The Derby figure

[Calzone Lord]

One more note...

The last major 'headline grabbing' speed figure controversy at Churchill Downs involved the 2012 Kentucky Jockey Club. Pay attention to Ken McPeek's comments in the link:

http://www.drf.com/news/churchill-do...ey-club-stakes


Here are the subsequent past performances for the top 11 finishers of this race, through June of their 3-year-old season.










As you can see...

* The top 5 finishers of this race were a combined 0-for-22 in subsequent starts through the first half of the following year.

* The top 11 finishers of this race were a combined 1-for-37 in subsequent starts over that period ... and the lone win came on a synthetic surface by Java's War in the Blue Grass. His odds were just 4/1.

I am sure there's some merit to what Kenny McPeek said...and fudging the number upward from a 76 might have been the prudent thing to do. However, the figure was slow and the figure does matter.

[miraja2]

Thanks for the good analysis. In terms of playing the Preakness it seems that the logical conclusion from this appears to be that people should take a serious look at any of the horses who aren't coming out of the Derby.
But without Untapable running, are there going to be any non-Derby starters worth playing?

[tanner12oz]

Pablo del Monte ran a very solid race at keeneland off the bench...think he can easily compete with continued progression...the local md horses seem to clunk up frequently at big numbers

[Port Conway Lane]

5/17/14 Preakness 1 3/16M - PIM:

California Chrome (Sherman)
Danza (Pletcher)
Ride On Curlin (Gowan)
Social Inclusion (M. Azpurua)
Kid Cruz (Rice)
Dynamic Impact (Casse)
Bayern (Baffert)
Pablo Del Monte (Ward)
Ring Weekend (Motion)__________________

One question I would have to ask is which of the above horses would have run faster in the derby. If the answer is none then every one of them is as suspect as the derby runners.

Danza was gaining ground late on the winner and appears to be the biggest threat to win the Preakness.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

5/17/14 Preakness 1 3/16M - PIM:

California Chrome (Sherman)
Danza (Pletcher)
Ride On Curlin (Gowan)
Social Inclusion (M. Azpurua)
Kid Cruz (Rice)
Dynamic Impact (Casse)
Bayern (Baffert)
Pablo Del Monte (Ward)
Ring Weekend (Motion)__________________

One question I would have to ask is which of the above horses would have run faster in the derby. If the answer is none then every one of them is as suspect as the derby runners.

Danza was gaining ground late on the winner and appears to be the biggest threat to win the Preakness.

Watch but do not touch for me.

[Kasept]

Beyer at noon on ATR..

[Gaelic Storm]

Great Analysis. There are 6 or 7 horses that had trips where someone said they would have been 2nd or 3rd with a better trip, but with how the race played out I keep thinking there are no trips in slow race. Should trips be downgraded out of the derby?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

5/17/14 Preakness 1 3/16M - PIM:

California Chrome (Sherman)
Danza (Pletcher)
Ride On Curlin (Gowan)
Social Inclusion (M. Azpurua)
Kid Cruz (Rice)
Dynamic Impact (Casse)
Bayern (Baffert)
Pablo Del Monte (Ward)
Ring Weekend (Motion)__________________

One question I would have to ask is which of the above horses would have run faster in the derby. If the answer is none then every one of them is as suspect as the derby runners.

I'm going to take a shot with a new shooter. Probably Social Inclusion.

Betting the Preakness, is usually as simple as analyzing the Derby.

After the 2013 Derby, Orb was compared to Easy Goer by the most reputable organizations. After the 2000 Derby, Fusaichi Pegasus was supposedly sold to Coolmore for $65 million. After this years Derby... people want to pretend this race wasn't slow.

Whenever a post time favorite wins the Derby by a clear-cut margin -- they're generally extravagantly overrated.

Was Orb the next Easy Goer? No.

Was Fusaichi Pegasus worth the $65 million he sold for? No.

I remember people actually arguing that Street Sense was a conclusive Kentucky Derby winner and would-be Triple Crown winner...after he got an unbelievably lucky run up the rail, without a straw in his path. He was nowhere in the Breeders' Cup Classic, but the two Derby excuse horses Curlin (trip) and Hard Spun (pace) made up a $70.80 exacta in that Breeders' Cup Classic.

