Discreet Cat's Beyer was a 115

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Stud they DON'T run as many miles as you would think at the highest level.
They run the Gotham(other than Easy Goer, three year olds don't approach that mark that early in the season, and yes I remember the day EAsy Goer ran his race and the track was just as fast, if not faster).
The Westchester is run each year, but thats not a grade one and doesn't draw grade one milers.
The only big mile race thats run at Aqueduct for elders is the Cigar, formerly the NYRA mile.

you're right on that. i stand corrected. still hung over from woodbine/maple leafs game marathon. still wish DC had gone a click faster!

Originally Posted by SentToStud

you're right on that. i stand corrected. still hung over from woodbine/maple leafs game marathon. still wish DC had gone a click faster!

Honestly? I would have wished the same thing had the track been at all near reality.
My bitterness about that track stemmed from the 3rd race.
I didn't play much Meadowlands this year because I've told you I'm not a nighttime bettor. But one Saturday night I played a big pik-3 and needed Bark Dust at 3-5 to wrap it up. It was a 5 1/2 furlong race and he was putrid, being defeated with no excuses by a Charles Town shipper, I **** you not.

To watch him go 7F in 1:21:4 wire to wire, well, that was an indication to me that the track was so incredibly fast as to be stupid.
Look at his pp's, can't beat a CT shipper at the Meadowlands with no excuses in a 5 1/2 furlong race yet he can go 7F on Saturday in 1:21:4? Please.
At that point times became irrelevant to me on that card, all you could do is base evaluation of winners on the way they accomplished the win.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Honestly? I would have wished the same thing had the track been at all near reality.
My bitterness about that track stemmed from the 3rd race.
I didn't play much Meadowlands this year because I've told you I'm not a nighttime bettor. But one Saturday night I played a big pik-3 and needed Bark Dust at 3-5 to wrap it up. It was a 5 1/2 furlong race and he was putrid, being defeated with no excuses by a Charles Town shipper, I **** you not.

To watch him go 7F in 1:21:4 wire to wire, well, that was an indication to me that the track was so incredibly fast as to be stupid.
Look at his pp's, can't beat a CT shipper at the Meadowlands with no excuses in a 5 1/2 furlong race yet he can go 7F on Saturday in 1:21:4? Please.At that point times became irrelevant to me on that card, all you could do is base evaluation of winners on the way they accomplished the win.

Look who he's trained by...

Honestly, I think they lowballed this Beyer. I got a 129 on my figures (highest of the year.) That's about a 121 Beyer equivalent. The other races fell in line with this number, the winner/2nd/3rd was +- 2 lengths of their last at this number. In the Cigar itself, even Sharp Humor ran back dead on to his last even though he was beaten 13 lengths.

Does anybody know what they gave the Demoiselle winner? I got the figure I had in my mind going in and once again, it was terrible. This is one awful group of 2YO fillies.

[blackthroatedwind]

The Westchester is the opening day feature at Belmont and has been for quite a few years now. Najran ( I think that's his name) set a track record in winning it a few years ago.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

Look who he's trained by...

Honestly, I think they lowballed this Beyer. I got a 129 on my figures (highest of the year.) That's about a 121 Beyer equivalent. The other races fell in line with this number, the winner/2nd/3rd was +- 2 lengths of their last at this number. In the Cigar itself, even Sharp Humor ran back dead on to his last even though he was beaten 13 lengths.

Does anybody know what they gave the Demoiselle winner? I got the figure I had in my mind going in and once again, it was terrible. This is one awful group of 2YO fillies.

I think he gave the Demoiselle an 84.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Weren't you the one just saying that we shouldn't care about times? Do you even think about what you write anymore?

You shouldnt soley look at times. Again, times are a component that are used in handicapping. To me, times, fractions, beyers, track surface etc etc all need to be used when handicapping. Only focusing on times or beyers without considereing anything else is foolish to me. When looking at a race, from an part-owner perpesctive all I care about is wins. From a handicapping point of view, I care about everything combined.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Its about a blend of things, in varying degrees of importance.
After the 3rd race on Saturday, which was laughable when those two "noble steeds" went 7f in rocketship time, I told the guy I was talking to that the Cigar would go in 32 and change easily.
Thats why I didn't join in the unending praise about the horse based on his raw time in the race.
I think that was pretty rational.
I think his sheet number will be in line with his last two races, still great, but not representing anything more than what he had already shown us.
What did impress me more than anything were the "gears" he showed.
His tractability and being able to start and stop on command were very impressive. It showed us that he has a fine mind, and that in teh heat of battle he can run as fast as he does when he has things his own way.
I do think the setup he got was as perfect as one could ever hope for.
By that I mean the speed horse who had seemingly no shot to win going out and doing the dirty work on Silver Train and forcing him to rush up and engage in blistering fractions on the inside.
Figures are 1/2 the equation, how they ACCOMPLISH the figure is the other half.
Euro seems to waver back and forth on everything, and most of what he posts is to try and get reactions out of folks and its tiresome.
Folks who can't seem to form and post enough intelligent thoughts who therefore go to the ole "I'll try and get a reaction out of people" posts are low on my list of "must read posters".

