In Figures We Trust

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Interesting situation in SAR-08-30-10_R4

Two horses coming out of off-the-turf efforts, ran, apparently, significantly FASTER in their respective race than they ever had before. Now, I don't have the Beyers for these horses but I do know that they were incongruent enough for Serling to point them out; and, dismiss them. I do, however, have the BRIS speed numbers, and, I imagine, these capture the incongruence.

D'big Cat:
98
86
55
76
86
83

So, D'big Cat jumped up 12 points in an off-the-turf 5.5F sprint, claiming 25K.

Fastus Cactus:
109
94
87
88
84
82
85
81

Fastus Cactus jumped up 15 points in an off-the-turf 5.5F sprint, claiming 25K.

Now, RUDY trains the former and Dick Dutrow the latter but, still, the point is WHY are these figures so high, when, clearly, they're not representative, as neither horse won yesterday. (I have no idea what the number for the race was.)

I'm known as a critic of numbers but, surely, one has to wonder why these off-the-turf 5.5F sprints are coming back with such high numbers; both for BEYER (who should 'know' better) and BRIS (automated figures which, I hear, are not as accurate).

I think it's a function of the quirky distance. Really all you have to compare times against at 5.5F are 2yo races- obviously not a great sample size or scope of talents. Therefore your "par chart" would have a problem trying to match up 5.5F vs. 6F, etc. Since each track has a different 5.5F to 6F distance average time due to runup changes (like for example Pimlico has a very high differential- like 7 seconds- and Churchill has a much smaller number- just under 6) putting a "plug" number in doesn't work too well. Likewise, at Belmont Park when they run the 7.5F dirt races they often come back with too LOW of numbers it seems, probably again due to lack of sample size. I would understand it in this situation if Beyer smoothed the figure and left it out of the rest of the day's calculation. Then again, one could make the argument that a horse might be capable of running a 101 Beyer at 5.5F and be completely hopeless at 7F (there's plenty of those types at Charles Town.)

I think the best way to treat figures at quirky distances like 5.5F or 7.5F are to cross them out in the form and ignore them.

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Can't really go off one figure, but it being a juice thing isn't out of the realm of possibility.

And I know figs aren't your thing, but it's pointless to ever quote a Bris fig. They're not real figures.

They're real figures... just not real good.