First 2009 March Madness thread

[herkhorse]

How 'bout Johnny Flynn playing 67 of the 70 minutes.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

How 'bout Johnny Flynn playing 67 of the 70 minutes.

he's a heck of a free throw shooter! And clutch also! I think this team will go far in March (crosses fingers). With Arizona out I'll have to pick some team to go for!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

he's a heck of a free throw shooter! And clutch also! I think this team will go far in March (crosses fingers). With Arizona out I'll have to pick some team to go for!

I think all of the Big East goes far in the Tournament. They are just playing at a higher level right now than all the other leagues outside of the ACC.

The Big East could end up with:
3 #1's (Pitt, UConn, Louisville)
2 #3's (Syracuse, Villanova)
1 #4 (West Virginia)
1 #6 (Marquette)

That is STACKED.

[SniperSB23]

That was amazing last night. Thought I'd get to bed early to get rested for the St Pattys Day parade on Saturday so was watching it in bed. As regulation was ending I saw New Mexico-Wyoming tipping off on CBS College and thought jokingly to myself that I'd probably end up watching that game and mess up my getting to bed early plans. By the time the game ended there were under 4 minutes left in New Mexico-Wyoming so sure enough I did wind up watching NM choke away their at large chances.

Still five spots up for grabs although San Diego St has to be feeling pretty good right now with a road win last night.

Below them I think there are four spots for these five teams:
South Carolina
Florida
Temple
USC
Penn St

If all five win today it is going to be a very tough call.

Still hanging on:
UAB - If they beat Tulsa and lose close to Memphis they will push their RPI into the top 40. They scheduled non-conference exactly as the committee likes and have a road win at Arizona to hang their hat on.

VT - Need to beat NC and even then a 3rd loss to FSU might doom them. Win two more and they are in.

Auburn - If they were to beat Florida and then Tennessee to get to the SEC Championship game they'd be almost impossible to deny a bid.

Maryland - Need to beat Wake and then may even need to beat Duke or BC to feel safe.

Miss St/Kentucky - Both need to get to their conference championship to have a shot, even then they might need to get the auto bid.

Arizona, Creighton, St Marys, Davidson, New Mexico, UNLV, and Providence all have no more chances to impress the committee and have to hope for all the bubble teams with games remaining to blow up to get back in the field.

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by philcski

I think all of the Big East goes far in the Tournament. They are just playing at a higher level right now than all the other leagues outside of the ACC.

The Big East could end up with:
3 #1's (Pitt, UConn, Louisville)
2 #3's (Syracuse, Villanova)
1 #4 (West Virginia)
1 #6 (Marquette)

That is STACKED.

Marquette should be the first one out. They could easily lose their first game since James is out. Wouldn't want to draw any of the others. They could easily have 5 of the sweet 16.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by jwkniska

Marquette should be the first one out. They could easily lose their first game since James is out. Wouldn't want to draw any of the others. They could easily have 5 of the sweet 16.

True. They are still very tough even without their best player though, just don't think they have enough for a deep run.

I think WVU will open a lot of people's eyes in the Tournament. I saw a GREAT team last night who are coached at an extremely high level. Good for Huggins who has taken a lot of sh1t in the past for stuff that is kind of across the board in college BB these days like mediocre graduation rates.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

True. They are still very tough even without their best player though, just don't think they have enough for a deep run.

I think WVU will open a lot of people's eyes in the Tournament. I saw a GREAT team last night who are coached at an extremely high level. Good for Huggins who has taken a lot of sh1t in the past for stuff that is kind of across the board in college BB these days like mediocre graduation rates.

F*ck Huggins. What he did in Cincinnati was unprecedented, 27 of his 85 players during his tenure graduated (most in the early years) including a six year span where not a single player graduated.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by philcski

True. They are still very tough even without their best player though, just don't think they have enough for a deep run.

I think WVU will open a lot of people's eyes in the Tournament. I saw a GREAT team last night who are coached at an extremely high level. Good for Huggins who has taken a lot of sh1t in the past for stuff that is kind of across the board in college BB these days like mediocre graduation rates.

Jerel McNeal is Marquette's best player, yesterday's brain fart on defense notwithstanding.

Agree with you re: West Virginia, I think they're vastly underrated. Ebanks has really come on towards the end of the season and they'll always be in games thanks to their defense.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

F*ck Huggins. What he did in Cincinnati was unprecedented, 27 of his 85 players during his tenure graduated (most in the early years) including a six year span where not a single player graduated.

that really isn't any different from any other basketball factory, where they just fabricate grades anyways.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Jerel McNeal is Marquette's best player, yesterday's brain fart on defense notwithstanding.

