Who Did the Derby Gods Frown On The Most and Why

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

My answer would be Union Rags, terrible start, checked sharply on the backstretch and still ran 6th. I'm not saying he was gonna win, but with a clean trip he certainly could have made some noise.

Completely disagree, and I liked his chances, but Union Rags always finds his own trouble. He has not improved since last year, and he is just going to always have a difficult time navigating big fields of good horses. I may have felt differently if he made an impressive move, but he never really took off. Creative Cause, Went the Day Well, and Dullahan all had more actual moves when going as far or further navigating the field.

The Belmont may be the only important race I would think Union Rags has much of a chance at.

[Calzone Lord]

Union Rags was 7th -- he split 6th place finisher Liason and 8th place finisher Rousing Sermon.

All of his early trouble was fairly minor and overrated.

A lot of times horses who have trouble like that in race shapes like that run as well or even a little better than they would have with a clear trip.

Bird Town, when she upset the Kentucky Oaks for instance, got jammed back at the start and lost a lot of position. The trouble was a blessing in disguise because it got her trapped and forced her back behind a hot pace that she otherwise would have been attending.

[Clip-Clop]

They frowned upon my gambling. My party was the best yet though so I cannot really complain, any wager made after 6 hours of drinking tequila and bourbon is bound to be a bad one.

[Calzone Lord]

Here's Bird Town's Kentucky Oaks -- she won at 18/1 odds after breaking very poorly from post #5 and getting shuffled way back.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGQ2CazIVBI

Bird Town was coming off back to back 7 furlong races. She set the pace in the Beaumont at Keeneland and was caught very late in her final prep. Her previous route try was a 4th place finish at Calder in the Fla Stallion Series race.

I think she was best in victory this day -- but the bad start and trouble saved her from being on the wrong end of the race shape.

[tiggerv]

Union Rags had 9F to recover and only needed a 102 Beyer to win with plenty of pace in front of him. As far as the Belmont, Dixie Union doesn't exactly scream 12F to me.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Union Rags had 9F to recover and only needed a 102 Beyer to win with plenty of pace in front of him. As far as the Belmont, Dixie Union doesn't exactly scream 12F to me.

Yeah. People forget that Giacomo got sawed off at the start and had to deal with a lot of early bumping in the Kentucky Derby the year that he won.

Bird Town's romping win at 18/1 was a better example because she actually had a lot of speed and would have been very forward with a clean start and no trouble...

However, Giacomo get sawed off at the start and Smith needing to grab him only assured that he would be further back.

I don't believe Mine That Bird had any early trouble at all. He just flat out walked through the early stages.

[NTamm1215]

Union Rags has collected a mountain of excuses in his last two races. However, I think some of the trouble he ran into in the Derby is being a little underrated on here.

After being pinched back at the start he was steadied in the first quarter-mile, already significantly farther back than he should have been. As the horses outside of him began to launch their bids he was in neutral, then ran right into Daddy Long Legs as he stopped and plummeted through the field.

Now, he is likely to be overbet again wherever he surfaces next. However, he has all of the elements of a horse that a trip handicapper will look for on a regular basis, as he has been given little to no chance by both his rider and the things that have happened within the context of his last two races.

Who knows what we'll happen in the next four weeks, but the likelihood that he is the longest price he has ever been in his career in the Belmont is extremely high, and he MAY have the tactical speed to work out the type of trip that is rewarded in that race.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm not a huge Union Rags fan, and wasn't interested in him Saturday ( I had to have one non-horrible opinion in the race ), but to ignore his trip is ridiculous. With all due respect to DrugS, his analogy to Bird Town is a poor one, as Union Rags had significant trouble, in a 20 horse field, that ( as Nick just pointed out ) put him in bad position to begin with, was exacerbated early in the running, and then even further complicated midway through the race. Whatever he might have done Saturday was completely compromised by his trip and it's silly to suggest otherwise.

[Thunder Gulch]

I'm just seeing Union Rags, who at the end of the day is still sitting on Beyers in the mid-90's. Thorograph had him a lot faster than Beyer last year, but by either measure he isn't showing development this year.

I get the Looking at Lucky comparison, however, he overcame trouble to win the Rebel signaling that he was improving. Then he catches the rail in the slop at KY, and ended up with a trip that made Rags trip look like a stroll in the pasture. I guess we'll know more from Rags in a few weeks, but I'm not seeing it.

[clambeau]

when Liason breaking from the 20 hole finishes ahead of UR.....whether you wanna talk trip or not, his lack of tactical speed and his uncanny ability to find trouble is doing him in....we'll see if a jock change can help but I just don't think this horse is fast or athletic enough to get in the clear and do any kind of running

[pointman]

The more that I have watched the race back, the more I think Went The Day Well ran a very good race. He doesn't need to be placed in the back of the pack to be effective go forward.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not a huge Union Rags fan, and wasn't interested in him Saturday ( I had to have one non-horrible opinion in the race ), but to ignore his trip is ridiculous. With all due respect to DrugS, his analogy to Bird Town is a poor one, as Union Rags had significant trouble, in a 20 horse field, that ( as Nick just pointed out ) put him in bad position to begin with, was exacerbated early in the running, and then even further complicated midway through the race.

That's the thing -- his trip isn't being ignored.

The only actual running Union Rags did came in the part of the race where everyone else was falling over dead.