I agree 100% on your assesment of the race. The gears were incredible. And they way he reacted when shown the whip indicates he is pretty smart like you said.

I do not post to get a reaction. I am too old for that. I post because of something I feel like saying. And I dont think I waver on anything. Sure, maybe I have changed my mind after someone points something out to me that I havent thought of. But if you can find something that I have wavered on then show me. Other than that, I post what I think and feel.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think he gave the Demoiselle an 84.

Thanks, I had it a little lower (about a 79). I'm trying to figure out how they split the variant because they must have to get these numbers...

[blackthroatedwind]

OK, reality check time, as apparently there are so few good horses these days that when a nice one comes along the whole world seems poised to declare him the second coming. Discreet Cat is a very nice horse but people are getting seriously carried away.

Here's a comparison.....Congaree was a VERY good horse, but I don't know that he was perceived with the reverance Discreet Cat seems to be receiving here, and at least one of his Cigar Mile wins was more impressive than Discreet Cat's. Now, Discreet Cat may improve, as he certainly hasn't had an extensive campaign, but who knows how ANY horse will return from Dubai.

A few days ago Bernardini was the greatest thing since sliced bred, at least according to a number of people here, despite not running faster than many of the top horses we have seen over the last quarter century. People were talking about his beautiful stride, the ease with which he won, and blah blah blah. Then, you know what happened? he faced a competitive field. Suddenly he was just another good horse who lost to another good horse.

Let the horses REALLY do the talking. Appreciate them for what they are but stop setting them up to disappoint. Discreet Cat could, and well may, lose to another good horse, should one hopefully come along. It won't diminish his actual ability, just as Invasor's BC win didn't diminish Bernardini's, only the unreal expectations and accolades placed upon him.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

OK, reality check time, as apparently there are so few good horses these days that when a nice one comes along the whole world seems poised to declare him the second coming. Discreet Cat is a very nice horse but people are getting seriously carried away.

Here's a comparison.....Congaree was a VERY good horse, but I don't know that he was perceived with the reverance Discreet Cat seems to be receiving here, and at least one of his Cigar Mile wins was more impressive than Discreet Cat's. Now, Discreet Cat may improve, as he certainly hasn't had an extensive campaign, but who knows how ANY horse will return from Dubai.

A few days ago Bernardini was the greatest thing since sliced bred, at least according to a number of people here, despite not running faster than many of the top horses we have seen over the last quarter century. People were talking about his beautiful stride, the ease with which he won, and blah blah blah. Then, you know what happened? he faced a competitive field. Suddenly he was just another good horse who lost to another good horse.

Let the horses REALLY do the talking. Appreciate them for what they are but stop setting them up to disappoint. Discreet Cat could, and well may, lose to another good horse, should one hopefully come along. It won't diminish his actual ability, just as Invasor's BC win didn't diminish Bernardini's, only the unreal expectations and accolades placed upon him.

Watch out, in speaking with reality you are gonna get hit with a "hater" response. I sure did.
Congaree and Holy Bull are the two most underrated horses of my lifetime.
Congaree's Cigar performance was as incredible, one of the best three performances I ever saw.

We have several good horses and I think we should enjoy them without over analyzing. There were so many good performances over the weekend. Tiz Wonderful, No Biz Like Show Biz, Discreet Cat, Premium Tap, Showing Up, Deep Impact etc etc....I know I left out a couple. Anyway, it was sure fun watching these horses race and win. Sometimes it is good to be just a fan and not a gambler or owner.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Watch out, in speaking with reality you are gonna get hit with a "hater" response. I sure did.
Congaree and Holy Bull are the two most underrated horses of my lifetime.
Congaree's Cigar performance was as incredible, one of the best three performances I ever saw.

Holy Bull is definatley underrated. He seems to be a forgotten horse sometimes.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

OK, reality check time, as apparently there are so few good horses these days that when a nice one comes along the whole world seems poised to declare him the second coming. Discreet Cat is a very nice horse but people are getting seriously carried away.

Here's a comparison.....Congaree was a VERY good horse, but I don't know that he was perceived with the reverance Discreet Cat seems to be receiving here, and at least one of his Cigar Mile wins was more impressive than Discreet Cat's. Now, Discreet Cat may improve, as he certainly hasn't had an extensive campaign, but who knows how ANY horse will return from Dubai.