Agree with you re: West Virginia, I think they're vastly underrated. Ebanks has really come on towards the end of the season and they'll always be in games thanks to their defense.

Fair enough- 2nd best player.
Ebanks is a stud.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

that really isn't any different from any other basketball factory, where they just fabricate grades anyways.

It was far worse. At least if you get a guy some useless degree he has a shot in life of landing a job somewhere other than McDonalds. They were just using the kids for basketball convincing them that classes weren't important since they'd all go to the NBA. Then very few of them actually went on to an NBA career.

[horseofcourse]

Is the Big East really that good this year? Or is it a case that it is finally a good conference to actually match the complete nonsensical hype they get every year when they are vastly overrated. Are 6 of the 8 eilite 8 and 3 or 4 of the final 4 really coming from the Big East?? Maybe all the new teams have indeed made it the supreme super conference. But since the NCAA tourney went to 64 teams in 1985, the Big East is at best the 5th best conference in tourney performance...clearly far behind the ACC, Big 10, SEC, Big 12. Are we now just seeing the effect of the additions of Marquette, Cincinnati, Louisville??

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Is the Big East really that good this year? Or is it a case that it is finally a good conference to actually match the complete nonsensical hype they get every year when they are vastly overrated. Are 6 of the 8 eilite 8 and 3 or 4 of the final 4 really coming from the Big East?? Maybe all the new teams have indeed made it the supreme super conference. But since the NCAA tourney went to 64 teams in 1985, the Big East is at best the 5th best conference in tourney performance...clearly far behind the ACC, Big 10, SEC, Big 12. Are we now just seeing the effect of the additions of Marquette, Cincinnati, Louisville??

Count me as one of those that hasn't bought into the hype. I think it's a good conference. I don't think it's anywhere near a great one. I think that 4-16, there isn't a conference that can compete with them. But their top teams haven't shown me that they are better than the top four from the ACC. I think people mistake parity for toughness. I don't think WV beating Pitt or Syracuse beating UConn shows how good those teams are. I think it shows instead how vulnerable Pitt and UConn are. We'll see how it plays out but I don't think there is more than one Big East team in the Final Four. If that.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Is the Big East really that good this year? Or is it a case that it is finally a good conference to actually match the complete nonsensical hype they get every year when they are vastly overrated. Are 6 of the 8 eilite 8 and 3 or 4 of the final 4 really coming from the Big East?? Maybe all the new teams have indeed made it the supreme super conference. But since the NCAA tourney went to 64 teams in 1985, the Big East is at best the 5th best conference in tourney performance...clearly far behind the ACC, Big 10, SEC, Big 12. Are we now just seeing the effect of the additions of Marquette, Cincinnati, Louisville??

Like I said earlier in this thread, the Big East has three great teams, four very good ones, and a bunch of dreck. 1-7, there's no other conference that can compete, but after that, it ain't much.

[horseofcourse]

Since going to 64 teams in 1985, the ACC has had 22 final 4 teams, the Big 10--16, the SEC...14, the Big 12...12, and the big East 11, PAC 10...9. And if you consider that 5 of those 11 big East appearances came in 1985 and 1987...it is even worse for the Big East. Just go the last 20 years and the final 4 appearances are...

ACC--20
Big 10--15
SEC-- 13
Big 12--9
PAC 10--8
Big East--6

Since 1985, multiple teams in the final 4...Big 10--5 times, ACC 4 times, Big 12 and SEC 3 times, big East 2 times. Years with no final 4 teams...ACC 6 times, Big 10--12 times, SEC 13 times, Big 12--15 times, Big East--15 times.

To be fair the Big East has done great when they get to the final 4 with 4 titles and 4 runner ups, compared to 6 and 5 for the ACC, 5 and 3 for the SEC, 3 and 5 for the Big 10, 2 and 3 for the Big 12 and 2 and 2 for the Pac 10. So of their 11 final 4 teams, 8 have reached the championship game compared to 11 out of 22 for the ACC. 8 out of 14 for the SEC, 8 out of 16 for the Big 10, 5 out of 12 for the Big 12, and 4 out of 9 for the PAC 10.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

Thursday update.
LOCKS
ACC: UNC, Duke, FSU, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: UCLA, Washington, Arizona St, Cal
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: Utah, BYU
A-10: Xavier, Dayton
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler, CLEVELAND STATE
WCC: GONZAGA

So that's 37 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 8 spots open.

