Offshore Belmont Odds and props

[tywizard]

Despite the hype I was thinking he'd be behind Chrome, Wicked Strong, Danza and Commanding Curve - Potentially ROC if Rosario stays with him.

[parsixfarms]

I would think there is little chance that Rosario rides Ride on Curlin in Belmont. They have already been discussing possible replacements.

I could see where it is possible that Danza might be a shorter price (given Derby odds and finish, and Pletcher being the trainer); I cannot see Commanding Curve going from being 37-1 in Derby to single digit odds in this race.

By way of comparison, in last year's Belmont, Freedom Child (last year's blowout Peter Pan winner) was the 8-1 third choice, and Golden Soul was 11-1. IMO, there is no question that Tonalist brings far more to this year's Belmont than Freedom Child did last year.

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I would think there is little chance that Rosario rides Ride on Curlin in Belmont. They have already been discussing possible replacements.

I could see where it is possible that Danza might be a shorter price (given Derby odds and finish, and Pletcher being the trainer); I cannot see Commanding Curve going from being 37-1 in Derby to single digit odds in this race.

By way of comparison, in last year's Belmont, Freedom Child (last year's blowout Peter Pan winner) was the 8-1 third choice, and Golden Soul was 11-1. IMO, there is no question that Tonalist brings far more to this year's Belmont than Freedom Child did last year.

I agree on Freedom Child vs Tonalist but disagree with comparing Golden Soul and Commanding Curve. The latter has a ton of potential. And people love closers. I don't see anyway Wicked Strong goes off at a bigger number.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by tywizard

I agree on Freedom Child vs Tonalist but disagree with comparing Golden Soul and Commanding Curve. The latter has a ton of potential. And people love closers. I don't see anyway Wicked Strong goes off at a bigger number.

I would expect that Wicked Strong and Tonalist, especially given common running line in Florida, to be close to co-second choices.

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I would expect that Wicked Strong and Tonalist, especially given common running line in Florida, to be close to co-second choices.

Continuing the comparisons...Wicked Strong is a lot like Revolutionary...Similar style and nicely bred...He went off as 2nd choice last year.

I also think the Derby form held up well in the Preakness so people are likely to project that to the Belmont Stakes.

I happen to like Tonalist but I suppose if he were second choice I'd take a long look at wagering on Wicked Strong.