Hwjb's betting diary

[Hwjb]

Simply can't envisage defeat for this well handicapped horse for his excellent new yard (Gary Moore)

Lingfield
1:50: Myson 10pts win.

[Hwjb]

24/11/06

Musselburgh:
2:30 Kings Quay 4pts win
3:00 Lascar de Ferbet 3pts win

Newbury:
1:35 Wogan 1pt win
2:10 Oscar Park 4pts win
Nyborg Madrik 4pts win
2:40 Gungadu 8pts win
3:10 Lou du Moulin Mas 6pts win

Wolves:
1:40 A Little Bit Left 4pts win

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Hwjb

24/11/06

Musselburgh:
2:30 Kings Quay 4pts win
3:00 Lascar de Ferbet 3pts win

Newbury:
1:35 Wogan 1pt win
2:10 Oscar Park 4pts win
Nyborg Madrik 4pts win
2:40 Gungadu 8pts win
3:10 Lou du Moulin Mas 6pts win

Wolves:
1:40 A Little Bit Left 4pts win

Hwjb,

It seems to me you have been betting more units than you did initially. Here's what you wrote in answer to an early question of mine:

Originally Posted by Hwjb

My points are on a simple scale from 1-10. I very rarely bet 7+ pts, and will probably only have a 5pt bet once a week or so...wanted to get this off with a juicy bet today, and as I speak Cheeky Lad has romped home! My wage is pretty poor so I can't afford to bet that heavily, and therefore 1pt = £10 for me.

This week you've already made 6 bets of 5+ pts (since 11/21). The 1-2 pt plays, which were the bulk of your picks when you started, are now the exception.

This is natural, and even makes sense from a math standpoint if you have been building a bankroll. But if one reason you are keeping a bet log is for the purpose of seeing how skilled you are in the long run, then raising your bets throws a lot more uncertainty into interpreting your results. The more your results hinge on just a few races, the less meaningful they are. In your case, you had one whopper where you collected something like 124 units. But of the remaining 103 units profit, I think no single race contributed more than 35 pts. That makes your result more impressive than if you were having lots of 5-10 pt plays that were returning 50+ pts when they win.

--Dunbar

[Hwjb]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Hwjb,

It seems to me you have been betting more units than you did initially. Here's what you wrote in answer to an early question of mine:



This week you've already made 6 bets of 5+ pts (since 11/21). The 1-2 pt plays, which were the bulk of your picks when you started, are now the exception.

This is natural, and even makes sense from a math standpoint if you have been building a bankroll. But if one reason you are keeping a bet log is for the purpose of seeing how skilled you are in the long run, then raising your bets throws a lot more uncertainty into interpreting your results. The more your results hinge on just a few races, the less meaningful they are. In your case, you had one whopper where you collected something like 124 units. But of the remaining 103 units profit, I think no single race contributed more than 35 pts. That makes your result more impressive than if you were having lots of 5-10 pt plays that were returning 50+ pts when they win.

--Dunbar

Dunbar,

You're absolutely right. In large part it's simply a case of human fallibility...with a large balance in my betting account I find it hard to restrict myself to the smaller bets, and I have been making some unnecessarily large plays of late which were speculative in nature, and should have been much smaller in outlay.
That said, some (a minority) of the larger bets I've been placing (including Wednesday's maximum) have been because we are really getting going in the jumps season of late, and this time of year often tends to provide worthily juicy bets.
Anyway, thanks for bringing me to account on this score, clearly the staking should remain the same throughout, and if I want to put more on I just need to change the amount of cash (currently £10) I bet per point. However, I'm not going to do this yet and will instead just try to exercise a little more self-control!!
Thanks for the input!

Harry.

[Hwjb]

Musselburgh:
2:30 Kings Quay 4pts win: 3rd of 11 @ 5/4: -4pts
3:00 Lascar de Ferbet 3pts win: unseated @ 3/1: -3pts

Newbury:
1:35 Wogan 1pt win: 4th of 6 @ 8/1: -1pt
2:10 Oscar Park 4pts win: 2nd of 21 @ 8/1: -4pts. Can't believe Tom Doyle failed to win on this, gave the leader 10 lengths starts then outfought in the finish. That boy really needs to get to the gym!
Nyborg Madrik 4pts win: 13th of 21 @ 33/1: -4pts
2:40 Gungadu 8pts win: 2nd of 5 @ 1/2: -8pts. THOMAS!!!
3:10 Lou du Moulin Mas 6pts win: 1st of 9 @ 2/1: +12pts

Wolves:
1:40 A Little Bit Left 4pts win: 1st of 9 @ 2/1: +8pts

Total: -4pts
Total: +233.25pts

[Hwjb]

A cracking day's racing at Newbury, and I'm sure the winner of the Hennessy comes from Montgermont and Idle Talk. Can't split the though!

