Looking at the pedigrees of recent Derby winners

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yeah, Wildcat Red is loaded with stamina on the bottom. People see a sprint sire and wanted to dismiss at 8.5f and 9f.

But, his dam Racene was a stoutly bred deep closer who once won at ten furlongs. She is sired by Miner's Mark, a horse who won the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Almost everything I read about Wildcat Red, says he can't win The Derby, almost every handicapper says he is a toss in The Derby, But the fact is from 6 furlongs to 1 1/8 mile he is 5 for 7 with 2 seconds , 1 by a neck and the other by a head, To me he is almost undefeated 7 for 7, two losses in a photo. How many horses have won the Hutch, The Fountain of Youth, and The Florida Derby,(I know he lost The Florida Derby by a neck)(If Johny V did not open the rail for Pletcher's horse, Wilcat Red wins by 2) Calzone Lord, I know you know almost everything, of all the horses that won all three, how did they fare in The Derby? And seriously, what do you think of Wildcat Red's chances next Saturday? Thank You

[GenuineRisk]

I have an acquaintance who travelled halfway across the country to buy a mare as a broodmare prospect for $1000 because she was a granddaughter of Seattle Slew. Needless to say, it would have been cheaper to just light $1000 and throw it in the street because it would have saved on transport costs.

I like your articles as I don't know much about pedigree handicapping, other than speed on top stamina on bottom allegedly being good for classic distances.

I guess I shouldn't judge my acquaintance too much. The past few Derbies I'd have saved money by, instead of wagering, lighting my money on fire and throwing it in the street because I'd have saved on subway fare to Aqueduct.

[Calzone Lord]

The Derby is about as brutal of a race to handicap as you'll see all year...but it's also a great race to analyze after it is over.

Really, the most exciting and anticipatory thing about the Derby -- should be the moment when the pace figures and speed figures are released...allowing you to finally fire up the DVR and watch the replay, which includes the greatest angle of all...the overhead blimp shot!

In a sane world, the Preakness should be the most anticipated race.

The Derby answers all of the many questions you don't know. The Preakness is a test of whether or not you have a good opinion...

And by the Belmont, you're left dealing with more questions. Between the unusual 12 furlong distance, and wondering who has or hasn't been knocked out by the meat-grinder Triple Crown series, it's also a very challenging race to handicap...generally speaking.

[cakes44]

Umm...yeah...SO WHO FITS THIS YEAR?

[Calzone Lord]

Some are easier to categorize than others ... but if I had to make a call on all 20 -- this would be it.

Sprint oriented:

Vicar's In Trouble
Ride On Curlin
Medal Count
Vinceremos
Harry's Holiday


Versatile or distance neutral:

California Chrome
Saamrat
Dance With Fate
Intense Holiday
Taptiure
Ring Weekend
General a Rod
Candy Boy

Route oriented:

Wicked Strong
Danza
Hoppertunity
Wildcat Red
We Miss Arite
Chitu
Uncle Sigh

[cakes44]

I was kinda starting to like medal count and ride on curlin. I'll have to take this into account though.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I was kinda starting to like medal count and ride on curlin. I'll have to take this into account though.

Medal Count's dam was a confirmed sprinter, who handled both surfaces. He's also a half sib to a horse who broke it's maiden impressively going 4.5 furlongs at Keeneland for Pletcher. She actually beat Rachel Alexandra in the 6f Debutante at Churchill Downs early on in her 2yo season. She ran a 6 Beyer when they tried to stretch her out.

Obviously, Medal Count gets a huge boost, in stamina, from being sired by Dynaformer, but he's the most glamorous name of any sire in the race.

Dale Romans is a beast on these big days at Churchill. He's pulled off some crazy upsets. A decrepit Court Vision winning the BC Mile off of lousy Dutrow Jr. form. Sassy Image was another who won a big stake despite being my first throwout in the race. Little Mike looked like Lure on the Derby undercard. His record is just great on the biggest days at CD. That's the only thing I respect about Medal Count.

[jstears]

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

Almost everything I read about Wildcat Red, says he can't win The Derby, almost every handicapper says he is a toss in The Derby, But the fact is from 6 furlongs to 1 1/8 mile he is 5 for 7 with 2 seconds , 1 by a neck and the other by a head, To me he is almost undefeated 7 for 7, two losses in a photo. How many horses have won the Hutch, The Fountain of Youth, and The Florida Derby,(I know he lost The Florida Derby by a neck)(If Johny V did not open the rail for Pletcher's horse, Wilcat Red wins by 2) Calzone Lord, I know you know almost everything, of all the horses that won all three, how did they fare in The Derby? And seriously, what do you think of Wildcat Red's chances next Saturday? Thank You

I'm a firm believer of Wildcat Red but not digging the way he's been galloping at Churchill so far. He'll be all over my tickets come Sunday though.