Betting Music Note to Show

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Music Note broke through the gate? Sheesh, I wonder how I missed that. Country Star was pissy the whole time - she needed a lot of help to even get in the gate.

As a huge MN fan, I'm of course very happy. She did exactly what she was supposed to do to this field and I'm glad she got another Grade 1 win. I think Music Note was almost cantering at the end - she wasn't being asked and she ended up on her wrong lead, lol.


I wonder if she will run against older mares prior to the BC.............

Even though she broke open the gate, she never moved.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

What a damn mess.

A 5 horse field in a Grade 1 and they got a guy messing with Country Star - Music Note breaks through - and than Country Star gets pissed and rears.

I missed it.. what was the guy doing to Country Star? she was not happy before they put her int he gate so I rushed to place a ton of 5 w/ 1,2 w/ 1,2 trifecta bets. they scratch country star and I get a refund...

[Betsy]

No one is doubting who she beat, but is there a question that she's a very good filly? I'm going to ask this question on this board because I know I'll get an honest answer.

Does Music Note stand a chance in the Distaff (sorry, I'm not calling it the Ladies Classic)? Nevermind to win, but to at least run well? I thought the Alabama (after thinking about if for some days) would have probably toughened her up, but here she was beating cream puffs so we didn't get to see. I really wish this had been a better field - what ends up happening in races like this is that the winner doesn't get any credit and it's as if there was almost no point in even running the race.

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by Betsy

No one is doubting who she beat, but is there a question that she's a very good filly? I'm going to ask this question on this board because I know I'll get an honest answer. On another board I post at, there are just too many non-objective fans who either don't like Godolphin, don't like this filly, or whatever.

Does Music Note stand a chance in the Distaff (sorry, I'm not calling it the Ladie's Classic)? Nevermind to win, but to at least run well?

She doesn't stand a chance against Zenyatta. Tough Tiz's Sis has some synthetic form. Hystericalady has been on fire on dirt but laid an egg the last time she ran on synthetic. The wild card is how well Ginger Punch will do on synthetic (as she is a better dirt horse than Music Note). But they all will be running for second against Zenyatta.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by mbahadur

She doesn't stand a chance against Zenyatta. Tough Tiz's Sis has some synthetic form. Hystericalady has been on fire on dirt but laid an egg the last time she ran on synthetic. The wild card is how well Ginger Punch will do on synthetic (as she is a better dirt horse than Music Note). But they all will be running for second against Zenyatta.

What if Music Note freaks on the synthetic?

[Betsy]

Ugh, that's right.......I forgot about the synthetic. That's not going to prove a thing.....shoot. I wish Music Note could face at least Ginger Punch before the Distaff (she won't be facing PS again) so we could see how good she is on a real dirt surface.

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Ugh, that's right.......I forgot about the synthetic. That's not going to prove a thing.....shoot. I wish Music Note could face at least Ginger Punch before the Distaff (she won't be facing PS again) so we could see how good she is on a real dirt surface.

Ginger Punch is running in the Beldame in 2 weeks -- no way Godolphin runs Music Note back in 2 weeks against Ginger Punch. They could try the Spinster at Keeneland in 3 weeks if they want to see how she fares on synthetic. But she has had alot of races this summer (including a tough one last time out against Proud Spell) and I cannot see them running her again before the Breeders Cup.

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

What if Music Note freaks on the synthetic?

With Zenyatta at even money or better, you will get a nice return on your investment if she freaks on the synthetic.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by mbahadur

Ginger Punch is running in the Beldame in 2 weeks -- no way Godolphin runs Music Note back in 2 weeks against Ginger Punch. They could try the Spinster at Keeneland in 3 weeks if they want to see how she fares on synthetic. But she has had alot of races this summer (including a tough one last time out against Proud Spell) and I cannot see them running her again before the Breeders Cup.

good points, thanks! Yep, I guess she'll go directly to the BC - if she doesn't handle it and runs poorly, it's not necessarily a reflection of her ability and she'll get a nice long rest before her 4 year old campaign.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by mbahadur

With Zenyatta at even money or better, you will get a nice return on your investment if she freaks on the synthetic.

Well, I am not going to make any calls until at least they run a race on the surface. I have seen a long list of cant lose freaks coming into the BC only to lose when it was time to dance. Riboletta is the one that always comes to mind when I think of recent ones that couldnt lose. I guess you could throw sightseek in there as well.

Music Note has shown terrific ability. She is young, lightly raced and bred to improve down the road. I wouldnt be ready to just give the race to Zenyatta especially considering her likely price.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Betsy

No one is doubting who she beat, but is there a question that she's a very good filly? I'm going to ask this question on this board because I know I'll get an honest answer.

