1/1 Big A - New Year's Day

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

I am off the Aqueduct Speed Bias for sure...

I look at it this way......I don't assume biases. Obviously if we're in the middle of a sustained bias, and the weather hasn't changed, it's reasonable to expect it. However, in general, just handicap for an even track and see how every horses stacks up, strengths and weaknesses, and then make different cases depending on how the track is playing. In other words, understand horses you like that need a fair track, and horses you like only if there's a bias. Don't particularly marry yourself to any horse.

There will be plenty of speed types you can, and will, like on an even track. But there are also plenty of others, especially when you take price into account, who will be far less interesting on an even track.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I know that this is an extreme example -- and now that Keeneland is Polytrack, it is somewhat moot -- but did you handicap Keeneland's dirt races without assuming a bias?

Yeah, because as I said in my post that the bias was sustained.....forever.

[blackthroatedwind]

You just can't stop Joe Parker.

[blackthroatedwind]

He's been reinvigorated after winning " Barn of the Month " for December.

Who finished second.....John Candlin?

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Did you use him?

Wish I played the EX as it came back pretty nice $48...

[the_fat_man]

Nice triple, too

[Kasept]

$46,068 Carry For Thursday...

[pick4]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You just can't stop Joe Parker.

Obsolutely correct and remember that he turned down $2,000,000 for a horse right after the colt broke his maiden last winter.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by pick4

Obsolutely correct and remember that he turned down $2,000,000 for a horse right after the colt broke his maiden last winter.

He said he turned down $2 million. The reports were that it was more like $750K.

Regardless, he wouldn't get claimed now for $75K.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He said he turned down $2 million. The reports were that it was more like $750K.

Regardless, he wouldn't get claimed now for $75K.

I was just quoting what Mr. Parker said. In a world where a man pays $16,000,000 for a horse such as the Green Monkey, 2 million, or $750k seems like a bargain for Johannesburg Star. His ship came in and he decided to wave goodbye and let it sail out to sea.