5/24 (BEL): Toy Cannon makes 5yo debut

BigBlue · #4 05-22-2014, 09:42 PM

When I officially joined DT a few years ago with an interest in Toy Cannon, I was hoping for a few things. One was to get a little more involved in the sport which I've come to love. Secondly, it was to try and become a better handicapper by really watching and studying one horse from his first workout to his first race and beyond.

The first has been accomplished through following TC over the last couple of years - so much fun to watch and be a part of. Being at Churchill last year on the first Saturday in May with the fam knowing that "our horse" was running at Belmont that day - you can imagine the stories we were telling. It was a blast.

That said, as closely as I've followed this horse - I obviously still don't have all of the handicapping mysteries figured out. So, I thought I would share my thoughts about Saturday's race here and invite those of you that have an interest to weigh in. My list of observations about the this race are:

My speed figures alone suggest he's middle of the pack with this group.
His past class suggests he should be able to run with these.
The 3 horse may try to wire the field - he looks the fastest in race and has good works.
The 7 horse is the favorite and looks legit. Good speed figures, good finish last out, good works but he is stretching out.
Several of the horses that I would put ahead of TC are switching from dirt to turf including the favorite.
TC's works are never very fast but they're consistent.
I've never paid much attention to the blinkers factor but anxious to see what that might do to a horse like Toy Cannon who, as I understand it, seems disinterested at times. I've also noticed he does a lot of looking around during the race - don't know if that means anything or not. Maybe blinkers help that.
His only win came at this track at this distance with this rider about 2 years ago.

My head will play a 5 horse tri-box (3,4,7,8,9) and hope TC gets in the mix.
My heart will place a win bet on Toy Cannon.

What do you see and what will you do?