Does Music Note stand a chance in the Distaff (sorry, I'm not calling it the Ladies Classic)? Nevermind to win, but to at least run well? I thought the Alabama (after thinking about if for some days) would have probably toughened her up, but here she was beating cream puffs so we didn't get to see. I really wish this had been a better field - what ends up happening in races like this is that the winner doesn't get any credit and it's as if there was almost no point in even running the race.

She'll be one to look at, given she might be a forgotten 3rd or 4th choice in the betting. Really even if Country Star ran in this race we wouldn't have learned anything. Today's race was basically a paid workout, heck maybe workout is too strong an adjective. Walk perhaps is more fitting.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by CSC

She'll be one to look at, given she might be a forgotten 3rd or 4th choice in the betting. Really even if Country Star ran in this race we wouldn't have learned anything. Today's race was basically a paid workout, heck maybe workout is too strong an adjective. Walk perhaps is more fitting.

Agreed - MN would have won in a canter even with CS in the race. I don't understand why races like the Gazelle attract such bad fields - is a grade 1 win worth nothing anymore?

Today was hilarious (well, it was for me as a MN fan) - she really was out for a walk in the park. Tom Durkin's call was great.

[dellinger63]

[quote=Betsy]Agreed - MN would have won in a canter even with CS in the race. I don't understand why races like the Gazelle attract such bad fields - is a grade 1 win worth nothing anymore?

Today was hilarious (well, it was for me as a MN fan) - she really was out for a walk in the park. Tom Durkin's call was great.[/QUOTE

I laughed too! Hopefully she goes into the Distaff as the CHALK.

[kelster]

Too funny, we were at this race today Martin hit the pick 4 but we were all talking about the show money>>> how it would be a way better bet, you don't know these things in a multi bet before hand. He singled Music note and had all in the last leg, very chalky!

[Ronnie]

What kind of board is this with talk about show betting a 1/9?

Originally Posted by Betsy

No one is doubting who she beat, but is there a question that she's a very good filly? I'm going to ask this question on this board because I know I'll get an honest answer.

Does Music Note stand a chance in the Distaff (sorry, I'm not calling it the Ladies Classic)? Nevermind to win, but to at least run well? I thought the Alabama (after thinking about if for some days) would have probably toughened her up, but here she was beating cream puffs so we didn't get to see. I really wish this had been a better field - what ends up happening in races like this is that the winner doesn't get any credit and it's as if there was almost no point in even running the race.

she stand's a 1-10% chance to win, little to no chance at all, IMO....there are at least 4 fillies who are simply Faster then her, those 4 do not include Proud Spell, and Ginger Punch. The division is so strong this year that IMO she would have had a better chance beating Curlin in 2 weeks then she does winning the distaff.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

As long as she handles the synthetic track, I don't see why not. Other than Zenyatta, Proud Spell and Hystericalady, who else is in her league. And Proud Spell and Hystericalady are clearly different animals on the syntheic.

Well there is Ginger Punch " who i hate" but always ends up right there....
and there is Bafferts horse who almost beat Zenyatta and then came to Belmont and put up a huge Speed figure.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by Ronnie

What kind of board is this with talk about show betting a 1/9?

Pretty sad

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by hrfan

she stand's a 1-10% chance to win, little to no chance at all, IMO....there are at least 4 fillies who are simply Faster then her, those 4 do not include Proud Spell, and Ginger Punch. The division is so strong this year that IMO she would have had a better chance beating Curlin in 2 weeks then she does winning the distaff.

Oohk................I'm not going to bother explaining how Music Note beat Proud Spell (granted, PS had a nightmare trip - but MN lost two shoes, which no one seems to care about) and lost by a nose in the Alabama. The two fillies are thisclose. I asked this question on this board because I could expect unbiased, rational responses. I'm sorry, but your response sounds fairly biased against MN, so I can't take it too seriously. I didn't expect everyone to say that yes, she's going to win by the length of the stretch, but it's ridiculous to say that a filly as obviously talented as MN has one of the worst chances in the field to win or run very well. Nevermind Zenyatta, just what fillies are better than Music Note? I'm not going to argue Beyers. First, I have no idea what MN got yesterday and it doesn't matter, since she literally was cantering at the end. Second, I don't like reducing horse races to mere numbers just to judge who's better; I don't think it works like that.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Ronnie

What kind of board is this with talk about show betting a 1/9?

The actual return is better than the expected return based on probability. im not smart enough to show you the math but it exists.

I found an interesting essay here

http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/wb.../pp_03.125.pdf