Curlin to be m/l fav

[tycharles01]

Wish he would make NoBiz 3rd choice. No way this horse even comes close to winning, until he shows me he does not mind a jockey on his back NO BET for me. I would take Scat Daddy over him


Also if CQ still keeps up his nice workouts would def have to put him in the exotics as the BEST Closer in the race

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I actually think there are quite a few horses in this year's field that fit those four angles.

Yes, there are:
Circular Quay...2 starts
Chelokee...16 dp points
Curlin...3 lt starts, 0 2yo starts
Dominican...16 dp pts, 2 starts
Great Hunter...2 starts
King of the Roxy...10 dp pts, 2 starts
Stormello...2 starts
Street Sense...2 starts
Tiago...4 lt starts
(DP pts...prefer over 16)

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Yes, there are:
Circular Quay...2 starts
Chelokee...16 dp points
Curlin...3 lt starts, 0 2yo starts
Dominican...16 dp pts, 2 starts
Great Hunter...2 starts
King of the Roxy...10 dp pts, 2 starts
Stormello...2 starts
Street Sense...2 starts
Tiago...4 lt starts
(DP pts...prefer over 16)

OK, it's been a long day so maybe I'm lost, but how does Circular Quay and others fit your angle list with only 2 starts as a 3 year old?

1...3 preps as a three year old
2...raced at two
3...16 points or more in DP
4...at least 5 starts prior to derby

Initially I thought you meant the winner must have all 4, but I'm still wondering how a horse with only 2 preps is fitting your angles.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Yes, there are:
Circular Quay...2 starts
Chelokee...16 dp points
Curlin...3 lt starts, 0 2yo starts
Dominican...16 dp pts, 2 starts
Great Hunter...2 starts
King of the Roxy...10 dp pts, 2 starts
Stormello...2 starts
Street Sense...2 starts
Tiago...4 lt starts
(DP pts...prefer over 16)

It's also said that it's an advantage if a horse has more points in the middle category (classic) than the others. I like to see at least 8 points in the classic category. That would leave the following contenders out of the ones that already fit the 4 angles you mentioned (I put the number of points they each have in that classic category after their names):

Any Given Saturday (10)
Cowtown Cat (8)
Hard Spun (24)
Liquidity (14)
Nobiz (12)
Sam P. (14)
Scat Daddy (11)
Sedgefield (11)
Storm in May (11)
Zanjero (8)
Xchanger (12) - if he goes.
Teuflesberg (9) - if he makes it in.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

OK, it's been a long day so maybe I'm lost, but how does Circular Quay and others fit your angle list with only 2 starts as a 3 year old?

1...3 preps as a three year old
2...raced at two
3...16 points or more in DP
4...at least 5 starts prior to derby

Initially I thought you meant the winner must have all 4, but I'm still wondering how a horse with only 2 preps is fitting your angles.

Those are the horses that DON'T fit his angles.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Those are the horses that DON'T fit his angles.

Yeah I realized that but he replied to a guy saying there were a lot of horses who did fit them. (and yes, I initially thought the original poster was saying that all 4 angles needed to be met not just a combo)

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Yeah I realized that but he replied to a guy saying there were a lot of horses who did fit them. (and yes, I initially thought the original poster was saying that all 4 angles needed to be met not just a combo)

I know... I had to read it twice too. I need another pepsi...

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I know... I had to read it twice too. I need another pepsi...

Coke is better!

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Coke is better!

No way... don't get me started. <:-)

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by whodey17

While in Cincy this past weekend I heard a radio show with Mike Battaglia as the guest.

You should have stopped listening or changed stations at that point..... he is about as good a ML odds maker as he is a race caller.

[Pedigree Ann]

Forget dosage points. As currently formulated, it doesn't keep up with the emergence of new sires. Moreover, it ignores the importance of the females in the pedigree and that was important in Barbaro's case - his dam was by distance-limited Carson City, but she was an atypical Carson City in that she was successful at distances beyond 9f. Roman Dosage worked for about 10 years, but because he limited his outlooke to 4 generations, it quickly went out of date.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Forget dosage points. As currently formulated, it doesn't keep up with the emergence of new sires. Moreover, it ignores the importance of the females in the pedigree and that was important in Barbaro's case - his dam was by distance-limited Carson City, but she was an atypical Carson City in that she was successful at distances beyond 9f. Roman Dosage worked for about 10 years, but because he limited his outlooke to 4 generations, it quickly went out of date.

Barbaro fit the dosage profile (and then some.)

14-8-21-2-1 (46) DI = 2.41

[Mortimer]

Come back in 7 days.

[Cajungator26]

Interesting angles:

http://ezinearticles.com/?Kentucky-Derby-Tips&id=535899

Someone tell this guy (Brian Gabrielle) that Real Quiet didn't have the RAN curse since Raise A Native wasn't in his dam's SIRE line.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by merasmag

i am runnin on fumes here---WHO fits?

Any Given Saturday
Cowtown Cat
Hard Spun
Liquidity
Nobiz
Sam P.
Scat Daddy
Sedgefield
Storm in May
Zanjero
Xchanger - if he goes.
Teuflesberg - if he makes it in.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Barbaro fit the dosage profile (and then some.)

14-8-21-2-1 (46) DI = 2.41

Yeah...again, dosage is worth considering. It wasn't developed as a handicapping tool but certain aspects do seem to apply. The 16 points in DP rule has worked since 1950...only two horses since dosage became meaningful around 1940 have had less than 16 points, Middleground in 1950 had 12 and the great Count Fleet had but 4 in 1943. Only 3 horses had as few as 16...Sunday Silence, Lil E Tee, and Canonero II...SS now has 36 with new CDR's appointed, Canonero was So American so he figured to have fewer. I generally like to see 18 or more. Again...just something to consider and far from a lock, just a guide. I agree that the female lines are just as important, in fact I believe in the LH+ theories as put forth by Hahn and the Reines (female counterpart of CDR's). Also of note, no horse with more than two 0's in DP has ever won the Derby...Slew's Tizzy, if run, would be the only one in this year's field with three (4-0-8-0-0).

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Forget dosage points. As currently formulated, it doesn't keep up with the emergence of new sires. Moreover, it ignores the importance of the females in the pedigree and that was important in Barbaro's case - his dam was by distance-limited Carson City, but she was an atypical Carson City in that she was successful at distances beyond 9f. Roman Dosage worked for about 10 years, but because he limited his outlooke to 4 generations, it quickly went out of date.

Exactly. What most people don't seem to recongnize is that all dosage points mean at this point is how close in your pedigree you are to the old time stallions. They have become completely obsolete.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Interesting angles:

http://ezinearticles.com/?Kentucky-Derby-Tips&id=535899

Someone tell this guy (Brian Gabrielle) that Real Quiet didn't have the RAN curse since Raise A Native wasn't in his dam's SIRE line.

Yeah, I often hear people claiming Real Quiet broke the RAN Curse, he had RAN in dam's dam line, not in dam's sire line. Barbaro was the first horse to break it...there are about 8-9 horses this year who have "The Curse"...we'll see if one of them overcomes it.

[slotdirt]

I think there have been others who had fewer than 16 dosage points win then get their dosage points bumped up following the race. Real Quiet comes to mind.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Exactly. What most people don't seem to recongnize is that all dosage points mean at this point is how close in your pedigree you are to the old time stallions. They have become completely obsolete.

Perhaps, but it's just another angle that hasn't really been broken yet. Maybe coincidence...