Honor Code staying home for ALW; Wood to follow

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Here is my analysis for the race.

It should be a pretty tough battle between Social Inclusion and Honor Code.

Pretty much agree. Obviously I think the world of Honor Code. He has been my Derby horse since Saratoga. IF he runs by the 1 and I lose $50 on a 5x5xSocial Inclusion spread pick 3, I wont really mind.

[Thunder Gulch]

Steve's going to have to change the name of the forum because the Derby Trail won't exist at this rate.
The ultra conservative handling of these with these 3yo's is taking any fun out of what was once a great spring of racing. I remember when it was a matter of 3 or 4 stakes preps with no more than 4 week spacing from final G1 prep to the Derby. Then you started having some go in with 6 wks spacing when the Florida Derby moved dates. Next thing you know we're setting a Derby prep schedule with a one turn stakes and one serious prep. Now we have one of the winter book favorites opting for mid March allowance race and one traditional prep.
I know there are some complaints about the point system- there always will be- I just want the best to go out and prove it on the track with multiple efforts instead of just trying to pop a big one. One of these very highly regarded colts will have a bad day and miss out. Then we'll have voices complaining about the best not being in. Sorry, but you have a chance and the same set of rules everyone knows on the front end, so no crying over getting a rough trip 2 day fever a that keeps you home.

[tanner12oz]

I don't know what the solution to the derby system is but I think the negatives of the current system are being made very apparent this derby season. I understand that the derby is a race unlike any race all year from a handicapping perspective but I think there should be at least SOME handicapping involved. If the derby would be run tomorrow I wouldn't have the slightest idea who to play. You need horses to run in big races for people to fall for them and support them in the future, for little factoids to be produced to use in support of your selection.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

I don't know what the solution to the derby system is but I think the negatives of the current system are being made very apparent this derby season. I understand that the derby is a race unlike any race all year from a handicapping perspective but I think there should be at least SOME handicapping involved. If the derby would be run tomorrow I wouldn't have the slightest idea who to play. You need horses to run in big races for people to fall for them and support them in the future, for little factoids to be produced to use in support of your selection.

What do you mean negatives of the points system? How is what's happened so far supported the notion the points system is a bad thing? If anything, it's exposed the risk of the recent trend of less preps for 3yo's looking to make the gate. If you get squeezed at the start in the last round of preps and finish 5th, you could be in some serious trouble without the prior points to help you make the race.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

What do you mean negatives of the points system? How is what's happened so far supported the notion the points system is a bad thing? If anything, it's exposed the risk of the recent trend of less preps for 3yo's looking to make the gate. If you get squeezed at the start in the last round of preps and finish 5th, you could be in some serious trouble without the prior points to help you make the race.

i agree.

but i do wish they would make a minimum number of points necessary to get in the gate. if you have a horse win a prep worth enough points, they can skip further races and still glide into the gate on derby day.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i agree.

but i do wish they would make a minimum number of points necessary to get in the gate. if you have a horse win a prep worth enough points, they can skip further races and still glide into the gate on derby day.

I don't believe they would do it, but in a points system, I'd lower the number of points awarded for any one race, thereby almost requiring you to WIN a traditional March/April G1 route or hit the board in multiple events.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

I don't believe they would do it, but in a points system, I'd lower the number of points awarded for any one race, thereby almost requiring you to WIN a traditional March/April G1 route or hit the board in multiple events.

whether by demanding a threshold, or a number of starts, or changing the awarded points, i just wish they'd find a way to get them to race these horses more. of course, a rise in purses might help...

[Cannon Shell]

The Derby points system "fixed" an issue that didnt exist.
Fact is with all the big point races the last 60 or so days the trend of lighter campaigns will not change. Horses will start later and later because winning the traditional 2 year old and early season preps are pretty meaningless.

You have to remember that each potential horse is owned for the most part by different people, all following the same script often laid out by trainers who are up to their eyes in contenders.

Just wait till some unraced at 2 horse wins

[tanner12oz]

Maybe they should vote for derby entrants? Then you would never be guaranteed a spot to coast from...

[cmorioles]

I liked it better when they ran crap races like this as exhibitions with no betting. You see a lot of those scanning the book Champions.

[RockHardTen1985]

Ill be hung up at work tomorrow, so I wont be betting the #1.
Now I hope Honor Code blows him off the racetrack.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

Maybe they should vote for derby entrants? Then you would never be guaranteed a spot to coast from...

no, they need a system so everyone knows all that's required to get in. so, now trainers know if you get one win, you're in. the others will be left scrambling and chasing points, while the 'top' horses train up.

[blackthroatedwind]

I think it's fair that Phil said he wasn't supposed to win. That term refers to short priced/logical horses. No firster is really ever " supposed to win " especially one at 9:1. It's not saying it was a shock. It's racetrack jargon.

Steve just disagreed so he would have a chance to name drop and play the insider game. He still hasn't figured out that we know he's an insider:-)

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Steve's going to have to change the name of the forum because the Derby Trail won't exist at this rate.
The ultra conservative handling of these with these 3yo's is taking any fun out of what was once a great spring of racing. I remember when it was a matter of 3 or 4 stakes preps with no more than 4 week spacing from final G1 prep to the Derby. Then you started having some go in with 6 wks spacing when the Florida Derby moved dates. Next thing you know we're setting a Derby prep schedule with a one turn stakes and one serious prep. Now we have one of the winter book favorites opting for mid March allowance race and one traditional prep.
I know there are some complaints about the point system- there always will be- I just want the best to go out and prove it on the track with multiple efforts instead of just trying to pop a big one. One of these very highly regarded colts will have a bad day and miss out. Then we'll have voices complaining about the best not being in. Sorry, but you have a chance and the same set of rules everyone knows on the front end, so no crying over getting a rough trip 2 day fever a that keeps you home.

I don't disagree with what you're saying, but I think Honor Code is a bit of an extreme case. This looks almost exactly like what happened with Gemologist a few years ago, where a GP allowance race kept him from going to OP for the Rebel and he later returned in the Wood. Honor Code had a setback, otherwise I think it's safe to say he would have returned in the FOY, which was the plan from the beginning.

The trend towards 2 preps is also well developed. Barbaro, Street Sense and Big Brown took care of that years ago. In fact, last year was the first time the Derby winner had more than two starts at 3 since Barbaro, whose 3rd start deserved an asterisk.

I hope a high profile horse misses the Derby because his trainer left him in the barn and passed a race that would have given him enough points. Giving lightly raced 3YOs 60 day breaks after one start is absolutely ludicrous (Cairo Prince/Candy Boy) and the people doing it are playing with fire.