Saratoga Handle And Att Decline

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

So to be clear, the numbers this year were lower per day in handle compared to 2005, which by the way was lower than 2004 by 5% b/c of a gambling scandal....http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/06/sp...cing.html?_r=0

10 years later and no appreciable increase in daily handle for Saratoga and there is no concern and we can spin this anyway we want? All I said in the initial post was that it was a disappointment. I have no problem with NYRA and love Saratoga. But again it is nothing but defensive reactions regarding what is a weakish number. Just say that.

Considering that overall handle numbers industrywide have dropped significantly in 10 years isn't an expectation that Saratoga's numbers should have increased odd?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Considering that overall handle numbers industrywide have dropped significantly in 10 years isn't an expectation that Saratoga's numbers should have increased odd?

Nope. I think the point is more about what the future of racing is going to look like. The fact that Saratoga is not immune is surely relevant.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Nope. I think the point is more about what the future of racing is going to look like. The fact that Saratoga is not immune is surely relevant.

You are making no sense. Saratoga has bucked the trend and has not shown a decline in handle over 10 years when virtually every other track in America has. How is this a negative?

Are you just now figuring out handle has dropped in this country over the last 6 or 7 years? Or that handle is and has been moving off track?

Saratoga's numbers this season don't show anything really. They are well within the norm of what can be expected.

[randallscott35]

If treading water is your goal then do a victory lap. The numbers are lower in daily handle than they were 12 years ago, even at Saratoga. The objective is to grow the pie. If you are a business with the same revenues as 12 years ago, you aren't happy. To say the numbers are meaningless is....Podunk tracks will be the first to go. All the slots in the world won't save handle as pols can easily redirect cash away from racing when they want to....There is now a casino around every corner in the US. There is competition for every gambling dollar (and many are hurting) that people have....Yes the fact that handle has declined most everywhere is obvious....except that Las Vegas is at a new high in terms of visitors this year. And car sales are back to 2007 levels, etc....things are getting better. It just isn't translating to racing....What to do to fix it? That's it. If it doesn't matter then let's not publish the numbers at all.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

If treading water is your goal then do a victory lap. The numbers are lower in daily handle than they were 12 years ago, even at Saratoga. The objective is to grow the pie. If you are a business with the same revenues as 12 years ago, you aren't happy. To say the numbers are meaningless is....Podunk tracks will be the first to go. All the slots in the world won't save handle as pols can easily redirect cash away from racing when they want to....There is now a casino around every corner in the US. There is competition for every gambling dollar (and many are hurting) that people have....Yes the fact that handle has declined most everywhere is obvious....except that Las Vegas is at a new high in terms of visitors this year. And car sales are back to 2007 levels, etc....things are getting better. It just isn't translating to racing....What to do to fix it? That's it. If it doesn't matter then let's not publish the numbers at all.

New High in terms of visitors translates into what exactly? Six month revenue for Las Vegas is up slightly HOWEVER June and July numbers are down pretty significantly. I would think that Saratoga's July Aug numbers would compare favorably in terms of pct decrease. So what do all those extra visitors mean exactly or were you just assuming we are all to lazy to look beneath the fluff of increased visitors. Gambling in general is a Very mature industry and actually racing is holding its own considering all the outlets available to attract gaming dollars.

Racing's bigger problems IMO are the watered down payouts due to .50 P4 and Dime supers. Impossible to show a profit with $100 P4 payouts being the norm.. Just look at our selections forum. No One showed a profit playing Pick 4's during Saratoga and it wasn't because they weren't hitting them. A few years ago when P4's were at a buck you hit 3 or 4 and were able to show a profit for the meet. That isnt happening anymore but I am in the minority in my feelings for the .50 P4 and dime supers.

http://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/6_month_NV.pdf

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by jms62

Racing's bigger problems IMO are the watered down payouts due to .50 P4 and Dime supers. Impossible to show a profit with $100 P4 payouts being the norm.. Just look at our selections forum. No One showed a profit playing Pick 4's during Saratoga and it wasn't because they weren't hitting them. A few years ago when P4's were at a buck you hit 3 or 4 and were able to show a profit for the meet. That isnt happening anymore but I am in the minority in my feelings for the .50 P4 and dime supers.

You know I disagree with you on this and I don't think there's any data to back it up.

[10 pnt move up]

One person was not happy with Saratoga it appears.

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/stor...aratoga-season

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You know I disagree with you on this and I don't think there's any data to back it up.

I agree with you. Not only are low minimums better because they induce bettors to overuse bad longshots ... but there's nothing stopping anyone from playing a 10-cent bet ten times, or a 50-cent bet twice... and if they do, they avoid IRS signers and on some occasions, even withholding.

The only intelligent argument I've ever heard for higher minimums -- like a $2 pick six for instance -- is that they're much more likely to induce carryovers. Even so, I'm a fan of the lowest possible minimum under every circumstance.

And when one of these 50-cent Pick 5's carryover ... it's a great thing. There was a double-carryover on a 50-cent Pick 5 at Golden Gate earlier in the year that left a massive carryover into a Pick 5 on a day with all small fields and logical looking races. It was a situation where it was like welfare for horseplayers.

Low minimums equal = much better value for bettors who don't chase after hopeless longshots, less IRS paperwork, less chances of withholding, and even some generous carryover situations across the country, for those bettors who try and be optimistic.

I will never understand what JMS is talking about with this.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by jms62

Racing's bigger problems IMO are the watered down payouts due to .50 P4 and Dime supers. Impossible to show a profit with $100 P4 payouts being the norm.. Just look at our selections forum. No One showed a profit playing Pick 4's during Saratoga and it wasn't because they weren't hitting them. A few years ago when P4's were at a buck you hit 3 or 4 and were able to show a profit for the meet. That isnt happening anymore but I am in the minority in my feelings for the .50 P4 and dime supers.

http://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/6_month_NV.pdf

You should use specific examples showing how the parlay is not matching the multi race payoffs. I had run these numbers in socal quite a few times and they almost always, minus strong odds on horses in the sequence, paying more than the parlay.

Also do think its a fair comparison to use in season perfect weather February Las Vegas to 110 degree middle of the off season summer? I would imagine its a rather consistent market trend in that weather climate.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

You should use specific examples showing how the parlay is not matching the multi race payoffs. I had run these numbers in socal quite a few times and they almost always, minus strong odds on horses in the sequence, paying more than the parlay.

Also do think its a fair comparison to use in season perfect weather February Las Vegas to 110 degree middle of the off season summer? I would imagine its a rather consistent market trend in that weather climate.

How is it not fair to compare the same 2 months against the same 2 months last year? Was the weather 30 degrees cooler or something last year in June and July.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Considering that overall handle numbers industrywide have dropped significantly in 10 years isn't an expectation that Saratoga's numbers should have increased odd?

a good summer though per DRF

Handle on U.S. races up 4.7% in August, according to Equibase. Purses up 5.5%, and race days up 1%.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

a good summer though per DRF

Handle on U.S. races up 4.7% in August, according to Equibase. Purses up 5.5%, and race days up 1%.

good!