Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek
The analysis of both trips.
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I discussed the specifics of both trips. Tell me what I said that was wrong. Where was Afleet Alex's big trouble in the Derby? Was he too far back? Was he too close? Did he ever take up? How did he have a bad trip?
For Smarty, how is having a clear lead in :48 3/5 in a grade I a terrible trip? Sure the race sped up the next half mile and he was getting some pressure, but what would you expect? Would you expect the horse to have an uncontested lead in really slow fractions in that race?
That second half-mile hurt Smarty Jones. There is no question about it. If he got no pressure that second half-mile, I'm sure he would have won the race. But that doesn't contradict what I've been saying. I've been saying that the horse who wins the first two legs will almost always regress substantially in the Belmont. How much they will regress is the question. Smarty Jones won the Preakness by 10 lengths. He could regress by 5 lengths and probably still win the Belmont. I think he ended up regressing by close to 10 lengths. Part of it was because of that second half-mile. If they totally left him alone and he runs the mile in 1:36 and change, he probably wins the race by a length or two. But even if that would have happened, I would still argue that the horse regressed substantially. It would have been one of those cases where he didn't bring his "A" game but still won because he was so much better than the rest of those horses. I'm not big on speed figures but I bet the figures show that he regressed substantially, even if you assume that he won the race by a length.
06-01-2014, 11:22 AM
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