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#1
08-11-2013, 06:17 AM
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8/11: Saratoga (Day 21-Special, Adirondack)
Defending Horse of the Year Wise Dan put a nice exclamation point on the first half of the Spa stand Saturday with a professional repeat in the Fourstardave over the plucky King Kreesa. While pundits and observers continue to debate the merits or mundaneness of the campaign of Morton Fink's gelding, the Wiseman's Ferry 6yo continues to pile up wins. Now 17 for 24, Wise Dan appears overwhelmingly likely to continue on his present course towards a Breeders' Cup Mile title defense. Charlie Lopresti pushed his personal Saratoga seasonal stakes win mark to 4 years with the win (Wise Dan: 2012-13 Forestardave; Turallure: 2011 Baruch; Here Comes Ben: 2010 Forego) and pushed his '13 record to 9/2-4-3 in the process.
Nothing special happened at the windows on this 4th Saturday as I continued to tread water looking for a bonus hit. Caught a decent P3 tying the 3rd-5th together after misdiagnosing the short field 2nd, but was then stymied badly mid-card by Metiver's 3rd win of the meet ($15.20 Even Got Quiet) and B. Brown's 17-1 Dangerous Lad in the scrambling 8th. Hope everyone did OK. Idyllic Sunday at hand with a pair of 2yo stakes and Dee Tee's My Pal of Pals getting a Saratoga start in the opener.. SARATOGA POST-SCRATCHES 1st: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD) Prefer My Pal of Pals at 7f or so, but it's not available upstate. Should be able to set up shop stalking from cozy slot and have opportunity to contend late if the added ground isn't too taxing.. Most Likely: #5 Pyro City 5-1 2nd Next Best: #9 Bold Forest LATE SCR Best Value: #4 My Pal of Pals 10-1 5th Exotics Use: #2 Bill of Rights 7-2 WON ($5.70) 2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD) Short-priced Pletcher fave will betough to beat but there are hot-working, 'win early' players lurking and all you need to do to envision upset is go back to In Trouble corralling Sound of Freedom Saturday.. Most Likely: #6 Sweet Whiskey 6-5 WON ($2.90) Next Best: #8 Radiant 3-1 4th Exotics Use: #5 Tea Time 10-1 3rd Super Add: #2 Walk of Stars 15-1 7th 3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD) SCR of Talent N Passion will change this a bit.. Most Likely: #3 Gritty Gal 9-2 7th Best Value: #10 Yankeeindixieland 12-1 9th Next Best: #5 Pop Pop's Smyle 5-1 8th Exotics Use: #4 Lenderoflastresort 12-1 6th 4th: MCLM/$65k, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD) Best Value: #4 Lieutenant Seany O 8-1 4th Next Best: #8 Frogman Mel 5-2 3rd Exotics Use: #3 Greek God 7-2 2nd Super Add: #1 Racetrack Romance 5-1 WON ($12.00) 5th: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #3 She's Stone's Sis 8-5 WON ($3.50) Best Value: #2 Zekes Surprise 8-1 3rd Next Best: #6 Motion Lounge 3-1 2nd Exotics Use: #9 My Unbridled Storm 8-1 5th <$50 P4 Play: 2: 2-5-6-7-8 3: 3-5-10 4: 3-4-8 5: 2-3 5x3x3x2 = 90 x .50 = $45 6th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD) Fun baby turf route. Think you want to liberally use prices in this open affair inclusing DWL's Canadian Winner who grappled in the a.m. with Optimizer and held his own.. Most Likely: #1e Ramsey entry 5-2 WON ($4.50)/9th Best Value: #9 Canadian Winner 15-1 10th Next Best: #7 Patent 7-2 3rd Exotics Use: #6 Elrigh 12-1 6th 7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD) SCR Magnificent Shirl who ran in the Auntie Mame Saturday. Another wide open event where no combination will be outlandish. Several D2T and stretchout players involved and watch for potential AE draw-in of #12 Marataya's Tune (12-1) which would add more zip to the already solid pace scenario.. Most Likely: #1 Yes It's Pink 3-1 2nd Next Best: #8 Sense to Compete 4-1 3rd Best Value: #2 Happy Face 10-1 6th Exotics Use: #4 Teen Pauline 7-2 WON ($8.90) Super Add: #6 Neith 20-1 5th 8th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #6 Partly Mocha 6-1 WON ($10.20) Next Best: #11 Jess Not Jesse 4-1 2nd Best Value: #10 Ziptronic 5-1 3rd EXotics Use: #5 Rip Roarin Ritchie 7-2 5th 9th: 97th Adirondack (G2), 2yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD) Calhoun filly seems a notch above the rest of her division right now.. Most Likely: #2 Fiftyshadesofgold 7-5 3rd-Elevated from 4th Next Best: #4 Who's in Town 4-1 4th-DQ'd from Win Best Value: #6 Charmed Hour 12-1 DNF-Broke down Exotics Use: #3 Thank You Marylou 6-1 2nd-Elevated from 3rd 10th: 108th Saratoga Special (G2), 2yo, 6.5f (DD) Well-matched baby boys, but fact that Candy Dandy topped next out winners Dunkin Bend and Best Case Scenario tips scales. None of these would be a surprise.. Most Likely: #3 Candy Dandy 3-1 5th Best Value: #1 Lunarwarfare 6-1 4th Next Best: #5 Twang 5-1 7th Exotics Use: #7 Wired Bryan 7-2 2nd 11th:NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT Best Value: #1a Celesta 5-1 5th Next Best: #9 Atlantic's Smile 4-1 WON ($6.70) Exotics Use: #3 Jennys Creek 7-2 3rd Super Add: #6 Sheedbdawon 3-1 4th <$50 P4 Play: 8: 6-5-10-11 9: 2 10: 1-3-4-5-7 11: 1-3-6-9-10 4x1x5x5 = 100 x .50 = $50 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 08-11-2013 at 05:35 PM. 
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#2
08-11-2013, 10:06 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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