Santa Anita Showvivor contest

[bigrun]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

That was my reaction, too. When 22 people tied for the high win payout ($132.40), it removed my last bit of interest. (I'd been picking 50-1 shots up to then, after my initial show streak ended.)

Here are the current leaders in the other categories:

Show Streak: 26/0 (meaning picked 26 in a row but current streak is "0")

Win Streak: 11/1 (no streak of 7 or more is currently alive)

Total Wins: 19 (3 players tied with 19, 9 others with 18 wins)

Total Places: 2 players tied with 14

None of these look attractive. Take the Show Streak, for example.

Say you pick horses that have a 90% chance to show. Then your chance of putting together the 27 race streak you'd need to overtake the leader is 0.9^27 = 6%. Even if each of your picks had a 95% chance to show, you'd only have a 25% chance of picking 27 in a row, and you'd probably have the company of others with 27.

Trying to pick 12 winners in a row is probably even harder. Say each of your picks has a 70% chance to win. Then picking 12 in a row would have slightly more than a 1% chance of success. If each pick has an 80% chance to win (1-9 shots?!), you'd still only have a 7% chance of picking 12 in a row.

--Dunbar

Been chasing 20-1 shots past few weeks figure win payout only shot...Today checked the whole leaderboard and saw couple $132.40, holy crap need to find a 70-1 shot..I

[bigrun]

My pick today, made before i saw the win payoffs...

2/9
Race 6 - #5 Melanistic

Maybe after today i'll pick 3-5 shots and hope for 30 in a row

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by bigrun

Been chasing 20-1 shots past few weeks figure win payout only shot...Today checked the whole leaderboard and saw couple $132.40, holy crap need to find a 70-1 shot..I

But if you're lucky enough to hit it, you'll at best be splitting the prize money with 20 other players. Even though it takes very little time every day to look through the entries and pick a random 50-1 shot, it's still not worth it to win $50 (after splitting).

--Dunbar

[Arletta]

Race 6 ~ #1 Red N Black Attack

[casp0555]

chalk in the 2nd.....I think

[bigrun]

2/13

Race 5

#7 Midnight Lady

[mclem0822]

Race 8-#5 Jackhammer


Good Luck All!

[bigrun]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

But if you're lucky enough to hit it, you'll at best be splitting the prize money with 20 other players. Even though it takes very little time every day to look through the entries and pick a random 50-1 shot, it's still not worth it to win $50 (after splitting).

--Dunbar

Hey bud, you mean the guy leading with $132.40 win payout isn't #1? I haven't read all the rules but assumed winner takes all..So if i'm 19th i get $50?...shoot i'll accept that..going back to picking 50-1 shots

[bigrun]

2/14

Race 4 - #4 Western Kitty

[casp0555]

Your Selection for Friday, February 14th:
2Race 2
#2 Woodmans Luck (CA)
Jockey: Corey S. Nakatani
M/L: 4/1

Last winner at Hollywood

[mclem0822]

Race 3- #7 Gates Of Zion

Good Luck All!

[Arletta]

Race 4 ~ #3 Gouyen

[casp0555]

Your Selection for Saturday, February 15th:
4
Race 1

#4 Omar Little (CA)
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez
M/L: 8/5