I asked a few girls on Twitter who wore big, silly, stupid hats to the Kentucky Derby. They basically said 'it was a little windy, but the wind wasn't all that bad.'

I think this is another case of a clear-cut favorite Derby winner, winning by a clear margin, and getting too much credit for his performance.

Big Brown was the last Derby who delivered an overwhelmingly dominant performance. But go back and look at his Preakness. It was very slow (just a 100 Beyer) and re-reading those threads would make for good entertainment.

[Calzone Lord]

Start reading with Post #10: http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22616

This was almost as entertaining as the Street Sense and Orb stuff after the Derby.

[10 pnt move up]

I dont see nearly the type of hype with CC that there was with the horse you have used, if anything there seems to be a backlash you dont see with horses with his form and ease of wins at this point in the trail.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Start reading with Post #10: http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22616

This was almost as entertaining as the Street Sense and Orb stuff after the Derby.

That DrugS dude was pretty edgy.

As for the hat wearing Derby attendees -- Churchill is built so you're shielded from the wind for the most part as long as you are on the first floor. You also have all of those extra structures that they put up on the first turn. On the telecast they were showing people in the higher up seats and they were definitely being affected by the wind.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I'm going to take a shot with a new shooter. Probably Social Inclusion.

Betting the Preakness, is usually as simple as analyzing the Derby.

After the 2013 Derby, Orb was compared to Easy Goer by the most reputable organizations. After the 2000 Derby, Fusaichi Pegasus was supposedly sold to Coolmore for $65 million. After this years Derby... people want to pretend this race wasn't slow.

Whenever a post time favorite wins the Derby by a clear-cut margin -- they're generally extravagantly overrated.

Was Orb the next Easy Goer? No.

Was Fusaichi Pegasus worth the $65 million he sold for? No.

I remember people actually arguing that Street Sense was a conclusive Kentucky Derby winner and would-be Triple Crown winner...after he got an unbelievably lucky run up the rail, without a straw in his path. He was nowhere in the Breeders' Cup Classic, but the two Derby excuse horses Curlin (trip) and Hard Spun (pace) made up a $70.80 exacta in that Breeders' Cup Classic.

I asked a few girls on Twitter who wore big, silly, stupid hats to the Kentucky Derby. They basically said 'it was a little windy, but the wind wasn't all that bad.'

I think this is another case of a clear-cut favorite Derby winner, winning by a clear margin, and getting too much credit for his performance.

Big Brown was the last Derby who delivered an overwhelmingly dominant performance. But go back and look at his Preakness. It was very slow (just a 100 Beyer) and re-reading those threads would make for good entertainment.

it amazes me each year to hear people say 'this horse is the one'. since the tc is so seldom won, i find it surprising how many are so quick to say it's about to happen. obviously cc is the only one who can win it this year, but it's certainly far from a given that he will do so.

[Mack]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I'm going to take a shot with a new shooter. Probably Social Inclusion.

He can certainly improve off his Wood effort, but getting caught by Samraat, who had every chance in the Derby and just wasn't good enough, gives me some concern about Social Inclusion.

He attended the pace and was hung wide early. It was a solid effort. But if the Derby pace wasn't strong, then neither was the Wood. But he made me more of a believer than his perfect trip GP efforts did.

I'm interested in Pablo Del Monte if I can get a big enough price. His BG effort was strong into a pace collapse. He had decent efforts on dirt at GP. May be a synthetic lover though.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Mack

He can certainly improve off his Wood effort, but getting caught by Samraat, who had every chance in the Derby and just wasn't good enough, gives me some concern about Social Inclusion.

He attended the pace and was hung wide early. It was a solid effort. But if the Derby pace wasn't strong, then neither was the Wood. But he made me more of a believer than his perfect trip GP efforts did.

The Wood was Social Inclusion's 3rd lifetime race. Beyer (and others) correctly predicted that he would be unable to handle the jump to a Grade I in his 3rd start. He was completely washed out before the race began.

Whether he can win the Preakness in his 4th start is open to question, but I think he'll be competitive with CC.

--Dunbar