Junior Alvarado's career stats

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

* 8.5 furlongs Turf: 26-for-156 (17% wins) $2.16 ROI

What's interesting about this, that I didn't note in the first post -- is that they run 8.5f turf races on both the Inner Turf and Widener turf, at Belmont Park.

On the Inner, he's: 12-for-88 (14%) with a $1.34 ROI

On the Widener, he's: 14-for-68 (21%) with a $3.21 ROI


The Inner turf races at 8.5f at Belmont are virtually two-turn races, where as the 8.5f races on the Widener are more like one-turn races that start with a dog-leg.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

What's interesting about this, that I didn't note in the first post -- is that they run 8.5f turf races on both the Inner Turf and Widener turf, at Belmont Park.

On the Inner, he's: 12-for-88 (14%) with a $1.34 ROI

On the Widener, he's: 14-for-68 (21%) with a $3.21 ROI


The Inner turf races at 8.5f at Belmont are virtually two-turn races, where as the 8.5f races on the Widener are more like one-turn races that start with a dog-leg.

Would you take the time and do this type of breakdown for Maragh and Lezcano?

[Calzone Lord]

He's got a huge dance card for Saturday:

Race 1: ALW race: No mount

Race 2: Easy Goer: 30/1 morning line Howl -- the outright longest shot on the ML

Race 3: Brooklyn: No mount

Race 4: Jaipur: No mount

Race 5: Woody Stephens: No Mount

Race 6: Acorn: Tiz So Sweet (20/1 morning line)

Race 7: Ogden Phipps: No Mount

Race 8: Just A Game: No Mount

Race 9: Met Mile: No Mount

Race 10: Manhatten: No Mount

Race 11: Belmont Stakes: No Mount


Considering his stats in one-turn mile races, and considering he won the last major one-turn mile race in New York (Flat Out $15.00 in the Cigar Mile) -- you think he'd get a shot. Obviously, trainers and owners are entirely unaware of this stuff though. They just usually go by 'brand names' and win-percentage.

It's amusing to see Scott Stevens with a ride in the Met Mile. Over the last 10 years, he's had 4,052 mounts at Turf Paradise and compiled a win percentage of 17% and a brutal ROI of $1.33 -- the guy is a statistical cancer at Turf Paradise, and he's riding in the Met.

Obviously, Scott Stevens has a great reputation as a gentleman, though. HRTV did a nice piece on him and he came off as a very good guy. He's Gary Stevens brother. It would be cool to see him win.

[JJP]

At one point, Mike Smith had a profitable ROI for his career in races at 1 1/4 miles or longer. Wonder if he still is.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by JJP

At one point, Mike Smith had a profitable ROI for his career in races at 1 1/4 miles or longer. Wonder if he still is.

1,054 mounts
170 wins
16.1% wins
$1.94 ROI

[Calzone Lord]

Junior Alvarado got career win #972 today on 28/1 shot Blue Sixty Four in the 6th race at Belmont Park. Blue Sixty Four came into the race with a 1-for-49 record in her career.

It was a 6 furlong race that collapsed. Horse sliced her way inside of traffic and just got up. Paid $58.00 to win.

He still has to maintain a profitable ROI through his next 28 winners --- but it would take a pretty dramatic slump in order for him not to pull it off.

[RockHardTen1985]

I think he has a big shot in race 1 tomorrow on a decent priced horse.