Discreet Cat's Beyer was a 115

Who cares what his beyer was. If he won and his beyer was 95 would that keep you from betting him in his next race? I don't think so. Beyers are one of the components that play a role in handicapping. Beyers coupled with times are a good tool.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Who cares what his beyer was. If he won and his beyer was 95 would that keep you from betting him in his next race? I don't think so. Beyers are one of the components that play a role in handicapping. Beyers coupled with times are a good tool.

Weren't you the one just saying that we shouldn't care about times? Do you even think about what you write anymore?

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Weren't you the one just saying that we shouldn't care about times? Do you even think about what you write anymore?

Its about a blend of things, in varying degrees of importance.
After the 3rd race on Saturday, which was laughable when those two "noble steeds" went 7f in rocketship time, I told the guy I was talking to that the Cigar would go in 32 and change easily.
Thats why I didn't join in the unending praise about the horse based on his raw time in the race.
I think that was pretty rational.
I think his sheet number will be in line with his last two races, still great, but not representing anything more than what he had already shown us.
What did impress me more than anything were the "gears" he showed.
His tractability and being able to start and stop on command were very impressive. It showed us that he has a fine mind, and that in teh heat of battle he can run as fast as he does when he has things his own way.
I do think the setup he got was as perfect as one could ever hope for.
By that I mean the speed horse who had seemingly no shot to win going out and doing the dirty work on Silver Train and forcing him to rush up and engage in blistering fractions on the inside.
Figures are 1/2 the equation, how they ACCOMPLISH the figure is the other half.
Euro seems to waver back and forth on everything, and most of what he posts is to try and get reactions out of folks and its tiresome.
Folks who can't seem to form and post enough intelligent thoughts who therefore go to the ole "I'll try and get a reaction out of people" posts are low on my list of "must read posters".

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Its about a blend of things, in varying degrees of importance.
After the 3rd race on Saturday, which was laughable when those two "noble steeds" went 7f in rocketship time, I told the guy I was talking to that the Cigar would go in 32 and change easily.
Thats why I didn't join in the unending praise about the horse based on his raw time in the race.
I think that was pretty rational.
I think his sheet number will be in line with his last two races, still great, but not representing anything more than what he had already shown us.
What did impress me more than anything were the "gears" he showed.
His tractability and being able to start and stop on command were very impressive. It showed us that he has a fine mind, and that in teh heat of battle he can run as fast as he does when he has things his own way.
I do think the setup he got was as perfect as one could ever hope for.
By that I mean the speed horse who had seemingly no shot to win going out and doing the dirty work on Silver Train and forcing him to rush up and engage in blistering fractions on the inside.
Figures are 1/2 the equation, how they ACCOMPLISH the figure is the other half.
Euro seems to waver back and forth on everything, and most of what he posts is to try and get reactions out of folks and its tiresome.
Folks who can't seem to form and post enough intelligent thoughts who therefore go to the ole "I'll try and get a reaction out of people" posts are low on my list of "must read posters".

Tracks are always super fast when a horse sets a track record. Aqueduct was on Saturday and I'd bet it was also super fast the day Easy Goer ran in 1989. It can be weather or the way they work the track or, most likely, both but that's what I've always seen.

I just wish Gomez had pushed a little more late or that the others had held on a 1/16th more or whatever and that the final time was 1/5 faster. I know the colt was was going as fast as he could, but in an all out drive, who knows? It's not inconceiveable that under greater pressure DC could have responded and gone a click faster. At the same time, the 3rd qtr really put him into his fastest gear and he just maintained it to the wire, so maybe not.

All I know is they run a lot of mile races on the Aqueduct main and there have been plenty of super fast tracks there for G1 mile races over the years.

Horse ran incredible. Good enough for me.

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Tracks are always super fast when a horse sets a track record. Aqueduct was on Saturday and I'd bet it was also super fast the day Easy Goer ran in 1989. It can be weather or the way they work the track or, most likely, both but that's what I've always seen.

I just wish Gomez had pushed a little more late or that the others had held on a 1/16th more or whatever and that the final time was 1/5 faster. I know the colt was was going as fast as he could, but in an all out drive, who knows? It's not inconceiveable that under greater pressure DC could have responded and gone a click faster. At the same time, the 3rd qtr really put him into his fastest gear and he just maintained it to the wire, so maybe not.