Changes Today:
* Miami loses to VT, out of the running. NIT bound.
* Providence loses to Louisville, out of the running. NIT bound.
* Northwestern loses to Minnesota, out of the running. NIT bound.

ACC:
Maryland- As usual, they found a way to lose a game that they had to have, this time to UVA on Saturday. Now 7-9 in the ACC which means they have to win a few in the ACC Tournament to feel safe. OUT
Virginia Tech- 18-13 overall, 8-9 in the ACC, 2-8 against the RPI top 50, and 6-11 against the RPI top 100 after the Miami win. That's still a tough sell. OUT, but moving in the right direction.

Big East:

Big Ten:
Wisconsin- Keeping them here but barring a disastrous performance in the first round of the Big Ten tournament they should be fine, even with a loss. IN
Minnesota- Gets a victory over Northwestern in the first round. I think they are safe now. IN
Michigan- About to beat Iowa in the first round, they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Penn State- Ugh. I was rooting for them to get back into the Tourney but you CANNOT lose to a team like Iowa at this point of the season. Beat Illinois 2X and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? Not right now... OUT

Big XII:
* Oklahoma State moves into LOCK status because everyone around them keeps collapsing, and they just feel like a tournament team, unlike a lot of these other bums. I don't know for certain if they can afford a loss to Iowa State in the first round but given the way things are right now around them they probably can and still get in. Texas A&M earned it the hard way with a clinching win against Mizzou.

Pac-10:
Arizona- Does a win at home against #105 Stanford get you in? No, but it certainly cures the blues temporarily. Got a tough matchup with Az State in the first round and might need to win that one. OUT, for now.

SEC:
South Carolina- No bad losses but no real good wins either. The 10-6 record in the SEC is extremely hollow, but it's still a precedent- no SEC team has ever missed the tournament with a 10-6 league record that I can ever remember. Should be IN barring a horrific loss to either Georgia or Mississippi State in the SEC quarters.
Florida- They move back into the picture because everyone else sucks. OUT for now but that Washington win is looking better and better. Must beat Arkansas and Auburn, and 24-10 would be tough to ignore.

Mountain West:
* Two of the three teams that were in the picture last Friday will make it and they will work it out in Vegas this week.
UNLV- had a chance to lock it up and in the process, knock out SDSU but didn't get it done. They get a second crack in the quarterfinals of the Mtn West tournament at home- the winner is IN, the loser is OUT.
New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just IN at this point (as in, the last team in) based on tying for the league title, but shouldn't lose to Wyoming in the quarters or there will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this week.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN


Others:
There are one bid left under the assumption that the Mountain West has a knockout game, none of the ACC under .500 teams are worthy, and UF doesn't make a run in the SEC Tournament. Rhode Island took a loss they really couldn't afford on Saturday against UMass. Right now, I'd give the slot to St. Mary's, because I'm convinced they are worthy with a healthy Patty Mills and they have one shot more to prove he's healthy. Their resume is awfully thin, however, and are my last team in right now.

Friday update, with seed projections.
LOCKS
ACC: UNC, Duke, FSU, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: UCLA, Washington, Arizona St, Cal
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: Utah, BYU
A-10: Xavier, Dayton
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler, CLEVELAND STATE
WCC: GONZAGA

So that's 38 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 7 spots open.

Changes Today:
* Minnesota moves to lock status as even with a loss in their game right now to MSU they are very likely still in.
* UNLV falls off the board and SDSU replaces them.
* Rhode Island falls out of contention.

ACC:
Maryland- Struggled with NC State but got a win they HAD to have. Beat Wake today and I think they move to the right side. Lose and they're still OUT

Virginia Tech- 18-13 overall, 8-9 in the ACC, 2-8 against the RPI top 50, and 6-11 against the RPI top 100 after the Miami win. That's still a tough sell. OUT, but moving in the right direction. Needs to beat UNC (winning at the moment)

Big East:

Big Ten:
Wisconsin- Keeping them here but barring a disastrous performance against Ohio State today in the Big Ten tournament they should be fine. Their resume doesn't scream success, however. IN
Michigan- Beat Iowa in the first round, they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Penn State- Beat Illinois 2X, MSU, and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? Not right now... but very close. Another win over Purdue would do it. OUT

Big XII:

Pac-10:
Arizona- Loses to rival ASU and probably keeps them OUT of the first time in 25 years.

