How good is Lava Man?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

What are you thinking? How many races has the horse won in a row? He's the best horse by far on the west coast right now. When you have a horse that is absolutely dominant on the west coast, they are almost always competitive with the east coast horses. Not only have some of his races been visually impressive, but look at the numbers he has run over the last 1 1/2 years. I'm not big on speed figures but when a horse looks like a great horse and the numbers confirm it, there's really no reason to doubt the horse. The horse has run some incredible races. His last two races weren't that great but at least he's still winning. Barbaro's win in the Florida derby was not particularly impressive but I still knew it would be a mistake to underestimate him becuase he kept winning.

If you would be stunned to see LM hit the board, then you must have been stunned by Stevie Wonderboy, The Tin Man, and most horses that have gone back east and won. LM has certainly been as impressive as any of the west coast horses that have been able to win back east.

I'm not saying the horse will win. I don't know for sure that he can run as well on the road. Not only that, he's had a lot of races this year. Even if he does run his best, he may not be as good as Bernardini. It's hard to tell.

I think running outside of California is a major if for this horse. I never said he hasn't run a number of terrific races ( my qualifications for using the word " great " differ significantly from many others ) though I'm not sure how many of his races I would term " incredible " , but my off-hand guess would be none.

I don't know California racing very well, so I don't really know the trainers' reputations, though I seem to remember Doug O'Neill ( he is Lava Man's trainer, right? ) getting into some trouble in the not so recent past. Perhaps that trouble is completely unrelated to Lava Man's ascent from claimer to Horse of the Year candidate, I certainly hope so, but I know that many NY cheaters don't enjoy the same success on the road that they do at home ( unless they go to that Den of Iniquity known as Delaware Park where even Wyatt Earp would be defenseless ).

I actually like Lava Man, he has danced many dances, and danced them well. He won on the turf and dirt. He's a throw back. I just think Bernardini is superior to him and his on the pace running style may work against him in a way that it hasn't in California.

[JJP]

I'm not so sure the track surface will do Lava Man in. I'd be more concerned about the lack of race-day Bute.

[Gander]

O the West coast tracks, great......Outside of California, very average

Okay, well please tell me how the East Coast horses are when they ship out West? Or are the East Coast horses too good to ship out west? Its the East Coast bias thing going on again on this board. It will never change.

When Saint Liam ran a dud out in California, he was excuse for it, it was blamed on the track surface. But when Lava Man was up the track in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last year, he is deemed an inferior and overrated west coast horse. Regardless of what he has done this year, all anyone ever brings up is that Belmont race. Oh by the way Flower Alley was terrible in that race too. But he gets excused for it because of where he is based and who his trainer is. Blah! I dont wanna hear this jibberish anymore.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by Gander

O the West coast tracks, great......Outside of California, very average

Okay, well please tell me how the East Coast horses are when they ship out West? Or are the East Coast horses too good to ship out west? Its the East Coast bias thing going on again on this board. It will never change.

When Saint Liam ran a dud out in California, he was excuse for it, it was blamed on the track surface. But when Lava Man was up the track in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last year, he is deemed an inferior and overrated west coast horse. Regardless of what he has done this year, all anyone ever brings up is that Belmont race. Oh by the way Flower Alley was terrible in that race too. But he gets excused for it because of where he is based and who his trainer is. Blah! I dont wanna hear this jibberish anymore.

And I didn't bring it up either Gander...

It will always be this way. Now Y'all know I am a FL girl so I really don't have a bias, I like a horse for the sake of the horse.

I am now rooting for Lava Man to do well just to disprove the doubters, but I have a feeling even if he loses by a nose, it will still be "He can't run outside of Cali"

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think running outside of California is a major if for this horse. I never said he hasn't run a number of terrific races ( my qualifications for using the word " great " differ significantly from many others ) though I'm not sure how many of his races I would term " incredible " , but my off-hand guess would be none.

I don't know California racing very well, so I don't really know the trainers' reputations, though I seem to remember Doug O'Neill ( he is Lava Man's trainer, right? ) getting into some trouble in the not so recent past. Perhaps that trouble is completely unrelated to Lava Man's ascent from claimer to Horse of the Year candidate, I certainly hope so, but I know that many NY cheaters don't enjoy the same success on the road that they do at home ( unless they go to that Den of Iniquity known as Delaware Park where even Wyatt Earp would be defenseless ).

I actually like Lava Man, he has danced many dances, and danced them well. He won on the turf and dirt. He's a throw back. I just think Bernardini is superior to him and his on the pace running style may work against him in a way that it hasn't in California.

I think your questions about O'Neil are legitimate. I think that the horse does need to prove that he can win away from California. I would understand if you said you still aren't convinced that the horse can win away from California. I wouldn't have a problem with that. But I just think it is crazy to for someone to say they would be "shocked if the horse hit the board." As I said, west coast horses have a history of doing well when they go back east. Even a lot of our mediocre horses such as Bob and John go back east and win. And when we have a dominant horse out here, they can practically always compete with east coast horses. LM is one of the most dominant horses we've had in 20 years.