A few days ago Bernardini was the greatest thing since sliced bred, at least according to a number of people here, despite not running faster than many of the top horses we have seen over the last quarter century. People were talking about his beautiful stride, the ease with which he won, and blah blah blah. Then, you know what happened? he faced a competitive field. Suddenly he was just another good horse who lost to another good horse.

Let the horses REALLY do the talking. Appreciate them for what they are but stop setting them up to disappoint. Discreet Cat could, and well may, lose to another good horse, should one hopefully come along. It won't diminish his actual ability, just as Invasor's BC win didn't diminish Bernardini's, only the unreal expectations and accolades placed upon him.

When you see flashes of greatness in today's game you have to overreact because chances are you won't see that horse run again and if he does run it'll more than likely be two, maybe three races tops.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Discreet Cat's last race will be the World Cup. Seems like the Sheikhs plan is to slowly, but surely, control the breeding industry.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

OK, reality check time, as apparently there are so few good horses these days that when a nice one comes along the whole world seems poised to declare him the second coming. Discreet Cat is a very nice horse but people are getting seriously carried away.

Here's a comparison.....Congaree was a VERY good horse, but I don't know that he was perceived with the reverance Discreet Cat seems to be receiving here, and at least one of his Cigar Mile wins was more impressive than Discreet Cat's. Now, Discreet Cat may improve, as he certainly hasn't had an extensive campaign, but who knows how ANY horse will return from Dubai.

A few days ago Bernardini was the greatest thing since sliced bred, at least according to a number of people here, despite not running faster than many of the top horses we have seen over the last quarter century. People were talking about his beautiful stride, the ease with which he won, and blah blah blah. Then, you know what happened? he faced a competitive field. Suddenly he was just another good horse who lost to another good horse.

Let the horses REALLY do the talking. Appreciate them for what they are but stop setting them up to disappoint. Discreet Cat could, and well may, lose to another good horse, should one hopefully come along. It won't diminish his actual ability, just as Invasor's BC win didn't diminish Bernardini's, only the unreal expectations and accolades placed upon him.

very good comparison....I for one loved Congaree....but not at first, it wasn't until he kept showing up and performing well that I really fell for him. I thought he was a good 3 YO who was overshadowed by his big red stablemate...but he kept running at the top level until he was 6...we never get to see that these days...Pillow is right...we have to get wound up over one great run because it may be the only one we see

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by paisjpq

very good comparison....I for one loved Congaree....but not at first, it wasn't until he kept showing up and performing well that I really fell for him. I thought he was a good 3 YO who was overshadowed by his big red stablemate...but he kept running at the top level until he was 6...we never get to see that these days...Pillow is right...we have to get wound up over one great run because it may be the only one we see

See, THAT is why I prefer the Sir Tyler T's of the world. Not fast, but they show up over....and over.....and over....you get the point.

If they're too good to run at Aqueduct in February I'll pass!

[ELA]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

OK, reality check time, as apparently there are so few good horses these days that when a nice one comes along the whole world seems poised to declare him the second coming. Discreet Cat is a very nice horse but people are getting seriously carried away.

Here's a comparison.....Congaree was a VERY good horse, but I don't know that he was perceived with the reverance Discreet Cat seems to be receiving here, and at least one of his Cigar Mile wins was more impressive than Discreet Cat's. Now, Discreet Cat may improve, as he certainly hasn't had an extensive campaign, but who knows how ANY horse will return from Dubai.

A few days ago Bernardini was the greatest thing since sliced bred, at least according to a number of people here, despite not running faster than many of the top horses we have seen over the last quarter century. People were talking about his beautiful stride, the ease with which he won, and blah blah blah. Then, you know what happened? he faced a competitive field. Suddenly he was just another good horse who lost to another good horse.

Let the horses REALLY do the talking. Appreciate them for what they are but stop setting them up to disappoint. Discreet Cat could, and well may, lose to another good horse, should one hopefully come along. It won't diminish his actual ability, just as Invasor's BC win didn't diminish Bernardini's, only the unreal expectations and accolades placed upon him.

Great post. I also think there is another aspect at play here -- some % of people, whether they be professionals gamblers, bloodstock agents, or whatever they may be, tend to look at horses in different ways. There's almost a type of coginitive dissonance going on here in the background. Some may look at the horse, subconciously and without knowing at all, strictly looking to "beat him" next time. Others may look at it completely differently, perhaps wanting him to be "the horse" that we've all looked for high and low for quite some time. Others, in a different way, perhaps many other ways.

I also think that many people are catching the "potential" bug and that is not only contageous but also an easy target for critisizm.