SEC:
South Carolina- No bad losses but no real good wins either. The 10-6 record in the SEC is extremely hollow, but it's still a precedent- no SEC team has ever missed the tournament with a 10-6 league record that I can ever remember. Should be IN barring a horrific loss to either Georgia or Mississippi State in the SEC quarters.
Florida- They move back into the picture because everyone else sucks. That Washington win is looking better and better. Took care of Arkansas, next up Auburn, winner probably IN, loser OUT. The 24-10 record would be tough to ignore.
Auburn- Been trying to avoid putting them up here but they keep trying to prove me wrong. Still a ways to go but they also have the 10-6 SEC record and essentially a play-in game with Florida. OUT, for now.

Mountain West:
SDSU- Probably locks up a bid by sweeping 3 games from the Rebels to go with their otherwise OK resume. Beating BYU would be a bonus and assure their bid but I think they're in pretty good shape. IN

New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just OUT at this point. There will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this weekend.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN


Others:
Rhode Island took a loss they really couldn't afford on Saturday against UMass and finished the job against Duqusne. Temple stays in the picture by routing St Joes. Right now, I'd give the slot to St. Mary's, because I'm convinced they are worthy with a healthy Patty Mills and they have one shot more to prove he's healthy. Their resume is awfully thin, however, and are my last team in right now.

Seeds
1: UNC*, Pitt, UConn, Louisville*
2: Memphis*, Michigan State*, Kansas, Duke
3: Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Villanova
4: Washington*, Missouri*, West Virginia, Xavier*
5: Purdue, UCLA, Gonzaga*, Florida State
6: LSU*, Clemson, Arizona State, Marquette
7: Illinois, Utah*, Tennessee, Butler
8: BYU, Texas, Oklahoma State, Cal
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, Boston College, Minnesota
10: Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan, Siena*
11: South Carolina, Creighton, SDSU, VCU*
12: St. Mary's, Cleveland St*, Western Kentucky*, Utah St*
13: Florida(Auburn), UNI*, American*, North Dakota St*
14: Buffalo/MAC*, SFA/Southland*, Binghamton/AE*, Radford*
15: Robert Morris*, Portland St*, Cornell*, East Tenn St*
16: Chattanooga*, Big West*, Morehead St*, SWAC*, MEAC*

Originally Posted by herkhorse

How 'bout Johnny Flynn playing 67 of the 70 minutes.

And he still had acceleration.
Incredible display of endurance.
He was the man for Syracuse.

The Big East point guards are really good.
I wish Texas had one of those guys.
UConn, Pitt, Syracuse, NOva (is Reynolds their PG?)
The others I have not seen enough.
I like all of them on these teams.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN

They are 5-5 against the top 94. Two wins each over #95 Evansville and #99 Bradley that I don't think the committee is going to treat as big wins. Giving them big points for 9-5 against the top 100 is like giving big credit to Niagara for 5-3 against the top 100 when two of their wins are over #97 Fairfield. When I look at Niagara and Creighton's resumes I'm not seeing much difference. Add to it that Niagara destroyed Illinois St in the bracket buster and then Illinois St destroyed Creighton in the MVC semis and I don't see how Creighton can be in and Niagara not even under consideration. Neither looks like an NCAA tourney team to me, even in a weak bubble.

[Crown@club]

Originally Posted by philcski

Friday update, with seed projections.
ACC:
Virginia Tech- 18-13 overall, 8-9 in the ACC, 2-8 against the RPI top 50, and 6-11 against the RPI top 100 after the Miami win. That's still a tough sell. OUT, but moving in the right direction. Needs to beat UNC (winning at the moment)

*

You can thank the refs for knocking Tech out. I guess Hansbrough has to knock the guy over to get called a foul these days.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

They are 5-5 against the top 94. Two wins each over #95 Evansville and #99 Bradley that I don't think the committee is going to treat as big wins. Giving them big points for 9-5 against the top 100 is like giving big credit to Niagara for 5-3 against the top 100 when two of their wins are over #97 Fairfield. When I look at Niagara and Creighton's resumes I'm not seeing much difference. Add to it that Niagara destroyed Illinois St in the bracket buster and then Illinois St destroyed Creighton in the MVC semis and I don't see how Creighton can be in and Niagara not even under consideration. Neither looks like an NCAA tourney team to me, even in a weak bubble.

i know, and it's a shame that Niagara that doesn't really show up on the radar even though their page isn't much different from some of the other teams that have had 8,9 chances at top teams are are 2-7 against the top 50. Here is exactly what the selection committee looks at on a team by team basis, I love this site.

http://www.bbstate.com/schools/CREI/sheet

[SniperSB23]

Thanks for the link, useful site.

Pretty funny that RPI #18 Oklahoma State and RPI #20 Siena faced each other in the Toilet Bowl (7th place game) of the Old Spice Classic.