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#1
03-27-2014, 12:48 AM
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#15 Simenon I think has an outside chance to beat Cavalryman. He's getting a 2nd run over the Meydan turf off a 5-month layoff, where Cavalryman beat him easily 3 weeks ago. But this horse relishes the extra ground, and is definitely eligible to improve. And, I think he's run against some big-tymers since his last 3 races before the layoff were the Hong Kong Vase, Japan Cup and Melbourne Cup. So he's battle tested. I doubt you'll get that 20-1 ML price, but I'd take half that and be happy. #1 Dabadiyan and #13 Sheikzayadroad are steady horses that have had plenty of runs over this surface and also think like going longer. So I think they're decent plays underneath at long odds.
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Facebook- Peter May Jr. Twitter- @pmayjr You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin' If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... 
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#2
03-27-2014, 01:14 AM
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#3 Cooptado is a Southern Hemisphere 3 year old bred/run in Argentina, so he's not eligible for the Derby (Southern Hemisphere horses aren't eligible for the Derby, because they're actually age 4 by US standards). In 7 lifetime starts in Argentina, he's never finished off the board in some of their biggest dirt/turf races. He's never run outside Argentina or run on synth, but the way he's handled the other 2 surfaces, I doubt this will be an issue for him if he shipped ok. He's also already run at 1 1/4, 1 5/16 and 1 1/2 miles in his short career. Very dangerous at a nice price if the ML odds hold. #5 Giovani Boldini hasn't run since finishing 2nd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf last November. But this is Aiden O'Brien/Coolmore, who's won this race multiple times in the past (including last year with Lines of Battle). The horse's only 2 wins are over a synthetic surface, and hasn't finished off the board in his 4 career starts. He'll probably be the favorite, and deservingly so, but the horse has never run further than a mile. Combo that with this being his first start since November and trying to go 1 3/16 miles, I'm trying to beat him. But if he does take care of business, HE'LL DEFINITELY BE IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY next start. #12 King Rubi might be the longest shot on the board, but something should be said for the fact that in his 2 starts over synth surfaces in France, he has 2 wins. He won his last race going 1 3/16 miles over synth off a layoff since November. So this will be his 2nd start off the shelf over a surface he'll probably like. He probably hasn't faced this level of competition, but this race is a "next logical step" race for him IMO. I have no idea what his connections would do if they finished well enough to go to KY. He's an inferior turf horse, so maybe they'd actually try going to KY.
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Facebook- Peter May Jr. Twitter- @pmayjr You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin' If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... Last edited by pmayjr : 03-27-2014 at 01:49 AM.
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#3
03-27-2014, 01:48 AM
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5th (11:03) Al Quoz Sprint (G1)
About 5 Furlongs (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000 1 1 Joy And Fun (NZ) Doyle B Cruz Derek 126 20-1 2 2 Sole Power (GB) Moore R Lynam Eddie 126 6-1 3 3 Sholaan (IRE) Buick W T Selvaratnam Dhruba J 126 50-1 4 4 Medicean Man (GB) Bentley H Gask Jeremy 126 15-1 5 5 Beat Baby (IRE) Graberg P Petersen Niels 126 50-1 6 6 Hamza (IRE) Callan N Ryan Kevin A 126 15-1 7 7 Berlino Di Tiger (BRZ) Goncalves L Caramori Eduardo 126 30-1 8 8 Amber Sky (AUS) Moreira J Yiu Ricky 126 8-1 9 9 Dux Scholar (GB) Dobbs P J Watson Doug 126 15-1 10 10 Catcall (FR) Peslier O Sogorb Philippe 126 15-1 11 11 Ahtoug (GB) Barzalona M Appleby Charles 126 12-1 12 12 Shea Shea (SAF) Soumillon C de Kock Michael F 126 1-1 Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / Daily Double [/quote] Shea Shea is the big favorite in here, because he loves this distance and the surface. BUT! I'M STILL COMPLETELY PLAYING AGAINST. This is a very salty bunch he's going against. He's beaten some of these, but there are a lot in here that have pretty impressive resumes. There are 2 Hong Kong shippers in here. They have some of the fastest turf sprinters in the world there, and that's the angle I'm using here. #8 Amber Sky has solely raced in the best sprint races in Hong Kong. He's in top form, and loves going 5f. If he takes to the Dubai surface, he'll be a monster here. I doubt he'll be 8-1 as the ML suggests, but I'd be happy with 9/2 if I could get those odds. #1 Joy and Fun is also HK-based. He's 11 years old, but still going strong. He's run in this race the past 2 years, finishing 2nd and 3rd. Good horse to use underneath, because he's a gamer. #4 Medicean Man has lost to a lot these entrants over the years, but is always a steady gamer and is in really good form right now. He has 2 1sts and a 3rd in his last 3 races, 2 of which were over this course and distance. #7 Berlino di Tiger I think has a chance to make some noise in here. He hasn't done much inthe US over the past year, but there's a key distinction- He doesn't have to run around a turn in Dubai. He wasn't doing that in turf sprints in Brazil. The level of competition probably was a little inferior, but those are some fast times he was putting up in Brazil. If he just likes running straight, He could rebound and run a big one here. I won't be putting much into this race, because Shea Shea is the real deal and deserves to be the favorite. But at the short price he'll be, I think he's definitely worth trying to beat.
