Met Mile, other stakes moved to Belmont Day

[Stickhorse]

The new Super Belmont Day will not increase the crowd and possibly not the handle in my opinion. First of all it is very difficult to measure if it is a success or not because if there is a Triple Crown in the balance a huge crowd will turn out anyway. If no Triple Crown is possible still a nice crowd turns out regardless. At least that was my observation about the past.

In the past the Memorial Day card was a pretty darn good for we, several day a week, simulcast players. So my wagering will probably only be made on Belmont Day now instead of both Belmont and Memorial Day. I will most likely just pay attention to my home circuit SoCal races and probably Arlington which I seem to have decent results during that time of year.

[RockHardTen1985]

Why all the complaints? This card is epic. Real horse racing fans and people who actually wager should be thrilled. I am 100% more excited about this day then I am Derby day. My personal handle that day is going to be 3 maybe 4x what I usually bet.

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Why all the complaints? This card is epic. Real horse racing fans and people who actually wager should be thrilled. I am 100% more excited about this day then I am Derby day. My personal handle that day is going to be 3 maybe 4x what I usually bet.

i can understand the other sides argument that you are moving a heavy handle race to a day that doesn't need a y help with handle..it does create a horseplayers wet dream but at the cost of another day that will now be on life support...

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

i can understand the other sides argument that you are moving a heavy handle race to a day that doesn't need a y help with handle..it does create a horseplayers wet dream but at the cost of another day that will now be on life support...

Memorial Day at Belmont is now on life support? That couldn't be farther from the truth.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Memorial Day at Belmont is now on life support? That couldn't be farther from the truth.

Those new turf races should get gigantic fields.

[tanner12oz]

anyone have a belmont stakes presale code?

[herkhorse]

This is gonna be HUGE!

[3kings]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

This is gonna be HUGE!

Will you be attending?

[pmayjr]

Here's the thing- The Met being on Memorial Day/Memorial weekend: I think people's family/friend/work plans dictate whether they have time to go to Belmont/simulcast regardless if the Met Mile is happening or not.

So I don't see how there would be THAT much of drop-off in handle/attendance that weekend, because holiday weekend plans are holiday weekend plans. I mean sure, a big G1 race like that can only help those numbers, but I don't think the impact is that big.

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by Stickhorse

So my wagering will probably only be made on Belmont Day now instead of both Belmont and Memorial Day.

ya really think he's the only one skipping memorial day for the super Belmont? life support may be a little strong but memorial day is going to resemble more like your average weekday then the met mile days of old...just my opinion of course...only so many wagering dollars to go around

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

ya really think he's the only one skipping memorial day for the super Belmont? life support may be a little strong but memorial day is going to resemble more like your average weekday then the met mile days of old...just my opinion of course...only so many wagering dollars to go around

Can you give me the handle for Memorial Day over the last, say, ten years please. Then, give me the average weekday handle at Belmont for that time of year. Thanks in advance.

[Cannon Shell]

http://www.drf.com/news/aqueduct-nyr...-gotham-stakes

Not sure why this is newsworthy but this one line made me smile

"Kay said he was sick, feeling the effects of what he said has been a vigorous work schedule that “took its toll. [Saturday], I got up and felt awful. I certainly intended to be there to present the trophy.”"

[ranger5830]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Can you give me the handle for Memorial Day over the last, say, ten years please. Then, give me the average weekday handle at Belmont for that time of year. Thanks in advance.

Here you go, the average handle for the last ten Memorial Day cards at BEL is $15,057,854.10, ranging from a low of $13,046,747 in 2011 to a high of $17,127,488 back in '04. The average handle for the race day following Memorial Day (usually Thursday but they did run on Wednesday once) is $7, 283,730.10 ranging from $5,634,793 in '12 to $10,123,254 in '07 ($262k pick six carryover that day tho)

To say it will be like a regular weekday is obviously hyperbole, but if you were to set the over/under total handle at $15 million, I would take the under.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

Here you go, the average handle for the last ten Memorial Day cards at BEL is $15,057,854.10, ranging from a low of $13,046,747 in 2011 to a high of $17,127,488 back in '04. The average handle for the race day following Memorial Day (usually Thursday but they did run on Wednesday once) is $7, 283,730.10 ranging from $5,634,793 in '12 to $10,123,254 in '07 ($262k pick six carryover that day tho)

To say it will be like a regular weekday is obviously hyperbole, but if you were to set the over/under total handle at $15 million, I would take the under.

so...memorial average is double the daily average, but being the brave soul, you'd take the under.

who can argue with that?

[ranger5830]

Originally Posted by Danzig

so...memorial average is double the daily average, but being the brave soul, you'd take the under.

who can argue with that?

Sorry if I wasn't clear, I was saying that this year's Memorial Day handle would be under $15 mil, as that was what the discussion was about, whether taking the Met Mile off the Memorial Day card would significantly impact handle. Five of the last 10 years they've handled over $15 million, four times they've gone over 16 million. So I thought setting the over/under at $15 million seemed like a reasonable number.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

Sorry if I wasn't clear, I was saying that this year's Memorial Day handle would be under $15 mil, as that was what the discussion was about, whether taking the Met Mile off the Memorial Day card would significantly impact handle. Five of the last 10 years they've handled over $15 million, four times they've gone over 16 million. So I thought setting the over/under at $15 million seemed like a reasonable number.

I'm not exactly sure what the discussion was about, but I appreciate you researching the numbers. What the discussion REALLY should be about, at least from a handle perspective, is whether or not the impact of moving the Met Mile to Belmont Day will positively affect the overall handle between the two days. In other words, will the increase we get from the Met Mile versus whatever race we would have run on Belmont Day, overcome any possible losses of handle on Memorial Day. Given last year's Met Mile, a super race by any account, was $1.7 million, I cannot understand any argument that thinks this will not be the case. And, this isn't even taking into account the increased percent we get on our simulcast rates on Belmont Day.

Another important thing to keep in mind is that by bunching all of these big races on one day, and substantially increasing their purses, you greatly increase the possibility of getting shippers. Imagine the trainer that has one horse to ship to the Met Mile but opts not to, as shipping just one horse may not make sense to him. Now, with many additional Stakes over the two day period, that same trainer may find three or four horses in his ( or her ) barn to ship. This can increase the number of planes coming from California and thus increase overall participation.

There are a lot of factors to consider. Focusing in on the possible negative effects this change will have on the Memorial Day handle is, at best, a narrow minded approach. It's also grossly misunderstanding the bigger picture.