All I know is they run a lot of mile races on the Aqueduct main and there have been plenty of super fast tracks there for G1 mile races over the years.

Horse ran incredible. Good enough for me.

Stud they DON'T run as many miles as you would think at the highest level.
They run the Gotham(other than Easy Goer, three year olds don't approach that mark that early in the season, and yes I remember the day EAsy Goer ran his race and the track was just as fast, if not faster).
The Westchester is run each year, but thats not a grade one and doesn't draw grade one milers.
The only big mile race thats run at Aqueduct for elders is the Cigar, formerly the NYRA mile.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Stud they DON'T run as many miles as you would think at the highest level.
They run the Gotham(other than Easy Goer, three year olds don't approach that mark that early in the season, and yes I remember the day EAsy Goer ran his race and the track was just as fast, if not faster).
The Westchester is run each year, but thats not a grade one and doesn't draw grade one milers.
The only big mile race thats run at Aqueduct for elders is the Cigar, formerly the NYRA mile.

I'm pretty sure the Westchester is usually run at Belmont.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I'm pretty sure the Westchester is usually run at Belmont.

It used to be Aqueduct Joey, and was for a long time. I'll check but I think its still Aqueduct.
I'm not at all in any way demeaning DC's performance by stating this.
I just happen to get sick to my stomach when they make a track so fast as they did on Saturday.
It makes it so very hard to gauge performances.
I wanted to post a " this is why Nobiz got all the media hype" thread in regards to his Champagne that you and I both gushed over and said he was the better horse.
But my enthusiam about him, though still very high, was tempered by the fact that I dunno what he proved either. He loped behind moderate fractions and hit them with a burst of speed that on a track like that is gonna win you the race.
I'd have liked it a lot better had the track been honest and he had done the same thing.
I still think hes the goods, but have to wait until spring to confirm it in my mind now.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Stud they DON'T run as many miles as you would think at the highest level.
They run the Gotham(other than Easy Goer, three year olds don't approach that mark that early in the season, and yes I remember the day EAsy Goer ran his race and the track was just as fast, if not faster).
The Westchester is run each year, but thats not a grade one and doesn't draw grade one milers.
The only big mile race thats run at Aqueduct for elders is the Cigar, formerly the NYRA mile.

you're right on that. i stand corrected. still hung over from woodbine/maple leafs game marathon. still wish DC had gone a click faster!

Originally Posted by SentToStud

you're right on that. i stand corrected. still hung over from woodbine/maple leafs game marathon. still wish DC had gone a click faster!

Honestly? I would have wished the same thing had the track been at all near reality.
My bitterness about that track stemmed from the 3rd race.
I didn't play much Meadowlands this year because I've told you I'm not a nighttime bettor. But one Saturday night I played a big pik-3 and needed Bark Dust at 3-5 to wrap it up. It was a 5 1/2 furlong race and he was putrid, being defeated with no excuses by a Charles Town shipper, I **** you not.

To watch him go 7F in 1:21:4 wire to wire, well, that was an indication to me that the track was so incredibly fast as to be stupid.
Look at his pp's, can't beat a CT shipper at the Meadowlands with no excuses in a 5 1/2 furlong race yet he can go 7F on Saturday in 1:21:4? Please.
At that point times became irrelevant to me on that card, all you could do is base evaluation of winners on the way they accomplished the win.

[blackthroatedwind]

OK, reality check time, as apparently there are so few good horses these days that when a nice one comes along the whole world seems poised to declare him the second coming. Discreet Cat is a very nice horse but people are getting seriously carried away.

Here's a comparison.....Congaree was a VERY good horse, but I don't know that he was perceived with the reverance Discreet Cat seems to be receiving here, and at least one of his Cigar Mile wins was more impressive than Discreet Cat's. Now, Discreet Cat may improve, as he certainly hasn't had an extensive campaign, but who knows how ANY horse will return from Dubai.

A few days ago Bernardini was the greatest thing since sliced bred, at least according to a number of people here, despite not running faster than many of the top horses we have seen over the last quarter century. People were talking about his beautiful stride, the ease with which he won, and blah blah blah. Then, you know what happened? he faced a competitive field. Suddenly he was just another good horse who lost to another good horse.

