9/20 (PRX): Cotillion (G1), PA Derby (G2), Gallant Bob (G3), Alphabet Soup

[Benny]

A bad bet, historically on Derby returnees.

http://www.drf.com/news/crist-histor...chrome-bad-bet

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Benny

A bad bet, historically on Derby returnees.

http://www.drf.com/news/crist-histor...chrome-bad-bet

from Crist's article: "Since 1980, six of the eight horses in his exact position – returning to the races after winning the Derby and Preakness and losing the Belmont – have lost their comeback race, most of them at short odds. "

This apparently arbitrary 1980 cutoff made me immediately think that the next one back would have been bad for the thesis. Sure enough, in 1979 Spectacular Bid came back to win the Haskell. Granted, he didn't add much to the ROI of the "return" bet.

I couldn't find out how Cananero II, the one before Spectacular Bid, had fared in his return.

--Dunbar

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

from Crist's article: "Since 1980, six of the eight horses in his exact position – returning to the races after winning the Derby and Preakness and losing the Belmont – have lost their comeback race, most of them at short odds. "

This apparently arbitrary 1980 cutoff made me immediately think that the next one back would have been bad for the thesis. Sure enough, in 1979 Spectacular Bid came back to win the Haskell. Granted, he didn't add much to the ROI of the "return" bet.

I couldn't find out how Cananero II, the one before Spectacular Bid, had fared in his return.

--Dunbar

The Bid returned after the Belmont in an allowance race at Delaware Park, set a track record, won by 17 lengths and paid a nickel on the dollar with the Shoe on him for the first time. The Belmont winner won the Haskell. As a 4 yo he won the Amory L. Haskell H. for 3yo and up, now known as the Iselin H.

[letswastemoney]

I don't see Untapable losing.

I'm less certain of California Chrome's chances. Bayern having to endure pressure from C J's Awesome and possibly Protonico may not be signifcant, but I also could see Espinoza on Chrome deciding he should duel with Bayern rather than let him slip away.