I will admit I've come to detest Union Rags popularity more and more with each race.

When Union Rags won the Champagne in markedly slower time than My Miss Aurillea did in the Frizette (same day and distance)...he was made to be a superstar. He was made even money against a fairly deep BC Juvie field and she was made 2/1 against an honestly slow and weak Juv Fillies field.

When Union Rags got beat in the BC Juvenile. Hansen was loose, but he set strong fractions and raced on what I thought was the worst part of the track. Union Rags, got a setup, and had a clear wide trip on a track where saving ground was no advantage. Hansen was truthfully the better horse that day IMO, and most everyone wanted to make Union Rags defeat seem so heroic.

When Union Rags came back and beat News Pending and a Pletcher cripple who missed a work right before the race -- in a days lone route race where no figure could be trusted -- it was hailed as a super performance by some. The Ragozin Sheets somehow have Union Rags win that day faster than Bodemeister's Arkansas Derby ... and they kept the variant straight for the Ark Derby. That was mysterious to me.

Union Rags is 2/5 for the Florida Derby. He doesn't get a clear wide trip and the excuses start flying again. The Florida Derby horses have all bombed. Take Charge Indy and El Padrino both bombed in the Ky Derby. News Pending was 10th in the Lexington Stakes behind All Squared Up. Reveron, an 80 Beyer type horse just missed in the Fla Derby with a perfect trip and came out of it injured. The brutally slow Neck N' Neck was beaten 4 and half lengths.

Now all of sudden you've got people saying Leperoux can't ride or Leperoux doesn't fit the horse. Everytime the horse gets a clear wide trip he's unjustly hailed as a super horse (narrow defeat to Hansen, wearing down News Pending in a FoY where Ragozin botched a figure) everytime he doesn't get a clear wide trip he gets excused for a variety of reasons. He makes so much of his own trouble.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pointman

The more that I have watched the race back, the more I think Went The Day Well ran a very good race. He doesn't need to be placed in the back of the pack to be effective go forward.

He clunked up.

He'd make a tremedously good bet against if he ran in the Belmont.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

He clunked up.

He'd make a tremedously good bet against if he ran in the Belmont.

I disagree. He came from far back of the pack and was the only one that had real run of those from far back. That run was not clunking.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pointman

I disagree. He came from far back of the pack and was the only one that had real run of those from far back. That run was not clunking.

They ran the final quarter in 26.64 over a supersonic fast race-track.

That was like a 28 and change final quarter most years. Everyone was stopping late.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

When Union Rags won the Champagne in markedly slower time than My Miss Aurillea did in the Frizette (same day and distance)...he was made to be a superstar. He was made even money against a fairly deep BC Juvie field and she was made 2/1 against an honestly slow and weak Juv Fillies field.

Markedly? Hardly. .33 seconds slower is closer to "slightly."

I'm not a big Union Rags fan but you're way over the top here.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Markedly? Hardly. .33 seconds slower is closer to "slightly."

I'm not a big Union Rags fan but you're way over the top here.

You're right on the poor choice of words on my part. Still, it was 2 lengths faster and the pace call was identical (1:10.37)

I think Union Rags can be a Caleb's Posse type. I'd love to see him sprint again. I'm still a big fan of Union Rags and his ability...just not routing.

Did you know that he ran a 3.25 Ragozin in the BC Juvie and 3.25 Ragozin in the Fountain of Youth? No one is real close to him -- outside of Bodemeister's one 3.50 in the Arkansas Derby.

He's going to continue to get hammered at the windows.

There's never going to be much betting value with Union Rags. It's like some handicappers have put Matz on Jesus Christ's level.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

There's never going to be much betting value with Union Rags. It's like some handicappers have put Matz on Jesus Christ's level.

Matz had Visionaire (a Grand Slam out of a French Deputy mare) who was also an expensive 2yo sale horse with sprint breeding.

Visionaire was 19th by 10, 19th by 16, 19th by 14.5, 18th by 16, and finished 12th by 22 lengths behind Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby.

Finally he gave up on trying to make him into deep closing plodding router, and he won the Gr 1 King's Bishop with him a few months later.

Union Rags won the Saratoga Special wire-to-wire at 6.5f setting a 21 3/5ths first quarter. To me, he's just a horse with a lot of raw speed, an obvious sprinter/miler pedigree, and a horse who's closing punch becomes more watered down the further he goes. I don't even know who's going to be in the Belmont -- but if he wins it I know I will lose money.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Matz had Visionaire (a Grand Slam out of a French Deputy mare) who was also an expensive 2yo sale horse with sprint breeding.

Visionaire was 19th by 10, 19th by 16, 19th by 14.5, 18th by 16, and finished 12th by 22 lengths behind Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby.

Finally he gave up on trying to make him into deep closing plodding router, and he won the Gr 1 King's Bishop with him a few months later.

Union Rags won the Saratoga Special wire-to-wire at 6.5f setting a 21 3/5ths first quarter. To me, he's just a horse with a lot of raw speed, an obvious sprinter/miler pedigree, and a horse who's closing punch becomes more watered down the further he goes. I don't even know who's going to be in the Belmont -- but if he wins it I know I will lose money.

Every time you see an interview with Matz, he mentions that Rags will be better the further he goes.
Physically, UR sure looks like a one turn horse.