In Figures We Trust

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

This is more of what I was looking for.

I think that distances differences of even .5F do make a difference. They certainly make a difference for horses at GG, TAM, TP, PID, etc. (of the tracks that I play). Before we dismiss this as a case of cheap horses, this also holds pretty well at WO, where there are horses that excel going 5F, that can't sniff 6F; and 6F runners that are hopeless going 7F and struggle to get 6F. (Hopeless in terms of have zero chance to win, as I don't know what their numbers are.)

I think if Campo were to regularly card 5F, 5.5F, and more 6.5F races, along with the 6F and 7F dirt staples, we'd see this was also the case for many of the better quality horses.

I don't know how this fits in with Fastus Cactus, however, as he's won going 7F on poly.

Very much agree with this. Obviously, the cheaper the horse, the more susceptible they are to having a "preferred" distance- and it might be that they can excel at 6F and be hopeless at the same level of competition at 7F.

Given this- to me, the true champion horses are those that can win at multiple distances, for example sprinters that can stretch out and win the Met Mile or Cigar Mile, or routers that can cut back and win at 6.5F.

As for Fastus Cactus, winning on poly at 7F might have just been a case of being a decent horse beating a really bad bunch (especially since MCL $12.5 is the lowest level at WO.) Clearly he has SOME ability, since he's also won at a mile and a sixteenth on turf (even though that was a biased turf course) and 6F on turf, and ran a big race at 5.5F on dirt. I'm sure Dutrow knows he probably doesn't want to go 7F on dirt against real competition, but was taking a shot for the $48K purse and protecting the horse for a race instead of say tomorrow's $25K CLM turf sprint for $36K.