Weekend Stakes Beyers

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by docicu3

BHP ALW (7f): Paynter 114 (Awesome Again) B. Baffert/R. Bejarano


Looked great but 114 ....really?

I don't buy it for a second. Great story, but they went really slow early and he flew home. The variant isn't the same used for other sprints to give that horse a 114.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I don't buy it for a second. Great story, but they went really slow early and he flew home. The variant isn't the same used for other sprints to give that horse a 114.

CJ,

Seemed high to me too with the runner up reaching a significant new top... But aren't the consistent pair that nosed together 3rd/4th the qualifier with typical low 90's efforts?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Kasept

CJ,

Seemed high to me too with the runner up reaching a significant new top... But aren't the consistent pair that nosed together 3rd/4th the qualifier with typical low 90's efforts?

I'd be leary of thinking horses that are way back ran their typical race chasing a much better horse...possible but unlikely in my opinion.

My main point was the race was broken out from the others. I know the chart is a little different now on synthetics, but it isn't THAT different.

Just rough look using 5ths:

R1: Raw Beyer, 92, Beyer 79, Fast 13
R2: Raw Beyer, 79, Beyer 64, Fast 15
R3: Raw Beyer, 84, Beyer 74, Fast 10
R5: Raw Beyer, 72, Beyer 59, Fast 13
R7: Raw Beyer,118, Beyer 114, Fast 4?????

At the very least, it is broken out 6 points from the other 7f race, R3. At most it is broken out about 9 points. Still, that is pretty significant and given the very slow pace hard to imagine those horses running that fast. Dawdling paces don't lead to fast final times.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Still, that is pretty significant and given the very slow pace hard to imagine those horses running that fast. Dawdling paces don't lead to fast final times.

I realize numbers that are fast for one track might be slow at another, but how are these dawdling? :22.68, :45.67, 1:09.56

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

I realize numbers that are fast for one track might be slow at another, but how are these dawdling? :22.68, :45.67, 1:09.56

On the 100 point scale, here are the figures for the race:

First quarter: 81
Second quarter: 77
Final time figure: 90

The race was a -13, just from the 3/8ths pole to the finish line.

Without using numbers, and figures from algorithms to explain it. Here's the far more simple way to do it.

Race #3 was the days other 7 furlong race. Compare the fractions and final time with Paynter's race.

Race #3: $8,000 Claiming Race at 7fs: 22.45, 45.47, 1:24.79

Race #7: Paynter ALW race at 7fs: 22.68, 45.67, 1:21.86


Basically, Paynter got away with setting slower fractions than the $8,000 claiming horses to both the 1/4 and the 1/2. However, he rocketed home in the final 3 furlongs. His final time was about 18 lengths faster than the cheap claimers.

Again, the latter explanation showing Paynter setting slower fractions than 8k claimers at the same distance is a very dumbed down explanation ... sometimes 8k claimers can be run at very wicked paces. The 8/1 shot who set faster fractions than Paynter finished 2nd in the cheap claimer.