Butch Lehr on bias controversy -- Horseplayer Daily

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

It is called bounce THEORY for a reason. In reality what is perceived as a bounce is really just regression to the mean after a big race.

Well put, Sniper. IMO, people would do much better to think in terms of "Regression to the mean" than "bounce". People use "bounce" as if the horse is going to come back and run worse than it did before the big fig. I've never seen anything more than isolated anecdotal evidence to support that.

When I'm faced with a horse that ran very big last time out, I'll usually start with a speed fig that is between the high one and the race or 2 before that. The younger the horse, the more I am willing to weight the recent high fig.

--Dunbar