Palace Malice

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

moving forward of Orb, Palice Malice, and Oxbow which one would you think will be the most successful?

I don't like Orb at all moving forward.

He was a media darling and a horse beloved by a lot of horsemen ... but I think that level of praise had a lot to do with the new Gulfstream Park's phony reputation as an inside-speed track.

His uninspiring Florida figures were explained away as though he was beating some powerful track bias at Gulfstream. The "closers can't run good figures at Gulfstream" stuff is all nonsense. Ron The Greek ran a 115 Beyer at GP this year. Hymn Book's only career Graded Stakes win came with a wide sweeping move in the Grade 1 Donn Handicap of 2012. Giant Oak won the 2011 Donn.

Who is the least accomplished Derby favorite in recent memory? Probably Dialed In, who beat Shackleford last to first in the Fla Derby, and won the Holy Bull in a race where Mucho Macho Man was the inside speed and faded to 4th.

Who is the least accomplished Belmont favorite in recent memory? Ice Box was a 9/5 favorite in the Belmont Stakes...off a wide sweeping Fla Derby win, and a huge pace setup but troubled KY Derby 2nd.

Gulfstream only has a reputation as an inside track -- because the inside post positions are great in routes due to the very short run into the 1st turn. I've seen more dead rails at GP than your average dirt track. But, it's a 9f track, and outside posts are at a great disadvantage in two-turn routes...so, somehow, that gets translated to mean "rail favoring" to some people.

Gulfstream only has a reputation as a speed track because people are still stuck decades in the past, when the old GP was, at times, very speed favoring. Generally speaking, it's no more speed favoring than your average dirt track.

Easy Goer was an all-time great horse. It's ridiculous that a horse need only win a few races at Gulfstream with moderate figures, and outfinish Golden Soul home in the Kentucky Derby in order for flattering comparisons to him to emerge by the Associated Press.

[10 pnt move up]

Was looking at that 104 for Orb in Derby, might be a little high of a guess in hindsight?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Was looking at that 104 for Orb in Derby, might be a little high of a guess in hindsight?

On the Beyer scale, Derby pace figure would have been in the 140's. Hard to live that pace. The two who best did...were Oxbow and Palace Malice. Goldencents got beat 50 lengths and was in a tight photo finish with Orb for 4th place next out.

[Gaelic Storm]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

On the Beyer scale, Derby pace figure would have been in the 140's. Hard to live that pace. The two who best did...were Oxbow and Palace Malice. Goldencents got beat 50 lengths and was in a tight photo finish with Orb for 4th place next out.

What are your thoughts on the race Normandy Invasion ran in the Derby. I would think he should be a big player later this year.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Gaelic Storm

What are your thoughts on the race Normandy Invasion ran in the Derby. I would think he should be a big player later this year.

I agree. He will be.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Easy Goer was an all-time great horse. It's ridiculous that a horse need only win a few races at Gulfstream with moderate figures, and outfinish Golden Soul home in the Kentucky Derby in order for flattering comparisons to him to emerge by the Associated Press.

In their defense (well, not quite) it wasn't misjudging Orb and Gulfstream so much as lazy journalism. They went 'Oh the connections are the same as Easy Goer? It's like my story's writing itself!' In many cases I don't think they bothered to go much deeper than that. In the ones who did, I think it was less that they thought Orb was like Easy Goer than they just wanted it to be true so badly.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

In their defense (well, not quite) it wasn't misjudging Orb and Gulfstream so much as lazy journalism. They went 'Oh the connections are the same as Easy Goer? It's like my story's writing itself!' In many cases I don't think they bothered to go much deeper than that. In the ones who did, I think it was less that they thought Orb was like Easy Goer than they just wanted it to be true so badly.

I bristled when some of them, like Marcus Hersch, would say 'Shug's best 3-year-old since Easy Goer'

At least they didn't give into the preposterous Easy Goer comparisons, but Coronado's Quest would have had a field day with Orb in a fairly run race.

Imagine Coronado's Quest having Merit Man's trip in the Florida Derby, instead of finishing 3rd beaten 5 lengths like Merit Man was in the Florida Derby, Coronado's Quest might have won the Florida Derby over Orb by 15 lengths, and probably geared down.

Splendid performance by Merit Man in the Woody Stephens, by the way, he was 11th beaten 27 lengths at 12/1.