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Facebook- Peter May Jr. Twitter- @pmayjr You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin' If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...
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#4
03-27-2014, 02:08 AM
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Sticking with the Hong Kong theme, #4 Sterling City has never raced in Dubai before, but is a win machine. 7 wins in 19 starts (16/19 starts in the $$$) and has run vs the best in Hong Kong. He's a closing sprinter, and the pace should be hot, so he could be flying late. I don't think 20-1ML odds are realistic, but 10, maybe 15-1 is... #9 Russian Soul had 2 very good races at this distance of the Meydan surface, before Rich Tapestry put him in his place last time. I think the horse was a little further back and a little wider than he wanted to be in his last, so I expect a sharp, competitive rebound effort from him on Saturday. This is the distance/surface he thrives in... #11 My Catch is kinda an unknown in here. He's only 3, and has been running in 3YO restricted races earlier in the Dubai Carnival. Now this speedy guy is trying elders, but has a win over the surface. The reason I think he has a chance to hit the board here, is HE GETS A 9LB WEIGHT BREAK on the rest of the field. So if he's on his A-game, that weight break should make him very competitive.
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Facebook- Peter May Jr. Twitter- @pmayjr You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin' If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...
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#5
03-27-2014, 02:30 AM
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Dank is in good form, but has only raced against the girls and is coming off a layoff. We all know the Fugue is a monster, but I think this distance is a little shorter than she wants to go, and I'm kinda confused why she wasn't entered either in the Sheema Classic at 1 1/2 miles on turf (her ideal distance) or in the World Cup... Vercingetorix is undefeated, but has he gone against the best? Overall this is a very classy, salty bunch and there are a lot of ways you can go. I'm picking a longshot to win it- #9 Blazing Speed. Sticking with the Hong Kong theme, he's been going against the best. He's been competitive against Akeed Mofeed, Cirrus de Aigles, and Military Attack. But I think this distance suits him well, and he'll be flying late. So he's my pick at hopefully 20-1 or better. #11 Vercingetorix is undefeated and in his last 2 starts has won over the Meydan turf. This is by far the classiest bunch he's faced, but until he loses, tough to pick against him. #10 Dank is in such good form, I think she could hold her own with anyone. We'll see if taking on the boys off a layoff is too much to overcome, but she's done very little wrong lately. #7 Trade Storm is a steady knocker over this Meydan turf course. He has a habit of starting sluggishly and flying late. I'm not sure his best can beat these, but I think he can hit the board. As I said, I don't like the Fugue, because she should be going longer. Since she'll most likely be the favorite here, I looked for more value elsewhere. She truly is a monster if she beats this group. One other side note- I can't get over how Godolphin entered #13 Hunter's Light here instead of in the World Cup. He's a steady turf horse, but he's inferior to these and I think they may be just using him as a rabbit. He has proven Meydan synthetic form, and ran a solid 4th on Super Saturday off a long layoff in preparation for a World Cup run. His racing lines are very similar to 2012 winner Monterosso. Godolphin had multiple entrants in each race, so they're probably trying to find the best way to shuffle the deck. But as wide-open as the World Cup appears to be on paper, HE HAS A LEGIT SHOT OF WINNING THE WORLD CUP. IMO, he has very little chance to win this race. I think he's as good as the other 3 Godlophin entrants in the race, and probably better than Vancouverite. Vancouverite should be in this race, the Duty Free, and Hunter's Light should be in the World Cup.