Let the horses REALLY do the talking. Appreciate them for what they are but stop setting them up to disappoint. Discreet Cat could, and well may, lose to another good horse, should one hopefully come along. It won't diminish his actual ability, just as Invasor's BC win didn't diminish Bernardini's, only the unreal expectations and accolades placed upon him.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

OK, reality check time, as apparently there are so few good horses these days that when a nice one comes along the whole world seems poised to declare him the second coming. Discreet Cat is a very nice horse but people are getting seriously carried away.

Here's a comparison.....Congaree was a VERY good horse, but I don't know that he was perceived with the reverance Discreet Cat seems to be receiving here, and at least one of his Cigar Mile wins was more impressive than Discreet Cat's. Now, Discreet Cat may improve, as he certainly hasn't had an extensive campaign, but who knows how ANY horse will return from Dubai.

A few days ago Bernardini was the greatest thing since sliced bred, at least according to a number of people here, despite not running faster than many of the top horses we have seen over the last quarter century. People were talking about his beautiful stride, the ease with which he won, and blah blah blah. Then, you know what happened? he faced a competitive field. Suddenly he was just another good horse who lost to another good horse.

Let the horses REALLY do the talking. Appreciate them for what they are but stop setting them up to disappoint. Discreet Cat could, and well may, lose to another good horse, should one hopefully come along. It won't diminish his actual ability, just as Invasor's BC win didn't diminish Bernardini's, only the unreal expectations and accolades placed upon him.

Watch out, in speaking with reality you are gonna get hit with a "hater" response. I sure did.
Congaree and Holy Bull are the two most underrated horses of my lifetime.
Congaree's Cigar performance was as incredible, one of the best three performances I ever saw.

We have several good horses and I think we should enjoy them without over analyzing. There were so many good performances over the weekend. Tiz Wonderful, No Biz Like Show Biz, Discreet Cat, Premium Tap, Showing Up, Deep Impact etc etc....I know I left out a couple. Anyway, it was sure fun watching these horses race and win. Sometimes it is good to be just a fan and not a gambler or owner.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

OK, reality check time, as apparently there are so few good horses these days that when a nice one comes along the whole world seems poised to declare him the second coming. Discreet Cat is a very nice horse but people are getting seriously carried away.

Here's a comparison.....Congaree was a VERY good horse, but I don't know that he was perceived with the reverance Discreet Cat seems to be receiving here, and at least one of his Cigar Mile wins was more impressive than Discreet Cat's. Now, Discreet Cat may improve, as he certainly hasn't had an extensive campaign, but who knows how ANY horse will return from Dubai.

A few days ago Bernardini was the greatest thing since sliced bred, at least according to a number of people here, despite not running faster than many of the top horses we have seen over the last quarter century. People were talking about his beautiful stride, the ease with which he won, and blah blah blah. Then, you know what happened? he faced a competitive field. Suddenly he was just another good horse who lost to another good horse.

Let the horses REALLY do the talking. Appreciate them for what they are but stop setting them up to disappoint. Discreet Cat could, and well may, lose to another good horse, should one hopefully come along. It won't diminish his actual ability, just as Invasor's BC win didn't diminish Bernardini's, only the unreal expectations and accolades placed upon him.

When you see flashes of greatness in today's game you have to overreact because chances are you won't see that horse run again and if he does run it'll more than likely be two, maybe three races tops.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Discreet Cat's last race will be the World Cup. Seems like the Sheikhs plan is to slowly, but surely, control the breeding industry.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

OK, reality check time, as apparently there are so few good horses these days that when a nice one comes along the whole world seems poised to declare him the second coming. Discreet Cat is a very nice horse but people are getting seriously carried away.

Here's a comparison.....Congaree was a VERY good horse, but I don't know that he was perceived with the reverance Discreet Cat seems to be receiving here, and at least one of his Cigar Mile wins was more impressive than Discreet Cat's. Now, Discreet Cat may improve, as he certainly hasn't had an extensive campaign, but who knows how ANY horse will return from Dubai.

A few days ago Bernardini was the greatest thing since sliced bred, at least according to a number of people here, despite not running faster than many of the top horses we have seen over the last quarter century. People were talking about his beautiful stride, the ease with which he won, and blah blah blah. Then, you know what happened? he faced a competitive field. Suddenly he was just another good horse who lost to another good horse.