Some of his races last year were unbelievable. He beat some good horses by about 8 lengths in the Hollywood Gold Cup and he ran a huge number. I think his Beyer was around 116. If you check his sheet numbers in some of those races, I'm sure they were huge.

It certainly wouldn't be a shock for him to hit the board. Aside from Bernardini, there aren't any great dirt horses back there.

[blackthroatedwind]

I am mostly interested in trying to find the best horse. I have seen plenty of West Coast horses win in NY over the years and East Coast horses win in California. The good ones, in the right spots, have done quite well. However, the ones who get good in NY from suspicious operations haven't necessarily duplicated that form elsewhere and the same could be said for California horses. This is the biggest problem I have.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by JJP

I'm not so sure the track surface will do Lava Man in. I'd be more concerned about the lack of race-day Bute.

We've gone over this a million times. California has the same bute rules as every other state. It has to be administered the day before the race. Some people think that since there is a little "B" in the Racing Form that it means that California horses get bute on race day. That is not the case.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by merasmag

put pval back on em

It would be a great time for a jockey change. Nakatani has only won about 7 in a row in him.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Gander

O the West coast tracks, great......Outside of California, very average

Okay, well please tell me how the East Coast horses are when they ship out West? Or are the East Coast horses too good to ship out west? Its the East Coast bias thing going on again on this board. It will never change.

When Saint Liam ran a dud out in California, he was excuse for it, it was blamed on the track surface. But when Lava Man was up the track in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last year, he is deemed an inferior and overrated west coast horse. Regardless of what he has done this year, all anyone ever brings up is that Belmont race. Oh by the way Flower Alley was terrible in that race too. But he gets excused for it because of where he is based and who his trainer is. Blah! I dont wanna hear this jibberish anymore.

Saint Liam had run at tracks all over the country and only failed once in California in his first try at ten furlongs. Lava Man has only won in CA and failed miserably all three times he left. There is a huge difference there.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I am mostly interested in trying to find the best horse. I have seen plenty of West Coast horses win in NY over the years and East Coast horses win in California. The good ones, in the right spots, have done quite well. However, the ones who get good in NY from suspicious operations haven't necessarily duplicated that form elsewhere and the same could be said for California horses. This is the biggest problem I have.

That's a legitimate question. I don't blame you for being suspicious about O'Neil. But there's a difference between saying you're not sold on the horse yet because of some of these questions and saying you would be "stunned to see the horse hit the board."

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

If you would be stunned to see LM hit the board, then you must have been stunned by Stevie Wonderboy, The Tin Man, and most horses that have gone back east and won. LM has certainly been as impressive as any of the west coast horses that have been able to win back east.

Those are totally different cases. Both of those horse ran into perfect pace scenarios and any decent handicappers could have seen them coming from a mile away. I made some money on both of those horses but will not be backing Lava Man in the Classic.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think your questions about O'Neil are legitimate. I think that the horse does need to prove that he can win away from California. I would understand if you said you still aren't convinced that the horse can win away from California. I wouldn't have a problem with that. But I just think it is crazy to for someone to say they would be "shocked if the horse hit the board." As I said, west coast horses have a history of doing well when they go back east. Even a lot of our mediocre horses such as Bob and John go back east and win. And when we have a dominant horse out here, they can practically always compete with east coast horses. LM is one of the most dominant horses we've had in 20 years.

Some of his races last year were unbelievable. He beat some good horses by about 8 lengths in the Hollywood Gold Cup and he ran a huge number. I think his Beyer was around 116. If you check his sheet numbers in some of those races, I'm sure they were huge.

It certainly wouldn't be a shock for him to hit the board. Aside from Bernardini, there aren't any great dirt horses back there.

First of all, I don't understand this supposed " west coast/east coast bias " or even " west coast/east coast horse " thing. It never really occured to me until seeing it on Internet message boards. I have even read mindless related stupidity on this topic wherein people suggest the Beyer figs have some sort of bias towards one coast ( if people only knew Beyer they would really laugh at how silly THAT is ). I don't care where they run, a good horse is a good horse, and if I felt it was a level playing field I would bet a horse from Jupiter if I thought he or she was the fastest horse in a positive situation in any given race. Bob and John? Of course he was the logical horse on paper ( OK, I bet Jazil, but the winning result was far and away my biggest exacta ). Simply put I don't identify horses by region....I do it by ability.

My problem with shippers is when I consider the connections suspicious ( which these days, for me, includes just about everybody ) then, at the very least, I need to see them achieve success out of town ( and not into known opium dens ). Lava Man's JCGC last year hardly instills any confidence. Obviously it was probably at least some sort of aberation but at the reasonably short price Lava Man will be in the Classic I am more than ready to take a stand against him.

Plus, as I also said before, his running style does not look to be advantageous for the likely race dynamics of the year's Classic. Since I consider Bernardini very much the horse to beat, and I apparently have a higher opinion of Invasor ( for better or worse ) than you do, I don't see how Lava Man fights off either or both of them and still has anything left in the tank for the remaining horses. I take stands.....and I loathe Lava Man's chances in this year's Classic AS THE RACE STANDS NOW.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Those are totally different cases. Both of those horse ran into perfect pace scenarios and any decent handicappers could have seen them coming from a mile away. I made some money on both of those horses but will not be backing Lava Man in the Classic.

