8/28: Saratoga (With Anticipation; $36k C/O)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: Mrs. Jeffords, F&M-4+, 19f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Jump season ends with a small group. Nothing clever to offer other than Brilliant Match potentially boosting exotics..

Most Likely: #2 Cat Feathers 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Brilliant Match 8-1 WON ($8.40)


2nd: MCLM/$50k, 3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

Five class droppers are featured among this modest assembly that looks to have potential as a staggerfest. Looking for runners who will at least have fitness on their side..

Most Likely: #4 First Bid 5-2 WON ($6.10)
Next Best: #8 Fruit Ludt 3-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Identity Crisis 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Aggrandizement 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #1e Ownership entry 5-1 6th/8th


3rd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

More gaudy C. Brown 'first out/turf route' stats in tow as he sends pair (#2 Kerjillion/#5 Offering Plan) with Offering Plan having worked a bit better for bow. Foxhall Drive (3rd at 9-1!) has sibling strength as half to Relatively Ready, but 7-2 seems low. Jim Lawrence 2nd timer Cosmo Storm adds Lasix for appropriate move to lawn being by Cosmonaut..

Most Likely: #5 Offering Plan 6-1 WON ($10.00)
Next Best: #8 Come Around 5-2 4th
Best Value: #3 Cosmo Storm 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Kerjillion 2-1 2nd


4th: NY-OC/C, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

C. Baker has struggled at the meet, but it feels like there are more than enough front end types involved here to give The Brothers Rap an honest target to attack in 2nd start off the layoff (26%)..

Best Value: #5 The Brothers Rap 4-1 WON ($11.80)
Next Best: #3 Saturday Appeal 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Onecat's Chance 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #1 Writingonthewall 7-2 2nd

5th: 10th With Anticipation (G3), 2yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Tough to argue against obvious types from Motion (Strong Coffee/Hot Tin Roof), Brown (Startup Nation), Pletcher (Designed for War) and Maker (International Star), but there won't be a more physically imposing colt in the paddock for this than Chris Van Culin's Nutty Futty (10-1). Modest Johar purchase was bred by Doc Chandler out of '99 Senorita winner Coracle and though a May foal, looks like a 3yo. Mellon Course should suit his long, loping style..

Best Value: #5 Nutty Futty 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Startup Nation 5-1 WON ($6.50)
Exotics Use: #2 Hot Tin Roof 6-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Strong Coffee 3-1 4th


6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 9f (G/S, P3, DD)

Very tricky bottom level N2L. Maximus Mike and Birds Gone Wild take the biggest drops and are the 4th and 5th choices respectively. Decarlo could simply take them all the way around on Maximus Mike..

Most Likely: #1 Maximus Mike 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Birds Gone Wild 8-1 6th
Next Best: #2 The Candidate 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Grandpa Len 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Successful Brothers 7-2 WON ($10.00)


P5 Grid:

2: 4 (A), 3-8 (B), 1-2-5-6 (C)
3: 5-8 (A), 2-3 (B), 4 (C)
4: 5 (A), 2-3 (B), 1-4-6 (C)
5: 5 (A), 1 (B), 2-6-8-9 (C)
6: 1 (A), 8 (B), 2-3-4 (C)

Simple main (A/B's): $72
Full (A/B/C's): $41.50


P4 Grid:

3: 5-8 (A), 2-3 (B), 4 (C)
4: 5 (A), 2-3 (B), 1-4-6 (C)
5: 1-5 (A), 2-9 (B), 6-8 (C)
6: 1 (A), 2-8 (B), 3-4 (C)

Simple main (A/B's): $72
Full (A/B/C's): $53

$0.50 Pick 4 (5/5/1/4) Paid $225.25


7th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Amazing Anne, full to turf routing Deciphering Dreams and Jung Man Scott, goes long on grass for Morley in 2nd start. Alvarado a plus. Any of the other 2nd time starters -- Momma Giovanna, Smiling Sundae, Moondance Joy and Battle Axe -- wouldn't surprise. Firster Jules N Rome has hinted at ability for Schettino..