Eric

Originally Posted by ELA

Great post. I also think there is another aspect at play here -- some % of people, whether they be professionals gamblers, bloodstock agents, or whatever they may be, tend to look at horses in different ways. There's almost a type of coginitive dissonance going on here in the background. Some may look at the horse, subconciously and without knowing at all, strictly looking to "beat him" next time. Others may look at it completely differently, perhaps wanting him to be "the horse" that we've all looked for high and low for quite some time. Others, in a different way, perhaps many other ways.

I also think that many people are catching the "potential" bug and that is not only contageous but also an easy target for critisizm.

Eric

Eric I agree, and on this whole thread or any other thread I have yet to see anyone put down this horse or his performance. In fact all have praised it, in varying forms or degrees of excitement.
I was told I was "talking down" to people when I asked if I was the only one who had seen the undercard. Nonsense. I simply couldn't believe the gushing over the raw time and honestly felt like people must not have seen the undercard and realized how fast the track was playing.
That doesn't mean I didn't appreciate the effort, or the horse. But a few folks jumped the gun on the raw time in their excitement over the horse, and I think all times or races have to be viewed in the proper context.
When Bark Dust and Mister Supremo go 7F in 1:21:4 on the same card and track, any references to time, short of a shattering of a track record to me become a small issue.
Different people view races and horses in different ways, exactly as you suggest.
To me, Premium's Tap effort was just as worthy of praise. Running back on short rest off a big race he not only toyed with the field, but did so in a manner that would suggest a huge breakthrough race and that he is really in incredible shape and form. The fact that he didn't tie a track record on a track that wasn't playing that fast doesn't get him as much hype as DC's race did due to the raw time. I'm not saying it was a better effort, but certainly in the same league and was worthy of more hype than it got.
Thor's Echo's race was also awesme and will get a HUGE fig on a track that was playing pretty slow on the undercard.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Eric I agree, and on this whole thread or any other thread I have yet to see anyone put down this horse or his performance. In fact all have praised it, in varying forms or degrees of excitement.
I was told I was "talking down" to people when I asked if I was the only one who had seen the undercard. Nonsense. I simply couldn't believe the gushing over the raw time and honestly felt like people must not have seen the undercard and realized how fast the track was playing.
That doesn't mean I didn't appreciate the effort, or the horse. But a few folks jumped the gun on the raw time in their excitement over the horse, and I think all times or races have to be viewed in the proper context.
When Bark Dust and Mister Supremo go 7F in 1:21:4 on the same card and track, any references to time, short of a shattering of a track record to me become a small issue.
Different people view races and horses in different ways, exactly as you suggest.
To me, Premium's Tap effort was just as worthy of praise. Running back on short rest off a big race he not only toyed with the field, but did so in a manner that would suggest a huge breakthrough race and that he is really in incredible shape and form. The fact that he didn't tie a track record on a track that wasn't playing that fast doesn't get him as much hype as DC's race did due to the raw time. I'm not saying it was a better effort, but certainly in the same league and was worthy of more hype than it got.
Thor's Echo's race was also awesme and will get a HUGE fig on a track that was playing pretty slow on the undercard.

Premium Tap didnt break a track record, but he did break the Stakes record. To me that was pretty good because (as you mentioned) the track was playing so so.

[SentToStud]

I really do wish DC had gone a tick quicker and set a NTR. Why not? I certainly do understand raw times are just that, raw, but still think he ran a super race and looked capable of just a bit more. Thing is, if he had beaten the mark, folks would be all over him as having set a phony track record and that's not right. I'm sure the track was fast for Easy Goer and expect it was also the day Congaree went 133 flat. I don't think DC has done enough to be called a great horse, much less a very good one and wouldn't even if he'd gone faster.

But what he has done, that's kind of getting lost, is that he has made the round-trip from US-->> Dubai-->> US very successfully. It will be very impressive if he can do it again.

What's also lost here is the great job Surroor did with him. I don't think this is the soundest horse ever seen, yet every time he shows up for a race, he looks fantastic.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

I really do wish DC had gone a tick quicker and set a NTR. Why not? I certainly do understand raw times are just that, raw, but still think he ran a super race and looked capable of just a bit more. Thing is, if he had beaten the mark, folks would be all over him as having set a phony track record and that's not right. I'm sure the track was fast for Easy Goer and expect it was also the day Congaree went 133 flat. I don't think DC has done enough to be called a great horse, much less a very good one and wouldn't even if he'd gone faster.

But what he has done, that's kind of getting lost, is that he has made the round-trip from US-->> Dubai-->> US very successfully. It will be very impressive if he can do it again.

What's also lost here is the great job Surroor did with him. I don't think this is the soundest horse ever seen, yet every time he shows up for a race, he looks fantastic.

I agree 100% sent to. fast track or not, what we saw was very special i think. they've done a great job with him. every time they have put him on the track he has been untouchable. he may not be great yet but it's within his grasp with a few more races.