As I said, I'm not saying that LM will win the Classic. I'm not saying that people should bet on him. I'm not even saying that I will necessarily bet him. I'm just saying that it is crazy to say he has no chance. He's one of the best horses we've had out here in years. He may not be as good on the road. I really don't know. But I wouldn't say that he can't win on the road based off one race in New york and one in Japan.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

As I said, I'm not saying that LM will win the Classic. I'm not saying that people should bet on him. I'm not even saying that I will necessarily bet him. I'm just saying that it is crazy to say he has no chance. He's one of the best horses we've had out here in years. He may not be as good on the road. I really don't know. But I wouldn't say that he can't win on the road based off one race in New york and one in Japan.

I agree with you there but why does everyone so conveniently forget about his Sunshine Millions at Gulfstream where he tanked as well?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

As I said, I'm not saying that LM will win the Classic. I'm not saying that people should bet on him. I'm not even saying that I will necessarily bet him. I'm just saying that it is crazy to say he has no chance. He's one of the best horses we've had out here in years. He may not be as good on the road. I really don't know. But I wouldn't say that he can't win on the road based off one race in New york and one in Japan.

Racing is supposed to be about taking a stand. No " I don't like his chances BUT " opinions do anybody any good. Like a horse....hate a horse...be right....be wrong....but have a f'n position!

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I agree with you there but why does everyone so conveniently forget about his Sunshine Millions at Gulfstream where he tanked as well?

That was way before he got good. He didn't get really good until late Spring/early summer last year. I was actually totally surprised by his huge win in the Californian. He had never run like that before.

By the way, I believe he did ship to Northern California and win. That is actually just as long of a trip as a trip back east because it is by van. It's about an 8 hour trip.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

That was way before he got good. He didn't get really good until late Spring/early summer last year. I was actually totally surprised by his huge win in the Californian. He had never run like that before.

By the way, I believe he did ship to Northern California and win. That is actually just as long of a trip as a trip back east because it is by van. It's about an 8 hour trip.

His Beyers for the three races prior to the Sunshine Millions were 107/107/101 and he'd just finished second to RHT by half a length in the G1 Malibu in his previous effort. Running an 83 Beyer and losing by 14.5 lengths to Musique Toujours the next race is more than a little suspicious in light of his efforts in the JCGC and the Japan Cup Dirt.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Racing is supposed to be about taking a stand. No " I don't like his chances BUT " opinions do anybody any good. Like a horse....hate a horse...be right....be wrong....but have a f'n position!

I don't agree with that. You can take a position without overstating it.

I will take a stand in the JCGC. My stand is that I will be extremely surprised if Invasor beats Bernardini. That's not exactly a bold stand. Bernardini will probably go off as the odds-on favorite. I think Bernardini will go off at 3-5 or 4-5.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I don't agree with that. You can take a position without overstating it.

I will take a stand in the JCGC. My stand is that I will be extremely surprised if Invasor beats Bernardini. That's not exactly a bold stand. Bernardini will probably go off as the odds-on favorite. I think Bernardini will go off at 3-5 or 4-5.

Nobody earns any credibility by being wishy-washy. Sorry but it's just too damn easy.

You want to " take a stand " in the JCGC? Fine, then tell me that Invasor won't be one-two, and tell me why, and then be right. Being a wise guy ( which obviously someone going against Invasor vs. Bernardini isn't being ) is about knowing when to go against the pack and being correct enough to earn credibility. Otherwise you're just another guy with a bad opinion.

I'm not saying this to be a jerk but to try to explain my position on what taking a stand is all about. I will take a stand....Fleet Indian will never win another race and I will be surprised if she even makes the Breeder's Cup. And, if she does, Baletto will finish ahead of her.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

His Beyers for the three races prior to the Sunshine Millions were 107/107/101 and he'd just finished second to RHT by half a length in the G1 Malibu in his previous effort. Running an 83 Beyer and losing by 14.5 lengths to Musique Toujours the next race is more than a little suspicious in light of his efforts in the JCGC and the Japan Cup Dirt.

Fair enough. But he did win when he shipped to Northern California.

I would actually hold his NY and Florida races against him more if he lost by 3-5 lengths. Then at least I could come up with a hypothesis that makes sense. I could hypotehsize that O'Neil is cheating in some way and he can't do it on the road and the horse regresses by a few lengths on the road. But the horse lost those races by 15 lengths. Even if O"Neil does have some sort of secret edge in California, it's not going to be something that improves the horse by 15 lengths. In addition, I've never heard that the horse is a really nervous horse or a bad shipper. If I heard that he was a really bad shipper and becomes a nervous wreck when he ships, then that could explain his poor perfomances. But since I've never heard that, I just think the horse was either knocked out and/or hurt at the end of the year last year. I know they said his feet were bothering him. I don't know why he ran so bad in Florida. It could have been anything. I don't know why Saint Liam ran so bad in California.