Best Value: #7 Amazing Anne 8-1 WON ($6.30)
Next Best: #8 Moondance Joy 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Momma Giovanna Late SCR-Gate
Super Add: #10 Battle Axe 7-2 2nd


8th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Lady's Lunar Luck 3-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Scenario Analysis 4-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Edie 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Indian Starlight 6-1 WON ($8.70)


9th: OC/C, 3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #5 Heaven's Runway 12-1 WON ($10.60)
Next Best: #8 Stormy Rush 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Golden Rifle 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Chart Topper 5-2 6th


10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 6f

Best Value: #8 Okey Dokey Smokey 5-1 WON ($7.20)
Next Best: #1 King Gettigan 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Freddie Freud 8-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Mineral Water 8-1 3rd


P4 Grid:

7: 7-8 (A), 1/via SCR-10 (B), 2-3-4-5-9 (C)
8: 4-7 (A), 6-9 (B), - (C)
9: 5-8 (A), 3 (B), 1-4 (C)
10: 8 (A), 1-7 (B), 4-5-6 (C)

Simple main (A/B's): $72
Full (A/B/C's): $76

$0.50 Pick 4 (1,4,7,11/6/5/8) Paid $171.00 x 2 = $342.00


Good luck!
Steve

[saratogadew]

My longshot of the day comes in the 2nd. #7 Cairo Country. Switching to dirt. Good Tomlinsons. Good Pedigree. I believe he will get the distance. Will hit the board.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by saratogadew

My longshot of the day comes in the 2nd. #7 Cairo Country. Switching to dirt. Good Tomlinsons. Good Pedigree. I believe he will get the distance. Will hit the board.

i second that emotion....i had 4 of them today

race 2 the 7 hoss
race 5 the 7 hoss...
race 6 the 5 hoss...SCR.
race 10 the 5 hoss

Byk Boss Man is dominating this meet. All while carrying the stove. Thanks again!

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[ADJMK]

Interesting that both you and Kitan have the same price horses on top today
#5 Nutty Futty 10-1
#7 Amazing Anne 8-1
#5 Heaven's Runway 12-1
You both must have gone to the same handicapping school.
Problem is I like all 3 also so I don't think the ML will hold.
GL to all today and lets close the meet on a grand note

[hondo]

Hi Steve

8th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Lady's Lunar Luck 3-1 is the #7


OK got it now...Good Luck

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Interesting that both you and Kitan have the same price horses on top today
#5 Nutty Futty 10-1
#7 Amazing Anne 8-1
#5 Heaven's Runway 12-1
You both must have gone to the same handicapping school.
Problem is I like all 3 also so I don't think the ML will hold.
GL to all today and lets close the meet on a grand note

Doesn't matter what handicapping approach you use... When you're looking for viable alternatives to chalk or other low-priced/vulnerable mediocrities, it's easy and logical to find merits of horses like the 3 above. Nutty Futty is a stranger that will be underbet based on connections and may be as good or better than the choices right now; Amazing Anne an obvious breeding play; Heaven's Runway a logical pace play in field with plenty of speed..

G/L..

[hondo]

Good job on the early P4

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by hondo

Good job on the early P4

Thx hondo.. An OK result but left a big hit (1,900) on table in the P5 by being too aggressive.

[Alabama Stakes]

"veddy agraysive "

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thx hondo.. An OK result but left a big hit (1,900) on table in the P5 by being too aggressive.

That's a shame - to be honest, you have to be hoping that September 1st does not come around this year, Steve - your selections have been "en fuego" this season. I do not recall a Saratoga season coming/going this quickly ever before!

[ADJMK]

Terrific job handicapping today.

[Bogey]

Congrats, Steve - Another strong day. You're seeing the ball well.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

That's a shame - to be honest, you have to be hoping that September 1st does not come around this year, Steve - your selections have been "en fuego" this season. I do not recall a Saratoga season coming/going this quickly ever before!

Scott.. THX. Been a very satisfying meet and indeed has flown by. Hope everyone has enjoyed and gotten their share!

[Kasept]

Dave, AD, Gus..

Thanks guys. Very fun day. Hope everyone did well!

[JonRog45]

Steve. Unreal. Thank you!

[Kitan]

Awesome job with the sequences!

[Kasept]

Jon.. K.. Thanks a lot. 45 races left in the season.. Let's make the most of 'em!

[bahughes]

Great job steve