Let the horses REALLY do the talking. Appreciate them for what they are but stop setting them up to disappoint. Discreet Cat could, and well may, lose to another good horse, should one hopefully come along. It won't diminish his actual ability, just as Invasor's BC win didn't diminish Bernardini's, only the unreal expectations and accolades placed upon him.

very good comparison....I for one loved Congaree....but not at first, it wasn't until he kept showing up and performing well that I really fell for him. I thought he was a good 3 YO who was overshadowed by his big red stablemate...but he kept running at the top level until he was 6...we never get to see that these days...Pillow is right...we have to get wound up over one great run because it may be the only one we see

[ELA]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

OK, reality check time, as apparently there are so few good horses these days that when a nice one comes along the whole world seems poised to declare him the second coming. Discreet Cat is a very nice horse but people are getting seriously carried away.

Here's a comparison.....Congaree was a VERY good horse, but I don't know that he was perceived with the reverance Discreet Cat seems to be receiving here, and at least one of his Cigar Mile wins was more impressive than Discreet Cat's. Now, Discreet Cat may improve, as he certainly hasn't had an extensive campaign, but who knows how ANY horse will return from Dubai.

A few days ago Bernardini was the greatest thing since sliced bred, at least according to a number of people here, despite not running faster than many of the top horses we have seen over the last quarter century. People were talking about his beautiful stride, the ease with which he won, and blah blah blah. Then, you know what happened? he faced a competitive field. Suddenly he was just another good horse who lost to another good horse.

Let the horses REALLY do the talking. Appreciate them for what they are but stop setting them up to disappoint. Discreet Cat could, and well may, lose to another good horse, should one hopefully come along. It won't diminish his actual ability, just as Invasor's BC win didn't diminish Bernardini's, only the unreal expectations and accolades placed upon him.

Great post. I also think there is another aspect at play here -- some % of people, whether they be professionals gamblers, bloodstock agents, or whatever they may be, tend to look at horses in different ways. There's almost a type of coginitive dissonance going on here in the background. Some may look at the horse, subconciously and without knowing at all, strictly looking to "beat him" next time. Others may look at it completely differently, perhaps wanting him to be "the horse" that we've all looked for high and low for quite some time. Others, in a different way, perhaps many other ways.

I also think that many people are catching the "potential" bug and that is not only contageous but also an easy target for critisizm.

Eric

Originally Posted by oracle80

Its about a blend of things, in varying degrees of importance.
After the 3rd race on Saturday, which was laughable when those two "noble steeds" went 7f in rocketship time, I told the guy I was talking to that the Cigar would go in 32 and change easily.
Thats why I didn't join in the unending praise about the horse based on his raw time in the race.
I think that was pretty rational.
I think his sheet number will be in line with his last two races, still great, but not representing anything more than what he had already shown us.
What did impress me more than anything were the "gears" he showed.
His tractability and being able to start and stop on command were very impressive. It showed us that he has a fine mind, and that in teh heat of battle he can run as fast as he does when he has things his own way.
I do think the setup he got was as perfect as one could ever hope for.
By that I mean the speed horse who had seemingly no shot to win going out and doing the dirty work on Silver Train and forcing him to rush up and engage in blistering fractions on the inside.
Figures are 1/2 the equation, how they ACCOMPLISH the figure is the other half.
Euro seems to waver back and forth on everything, and most of what he posts is to try and get reactions out of folks and its tiresome.
Folks who can't seem to form and post enough intelligent thoughts who therefore go to the ole "I'll try and get a reaction out of people" posts are low on my list of "must read posters".

I agree 100% on your assesment of the race. The gears were incredible. And they way he reacted when shown the whip indicates he is pretty smart like you said.

I do not post to get a reaction. I am too old for that. I post because of something I feel like saying. And I dont think I waver on anything. Sure, maybe I have changed my mind after someone points something out to me that I havent thought of. But if you can find something that I have wavered on then show me. Other than that, I post what I think and feel.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Weren't you the one just saying that we shouldn't care about times? Do you even think about what you write anymore?

You shouldnt soley look at times. Again, times are a component that are used in handicapping. To me, times, fractions, beyers, track surface etc etc all need to be used when handicapping. Only focusing on times or beyers without considereing anything else is foolish to me. When looking at a race, from an part-owner perpesctive all I care about is wins. From a handicapping point of view, I care about everything combined.