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Facebook- Peter May Jr. Twitter- @pmayjr You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin' If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...
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#6
03-27-2014, 02:42 AM
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#3 Denim and Ruby lost by a nose to Gentildonna in her last race in Japan. She hasn't raced since November, but if she's ready she's "guilty by association" with Gentildonna. She's won off a similar 6-month layoff before. #1 Excellent result has won 2 in a row over the Meydan turf, so you know he likes the surface. He hasn't raced vs the level of competition before, but this is the right time to try with him being in good form over a distance/surface he likes. #14 Dominant is an inconsistent Hong Kong horse, but he's capable of big efforts at any time, and he likes this distance. Playing an exacta box with these 4 is the way I'll play this race. If the Fugue would've been entered here instead of the Duty Free, I think she'd be the favorite and at this distance, and being in form, she turns the tables on Magician and the rest of the field. Really surprised they didn't put her in this race.
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Facebook- Peter May Jr. Twitter- @pmayjr You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin' If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...
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#7
03-27-2014, 03:10 AM
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This race is really wide-open. You have horses with proven form over this Meydan surface, but have they gone against this level of competition? You have classy group 1 winning turf horses trying synthetic for the first time. You can make a case for every horse in the field, but you can also find excuses why you don't like them. Guys, as much as we argued about Mucho Macho Man coming or not coming here, look at the PPs for this race and tell me with a straight face that he couldn't win this? He, at worst would be as live as every other horse in this field. ****, I would've been tempted to try Wise Dan vs this bunch as well. Ok, sorry, getting side-tracked. As much as I'm liking the Hong Kong-based horses throughout the card, I'm playing against them here. Same for the Japan runners. It's totally playing with fire to do so, but as I said above, you can make cases for every horse and find legit reasons/excuses to not play them. I decided to take horses that have had proven success over this surface/distance. Especially when it's this level of competition. It seems since Meydan has opened, that it's very tough to win the World Cup from far back, so I picked horses that can stalk or be close-up. #1 Prince Bishop is in really good form right now winning 2 in a row over this surface, and repeatedly beating African Story and Sanshaawes. He's on top of his game right now, and eventhough he hasn't faced this level of competition, we don't really know who is better until they've proven they can handle the surface. He has proven it, and I think will prove it on Saturday. #9 Side Glance will be at huge odds, but he's battle-tested. He was a non-competitive 7th in a loss to Prince Bishop on Super Saturday 3 weeks ago, but that was his first start since December. In his 4 races before that, he ran in the Arlington Million, 2 group 1s in Australia, and and another in Hong Kong all at the 1 1/4 mile distance. He finished 4th to Animal Kingdom in the Dubai World Cup last year. So this is his 2nd start off the bench, should be more fit, more sharp, and has a chance to have a monster effort at huge odds. #14 Red Cadeaux finished 2nd to Animal Kingdom in the World Cup last year. The horse always runs in the best races, and holds his own. Hasn't raced since December, but came off that same layoff last year to get 2nd in this race. Should have really good value and brings the resume to back it up. Live horse that should be around 10-1 #5 Sanshaawes has been in very good form the whole Dubai Carnival. He had 2 wins in a row over the surface before getting 2nd ro Prince Bishop on Super Saturday. He's definitely eligible to turn the tables on PB, and win the race. Has the potential to be anywhere from 7-1 to 15-1, and he has good value at either IMO. There's so many ways to go in all of these races, I'm just hoping to be right on one or 2 of them.Feel free to rip on my picks now ;p
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Facebook- Peter May Jr. Twitter- @pmayjr You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin' If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...
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