Analyzing The Preakness

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

A Beyer figure is a final time figure.

The spread between the pace figure and final time figure is computerized. Algorithms.

On a 100 point scale, the pace figure for the Preakness is 4 points faster than the final time figure.

It doesn't matter if you think the race should get a 106 Beyer or a 96 Beyer...the pace figure will be a little faster than the final time.

If you want to see what an actual slow pace going 9.5 furlongs at Pimlico looks like, here's a chart of Friday's Pimlico Special:

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...20130517&RN=12

This race was a -15. The very good Eighttofasttocatch went 49.91 for a half mile.

I understand that. My point about the Beyer figure was simply that the final time was so slow (the slowest final Preakness time in 50 year), that you would expect the Beyer to be really slow, unless Beyer felt that the track was really slow, which he obviously did.

Pimlico is obviously a much slower track than many other tracks. There is no debate about that. A horse like Zee Bros runs 1:08 and change at Santa Anita. At Pimlico, he doesn't break 1:10. We know that Pimlico is a slow track. I'm not comparing Pimlico to other tracks. I'm comparing the Preakness this year to other years. We know the track was slower yesterday than some past years but how much slower? Was the track slower than last year? Maybe, but if it was I don't think it was by much, maybe a couple of ticks. I think the pace was slow yesterday, but I think the best horse still won. If Goldencents would have gunned out there in :47 3/5, I think Stevens would have stalked (3-5 lengths back) and I think Oxbow still wins.