Clark Hcp

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Hopefully Wild Desert at least hits the board...(with Premium Tap & It's No Joke)

Good boy Wild D, outstanding race by Premium Tap.

[Zaf]

Nice Call, Sightseek !

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Zaf

Nice Call, Sightseek !

Thanks!
Nice save for a day that I just missed everywhere else.

WOW!!
I just got in from a day with family and watched the replays of the races.
Premium Tap has obviously turned the corner into a TOP runner.
Not only didn't he bounce, he turned in on the top performances of the year today. I know he wasn't beating grade one horses, but the way he did it was awesome. Great performance!!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by oracle80

WOW!!
I just got in from a day with family and watched the replays of the races.
Premium Tap has obviously turned the corner into a TOP runner.
Not only didn't he bounce, he turned in on the top performances of the year today. I know he wasn't beating grade one horses, but the way he did it was awesome. Great performance!!

At some point you will learn that " bounce " is at best misused and overused and at worst a complete figment of people's imaginations.

Here's Premium Tap, who has run well in every start this year starting with his allowance win over Sun King. If not for a bone headed ride he would have come into this race with a win in the Woodward ( Grade 1 ), KY Cup Classic ( Grade 2 ) and a solid third in the BC Classic. His probable " career top " in the BC Classic was earned with the benefit of a perfect trip. Well, he got one again, and he probably improved, just as one could argue he has been doing in every start this year.

Not trying to pick on you, but I know we have an enormous difference of opinion on this whole " bounce " thing, but I am convinced that at least the vast majority of times that people believe horses bounce it is more a situation of a horse being in an ideal situation one day and a less than ideal one the next.

I liken it to the famous Laurence Olivier line to Dustin Hoffman ( during the filming of Marathon Man )...." why not try acting ". In other words....." why not try handicapping ".

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

At some point you will learn that " bounce " is at best misused and overused and at worst a complete figment of people's imaginations.

Here's Premium Tap, who has run well in every start this year starting with his allowance win over Sun King. If not for a bone headed ride he would have come into this race with a win in the Woodward ( Grade 1 ), KY Cup Classic ( Grade 2 ) and a solid third in the BC Classic. His probable " career top " in the BC Classic was earned with the benefit of a perfect trip. Well, he got one again, and he probably improved, just as one could argue he has been doing in every start this year.

Not trying to pick on you, but I know we have an enormous difference of opinion on this whole " bounce " thing, but I am convinced that at least the vast majority of times that people believe horses bounce it is more a situation of a horse being in an ideal situation one day and a less than ideal one the next.

I liken it to the famous Laurence Olivier line to Dustin Hoffman ( during the filming of Marathon Man )...." why not try acting ". In other words....." why not try handicapping ".

I do not overuse the term.
And teh number he ran last time out wasn't the issue to me so much as the short rest was.
Short rest will cause more bounces than anything else will.
He overcame it, but if you wanna look at the results of horses in the last five years whg ran back in grade one's off 3 weeks rest or less, you'd find Premium is one of the few and the proud.
Its why I found his effort amazing.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I do not overuse the term.
And teh number he ran last time out wasn't the issue to me so much as the short rest was.
Short rest will cause more bounces than anything else will.
He overcame it, but if you wanna look at the results of horses in the last five years whg ran back in grade one's off 3 weeks rest or less, you'd find Premium is one of the few and the proud.
Its why I found his effort amazing.

How is the record of favorites that overlaid the field?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by oracle80

WOW!!
I just got in from a day with family and watched the replays of the races.
Premium Tap has obviously turned the corner into a TOP runner.
Not only didn't he bounce, he turned in on the top performances of the year today. I know he wasn't beating grade one horses, but the way he did it was awesome. Great performance!!

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Here's Premium Tap, who has run well in every start this year starting with his allowance win over Sun King. If not for a bone headed ride he would have come into this race with a win in the Woodward ( Grade 1 ), KY Cup Classic ( Grade 2 ) and a solid third in the BC Classic. His probable " career top " in the BC Classic was earned with the benefit of a perfect trip. Well, he got one again, and he probably improved, just as one could argue he has been doing in every start this year.

Does this mean you two are ready to admit that Premium Tap had a non-negligible chance to win the BC Classic? Nah, I didn't think so. ;>)

--Dunbar

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Does this mean you two are ready to admit that Premium Tap had a non-negligible chance to win the BC Classic? Nah, I didn't think so. ;>)

--Dunbar

I wouldn't fall all over myself about Premium Tap's BC performance. Yes, he did better than I thought he would, but he got a dream trip and still lost by 3 1/2 lengths. I said he was 2 or 3% to win the race. He was 27:1 so the odds reflected about 3%. Do you honestly think he would have won that race more than one out of 30 tries? I would say the situation could not have worked out better for him and he still finished 3 1/2 lengths behind the winner.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I wouldn't fall all over myself about Premium Tap's BC performance. Yes, he did better than I thought he would, but he got a dream trip and still lost by 3 1/2 lengths. I said he was 2 or 3% to win the race. He was 27:1 so the odds reflected about 3%. Do you honestly think he would have won that race more than one out of 30 tries? I would say the situation could not have worked out better for him and he still finished 3 1/2 lengths behind the winner.

Well, "2 or 3%" sounds a little more generous than what you said before the Classic:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Premium Tap has a chance in the Classic?

Not likely. Haven't seen the field but it's hard to think off-hand of any horse with less of a chance. Hell, if Ouiji Board ran she would have a better chance of winning. Not that she rates to finish ahead of him but at least she's an unknown quantity. Premium Tap has ZERO chance.

When I challenged "ZERO chance", you wrote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

OK...a number approaching zero which I personally believe is less than 2.5% ( though with takeout I was really saying his actual representative chances would be under 2%...

What I think is that with the information we had going into the race, he had more than a 3% chance to win that race. That's a little different from what you asked. But I do also think he showed he had more than a 3% chance to win the race.

I use a general rule that a 3-length difference in projected finish translates to half the chance of winning when capping the two horses. That hardly banishes the 2nd horse to the neglible-chance realm.

btw, I might agree with you about Ouija Board!

Also, I agree with every word you wrote in this thread about bounce.

--Dunbar