Newbury:

1:05: Arumun 2pts win
Allumee 1pt win
1:35: Bambi de L'Orme 2pts win
Saintsaire 1pt win
Roofing Spirit 1pt lay
2:05: Inglis Drever 3pts win
2:40: Idle Talk 3pts win
Montgetmont 3pts win
Vodka Bleu 2pt place lay
3:15: Big Rob 1pt win
3:45: Mida Way 3pts win


Newcastle:

12:55: Ellerslie George 1pt win
2:25: Nifty Roy 1pt win
Alfy Rich 1pt win
3:00: Bob Bob Bobbin 3pts win
Truckers Tavern 1pt e/w
Another Promise 1pt e/w
Hautclan 2pt win lay
3:30: Straw Bear 4pts win

Towcester:

1:45: Herecomestanley 3pts win

Lingfield

1:00: Autograph Hunter 8pts win
1:30: Miss Saafend Plaza 1pt win
2:35: Alpine Reel 2pts win

Kempton

4:50: Homes By Woodford 3pts e/w

[Hwjb]

Time to take the value about the mare.

Japan Cup @ Tokyo


5pt e/w Ouija Board.

[Hwjb]

Japan Cup @ Tokyo


5pt e/w Ouija Board: 3rd of 11 @ 17/2: +3.5pts



Total: +215.03pts

[Hwjb]

Wolves:

1:20: Cumbrian Knight 1pt win
Blue Hedges 1pt lay
1:50: Desert Opal 2pts lay
2:20: Finished Article 1pt win
Saltrio 2pts lay
2:50: Captain Darling 1pt lay
3:20 Keep Your Distance 4pts win

Folkestone:

2:00: Billy Bray 5pts win
The Hardy Boy 2pts lay
2:30: Isle de Maurice 3pts win
Silverio 2pts lay
3:00: Magic of Sydney 3pts win
3:30: Phardessa 2pts win

[Hwjb]

Ouch!!!


Newbury:

1:05: Arumun 2pts win: Fell @ 11/1: -2pts
Allumee 1pt win: Pulled up @ 12/1: -1pt
1:35: Bambi de L'Orme 2pts win: 2nd of 9 @ 5/1: -2pts
Saintsaire 1pt win: 1st of 9 @ 15/8: +1.88pts
Roofing Spirit 1pt lay: 5th of 9 @ 9/1: +1pt
2:05: Inglis Drever 3pts win: 1st of 5 @ 2/1: +6pts
2:40: Idle Talk 3pts win: 6th of 16 @ 8/1: -3pts
Montgetmont 3pts win 7th of 16 @ 9/2: -3pts
Vodka Bleu 2pt place lay: Pulled up @ 2.7/1: +2pts
3:15: Big Rob 1pt win: Pulled up @ 11/1: -1pt
3:45: Midas Way 3pts win: 4th of 9 @ 4/1: -3pts


Newcastle:

12:55: Ellerslie George 1pt win: 3rd of 18 @ 15/8: -1pt
2:25: Nifty Roy 1pt win: last of 7 finishers @ 8/1: -1pt
Alfy Rich 1pt win: 3rd of 8 @ 7/1: -1pt
3:00: Bob Bob Bobbin 3pts win: 4th of 11 @ 11/4: -3pts
Truckers Tavern 1pt e/w: 6th of 11 @ 33/1: -2pts
Another Promise 1pt e/w: 2nd of 11 @ 14/1: +2.5pts
Hautclan 2pt win lay: 5th of 11 @ 10.9/1: +0.9pts
3:30: Straw Bear 4pts win: 1st of 9 @ 1/1: +4pts

Towcester:

1:45: Herecomestanley 3pts win: N/R

Lingfield

1:00: Autograph Hunter 8pts win: 2nd of 4 @ 1/2: -8pts
1:30: Miss Saafend Plaza 1pt win: 2nd of 6 @ 5/1: -1pt
2:35: Alpine Reel 2pts win: 2nd of 8 @ 13/8: -2pts

Kempton

4:50: Homes By Woodford 3pts e/w: 4th of 10 @ 16/1: -6pts


Daily Total: -21.72pts
Total: +211.53pts

[Hwjb]

The horse dogged it!!

Lingfield
1:50: Myson 10pts win: 3rd of 5 @ 11/8: -10pts


Total: +237.25pts