11/30: Aqueduct (6th-10th)

[Kasept]

Long Holiday Weekend continued Friday with thrillers at Churchill and Hollywood as Will Take Charge edged game Game On Dude in the Clark and Silentio outbobbed Summer Front in the Citation. Fold in Majestic Stride's Underwood win at HOL Thanksgiving Day and it looks like exiting Breeders' Cup runners are fairing pretty well.

Saturday offers 9 graded stakes with the tremendous Cigar Mile -- including BC players Groupie Doll, Goldencents, Flat Out, Verrazano, Private Zone, Laugh Track, Capo Bastone) as the centerpiece. Juveniles co-star at the Big A as well of course with the Remsen and Desmoiselle, while the Stars of Tomorrow II meet-ender at Churchill showcases more than 130 juveniles highlighted by 10 Golden Rod and 11 KY Jockey Club participants. Gulfstream's winter season kicks off today with turfy 2yo's in the Pulpit and Wait a While and Hollywood's Turf Festival continues with babies contesting lawn miles in the Generous and Miesque.

Hope everyone is enjoying the great stretch of action. Headed to Aqueduct later this morning, so a few quick thoughts in writing to go along with Weekend Preview ATR expressions...


AQUEDUCT


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: 92nd Desmoiselle (G2), 2yo-F, 9f (G/S, P3, DD)

Though fast and talented, there is no guarantee Stopchargingmaria enjoys the additional furlong as much as the first 8. As Nick Tammaro opined Friday on ATR, everyone else lined up against her here is better designed for the 9f trip and someone could jump up and by her..

Most Likely: #6 Stopchargingmaria 8-5 WON ($3.90)
Best Value: #2 Lexi Morgan 12-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Got Lucky 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 America 5-1 5th


7th: 64th Comely (G3), 3yo-F, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Repositioning of this event and Gazelle a clever gambit by NYRA racing office, but in face of so many good events, G3 has been glossed over in lead up to big weekend. Wedding Toast the filly to beat amidst 3 race ascendency, but there is no shortage of pace pressure types signed on to keep her company the whole way around, especially blinkers-added Sheer Drama. Flash Forward (20-1) has enjoyed terrific campaign and gets cozy rail draw for behind-the-speed voyage under newly-added Saez..

Best Value: #1 Flash Forward 20-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Sheer Drama 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Wedding Toast 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Super Add: #4 My Happy Face 7-2 4th


8th: 25th Cigar Mile H. (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Exceptional cast turns out for 25th running of this fall standard and there is too much speed involved not to be looking for those that will be running late off stalking and closing trips. Though jockey machinations don't mean that much to me overall, Rosario commitment to Forty Tales (10-1) worth noting given their record together. Out of a daughter of the winner of this event's inaugural running (Forty Niner), Forty Tales has ideal profile suited to 7-8f. Experiment down the hill at Santa Anita proved a disaster and Capo Bastone (20-1) will be the most under-bet of the Breeders' Cup runners involved here. Reunites with Irad Ortiz who rode him to the King's Bishop heroics. Only 2 horses offer potent turn back angle in this spot: Flat Out (6-1) and Saratoga Snacks (12-1). The last time Flat Out went one turn out of a route in April, he was exiting the New Orleans and unleashed his career best 116 Beyer performance in the Westchester. Saratoga Snacks gutted out the 9f Empire Classic 6 weeks ago but is more suited to this voyage, could sit an idyllic trip stalking the sprint speed and stay on well..

Most Likely: #2 Forty Tales 10-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Flat Out 6-1 WON ($15.00)
Best Value: #6 Capo Bastone 20-1 10th
Exotics Use: #7 Saratoga Snacks 12-1 8th


9th: 100th Remsen (G1), 2yo, 9f (DD)

Top pair look interchangeable and clear from rest of this set with KMc's Cairo Prince the one Shug's Honor Code will have to catch and pass..

Most Likely: #4 Honor Code 9-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #9 Cairo Prince 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Master Lightening 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 SCR


10th: CLM, 3+, 6f

Most Likely: #11 Winning Touch 8-5 WON ($4.70)
Best Value: #7 Cactus City Road 12-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Hebert Hall 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Luxury Appeal 8-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-4-7
8: 2-4-6-7-9-10
9: 4-9
10: 6-7-11

4x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (2,10/9/1,4/11) Paid $39.60


Good luck!
Steve

[RockHardTen1985]

Good Luck today Steve.
Your the second person in the last 5min who has said they like Lexi Morgan today. Ill have to include her on something as Im stongly against the chalk in that race.

[VOL JACK]

Hope you have a monster day as our picks for the Cigar are identical.

Although, I don't like the paper tiger Stopshoppingmaria.
The pedigree handicapper in me just can't bet a daughter of Tale of the Cat out of a Montbrook mare stretching out to 9f as a 2 year old.

[Kasept]

AQU SCR/CHG'S: http://www.nyra.com/scratches/AQUscratch.html

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Good Luck today Steve.
Your the second person in the last 5min who has said they like Lexi Morgan today. Ill have to include her on something as Im stongly against the chalk in that race.

Thx Joe. G/L! Would love to be really against Maria but she may cruise along easy enough early to take them all the way.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Hope you have a monster day as our picks for the Cigar are identical.

Although, I don't like the paper tiger Stopshoppingmaria.
The pedigree handicapper in me just can't bet a daughter of Tale of the Cat out of a Montbrook mare stretching out to 9f as a 2 year old.

Love hearing that you see it similarly Jack.. and I certainly wouldn't mind seeing one of those underneath horses get the money.

Agree about Maria getting the distance but the easy lead she seems certain to get makes the prospect more possible.

BOL today!

[Alabama Stakes]

do you have any insight on the 5th....nice race