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#181
08-24-2023, 08:41 AM
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^Nice pick with Coppola, thought you were going to get home.
Wagered: $240.00 Returned: $260.40 Dixie Pharoah was dreadful. Sy Dog ran OK I guess but Tawny Port was an hour the best. He paid $4.00 to place. 
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#182
08-24-2023, 08:50 AM
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Thanks theguarantee. I thought he was gonna hold him off. But still ran very well.
Thursday picks. I’m hoping these races can stay on the turf because there are some nice fields today. First bet: Race 3 - #4 Main Event 6/1. I think this horse had everything against him last time out. Off nearly a year layoff in 4YO debut and had the pace pressed a bit by eventual winner Jerry the Nipper. Granted, Kuramata (Brown), Unanimous Consent (Brown), and Grand Sonata (Pletcher) were all off similar layoffs but those barns tend to perform better off the long layoff than Weaver. I expect him to be in better shape this time around and I don’t really see any horse challenging him on the front end as I think Safe Conduct is too slow to really provide much pressure. Looking to wire them at 6/1 (or maybe better as I expect Easter and Kuramata to really get hammered at the tote.) Second bet: Race 6 - #9 Fauci 8/1. I’ve always thought this horse was a bit overrated but he’s certainly talented, finishing in the money in 14 of 18 career starts (only 2 wins) and 5 ITM finishes in 5 career starts at Saratoga (though no wins). I don’t love the post position but he’s now got Prat aboard and I’ll trust Prat to put him in good position to close into what should be a pretty honest pace. At 8/1, I think he’s worth taking a chance on. He’s been 8/1 or higher in 4 of his last 10 starts, finishing 2nd once (by a neck) and 3rd thrice (missing first or second by 3/4 lengths in each of those). Point being, he should be competitive here, should get a favorable pace scenario, should improve in 2nd off layoff, gets a jockey upgrade, and should be a nice price. I’m giving him another shot (no pun intended.)
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#184
08-24-2023, 01:19 PM
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Best Bet: Race 4 #4 Anthracite 5/1 - Interesting connections bring him up today and think just needs to get back to the race two back and show speed to be a factor in here today.
Best Value: Race 9 #1 Jumbly 6/1 - Not that I don't think this field is pretty good but I do think its ripe for a new face. Not sure how good Jumbly really is but I don't think the Euro form is far off the better runners in here and she figures to be the best price of the ones I think can win in here today. I also don't mind the idea of taking a Euro runner on the course despite the decent weather the past few days.
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#186
08-24-2023, 03:28 PM
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Quote:
$248.00 wagered $263.70 returned Friday picks. First bet: Race 9 - #6 Clairiere 5/2. With the addition of some forwardly placed horses, I don’t think Nest will get as easy of a trip this time out. I love Clairiere here and don’t mind taking a short price on her. Second bet: Race 8 - #7 Modern Love 12/1. I had originally handicapped this card with the assumption that all turf races would be off. This one stays on and I want to take a shot on Modern Love. They’ve tried to get her on turf a few times to no avail. Has a turf pedigree. Not really impressed with any of the likely favorites in here and she should be a good price. Last edited by moses : 08-25-2023 at 10:19 AM.
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#187
08-25-2023, 01:18 PM
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Best Bet: Race 9 - #3 Secret Oath 8/1 - The way I see the race unfolding I expect at least an honest pace with Idiomatic and Nest knocking heads a bit. I don't expect it to be that fast but honest enough. Looking through the rest of the field I think Secret Oath is the only alternative who's best punch gives her much of a chance. Hoping she makes first run and gets by those two and then will just be begging for the wire. It wasn't that long ago that she nearly held off Clariere in the Apple Blossom and while I don't think Tyler stopped riding or did anything wrong I got the sense that he thought she had the race won. I imagine that would not be the case if she makes the front today.
Best Value: Race 8 - #8 Lullaby Land 8/1 - If you think Anatolian is the horse to beat in here, and I do, I think you want to give a long look to this runner. When they met three back she was grabbed right away to get way behind a very slow pace going todays distance. I know she doesn't possess any early speed but I thought that was a bit excessive. She then made a huge middle move while Anatolian just sat a perfect pocket trip, let her pass and then finished up a bit better. Maybe that one is just really improving for Mike Maker but I think at the expected odds its worth a shot. I also think its a good sign Jose is back aboard today.
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#188
08-25-2023, 02:30 PM
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Posting Saturday picks as well. Race 10 - #2 Matareya 6/1. Race 12 - #2 Arcangelo 5/2.
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#189
08-25-2023, 02:44 PM
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With race 8 off ill pivot to race 6 #1 Air of Defiance. Loaded field and don't be much of a price but I think is getting a little ignored in the early getting sue to the rail draw which doesn't concern me as much as others in dirt sprints at the Spa.
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#191
08-25-2023, 05:08 PM
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Quote:
__________________
Game Over
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#192
08-25-2023, 06:50 PM
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Irad is such a thorn in my side
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#193
08-25-2023, 08:30 PM
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#194
08-26-2023, 03:07 AM
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Quote:
__________________
Game Over
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#195
08-26-2023, 08:37 AM
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Wagered: $256.00
Returned: $268.70 Anthracite was dreadful while Jumbly ran a very mediocre third. Yesterday Air of Defiance had a brutal trip breaking awfully from the rail (insert foot in mouth) closing well to get up for second paying a generous 5.10 to place. Would love to have seen if Secret Oath could've gotten the job done if Irad didnt decide the gameplan was to let Idiomatic get loose on the lead. Maybe Idiomatic was just best but that seemed insane to me and Secret Oath got back to a much better racing paying 7.20 to place. Still finalizing some stuff will be back with todays picks later.
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#196
08-26-2023, 08:52 AM
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Quote:
$256.00 wagered $263.70 returned
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#197
08-26-2023, 11:41 AM
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#198
08-26-2023, 01:27 PM
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Best Bet: Race 11 - #1 Soldier Rising 5/1 - I know he's not exactly the winning type but he ran well in this race last year and this years edition looks pretty weak. I thought the prep was an easy toss as he was all types of impacted by the Rebels Romance incident. The rest of his form stacks up with any of these and I think he's found the right spot today.
Best Value: Race 10 - #3 Maryquitecontrary 15/1 - More of a place play as I think Echo Zulu is likely going to win but I think there are some things to like with her. The last was too short as she's a bigger long striding type that takes some time to wind up. She appears to have gone a bit off form but I think its more muddled up. I don't understand why there isn't a new jockey today but I suppose that will boost the price. Needs things to really heat up but I think will be gobbling up ground late so if they're all gasping for breath late maybe she has an outsiders chance and I feel is at least the right one to try to get into cold exactas or tris. Wanted to make a play in the Travers and maybe there's some value getting against Forte, at least in my opinion, but I can't really decide if I prefer Arcangelo or Mage and just hoping one of the two gets it done for all of my multis. Good luck.
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#200
08-27-2023, 06:37 AM
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Quote:
__________________
Game Over
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Linear Mode
