6/8 (BEL) 145th Belmont Stakes: Field at 14 as 'Tiz' passes

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Alan07

Fear The Kitten going to be entered w/ Alan Garcia listed as jockey.

With a grand total of 6 Derby points. I had read where Vegas had a prop bet of the over/under to make the field being set a 20. I had thought at the time that was a ridiculously low number.

6 is unimaginable.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

With a grand total of 6 Derby points. I had read where Vegas had a prop bet of the over/under to make the field being set a 20. I had thought at the time that was a ridiculously low number.

6 is unimaginable.

I think the over/under was 29.5 at one casino.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

With a grand total of 6 Derby points. I had read where Vegas had a prop bet of the over/under to make the field being set a 20. I had thought at the time that was a ridiculously low number.

6 is unimaginable.

Don't forget that 7 horses with 30 points or more are either inactive or off the trail.

This is why the outcry when the system came out about how "so and so would have been excluded" was ridiculous. There are going to be years where the standings are so top heavy (like 2013). All of the top 6 won 2 Derby preps with the exception of Java's War, who finished 2nd in the TB Derby. If there's more of a spread among the prep winners next year, the bottom for points will be a lot higher.

[Calzone Lord]

Orb is obviously going to be the post time favorite in the Kentucky Derby, and he just ran 11 lengths slower than Dreaming of Julia on the same day and same distance.

She's excluded from entering in favor of Fear The Kitten, now that Tiz A Minsiter is out after his 3rd place finish in the Cal Bred stake last weekend.

You know, because she didn't "earn" her way in like they did.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Orb is obviously going to be the post time favorite in the Kentucky Derby, and he just ran 11 lengths slower than Dreaming of Julia on the same day and same distance.

She's excluded from entering in favor of Fear The Kitten, now that Tiz A Minsiter is out after his 3rd place finish in the Cal Bred stake last weekend.

You know, because she didn't "earn" her way in like they did.

I'm not defending the points system, but simply pointing out that yearly changes are going to make the bottom amount needed for entry fluctuate.

The exclusion of races for fillies, the Illinois Derby hilarity, and the BC Juvenile not being an auto entry seem to be the three biggest flaws with the system. The 1st and 3rd have simple fixes. The 2nd depends on if CDI is still in a pissing match with Hawthorne.

I think the GP Oaks-FG Oaks-Gazelle-Ashland and Fantasy should be in the 50 pt range, so should the Juvenile.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm not defending the points system, but simply pointing out that yearly changes are going to make the bottom amount needed for entry fluctuate.

The exclusion of races for fillies, the Illinois Derby hilarity, and the BC Juvenile not being an auto entry seem to be the three biggest flaws with the system. The 1st and 3rd have simple fixes. The 2nd depends on if CDI is still in a pissing match with Hawthorne.

I think the GP Oaks-FG Oaks-Gazelle-Ashland and Fantasy should be in the 50 pt range, so should the Juvenile.

Don't agree. Why should a race Restricted to Fillies have any bearing on entry into an Open race? If the Fillies want to compete then step up and enter the preps.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by jms62

Don't agree. Why should a race Restricted to Fillies have any bearing on entry into an Open race? If the Fillies want to compete then step up and enter the preps.

why should a top horse be barred from entry?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Danzig

why should a top horse be barred from entry?

Why should North Dakota State be barred from BCS championship? The path to the derby is clearly defined as is the path to the BCS. The races are Open and fillies are not barred. A Todd Pletcher horse that freaked at Gulfstream vs 5 other horses in what turned out to be a glorified workout and now eveyone is screaming that the system is broke. Funny I don't remember a single post expressing any outrage that Restricted Filly races were omitted prior to Dreaming of Julia's race. This is my last post on the subject as I need to spend my time handicapping these races good Luck to everyone and especially to those experts that deem anyones opinion but their own as "stupid".

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's a comically stupid point.

No one knew Dreaming of Julia was anywhere near that good until her last race. What kind of moronic trainer would have started her in the Florida Derby?

here is a list of every single filly to race in the Kentucky Derby since 1945:

2010 Devil May Care
2008 Eight Belles
1999 Excellent Meeting
1999 Three Ring
1995 Serena's Song
1988 Winning Colors
1984 Life's Magic
1984 Althea
1982 Cupecoy's Joy
1980 Genuine Risk
1959 Silver Spoon

That's a grand total of just 11 fillies. And 2 of them won it.

I think the last filly to enter the Preakness was Rachel Alexandra, she won.

I think the last filly to enter the Belmont is Rags to Riches, she won.

The simple solution was always to slap the 'win and you're in' label on the final major Kentucky Oaks preps.

Under the old system... thousands of fillies had the Graded Earnings to get into the Derby ... of those thousands, only 11 started. Even Rachel Alexandra and Rags To Riches ducked.

The 19th and 20th horses to get in on points are going to be garbage pales almost every year...if you haven't figured that out yet. And even top class fillies are going to avoid the Derby because of the conservative nature of horse trainers... if you haven't figured that out yet.

It's actually far from comically stupid. It's totally relevant.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's relevant if you don't have any idea what you're talking about.

Even D. Wayne Lukas wouldn't have run Dreaming of Julia in the Florida Derby. She wasn't even the morning line favorite in the race she plastered Live Lively and Emollient by 20+ lengths.

Luckily, Goldencents was born with a set of balls and a shaft. He has a MUCH better shot in the Derby than he would the Kentucky Oaks.

And 10-15 others too.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's relevant if you don't have any idea what you're talking about.

Even D. Wayne Lukas wouldn't have run Dreaming of Julia in the Florida Derby. She wasn't even the morning line favorite in the race she plastered Live Lively and Emollient by 20+ lengths.

Luckily, Goldencents was born with a set of balls and a shaft. He has a MUCH better shot in the Derby than he would the Kentucky Oaks.

Right, becasue Derby Fever can hit owners of horses like Fear The Kitten, but it can't hit the owners of a filly that runs 3rd twice in races restricted to fillies. Or perhaps two fillies.

My point is that there is no fair way to fix this problem that you are saying exists. And you are somehow absolving the connections of the fillies of any blame at all.

[GenuineRisk]

I agree with you, Doug, that the filly races should have some weight toward the Derby since 3-year-olds are so lightly raced nowadays that, as you said, no one knew Dreaming of Julia was that good until her last race, but the list you offer up of the fillies that ran in the Derby doesn't help the argument. Of the list, the only one who hit the board and would have been excluded under the current system is Eight Belles.

2010 Devil May Care- 10th
2008 Eight Belles- 2nd
1999 Excellent Meeting- 5th
1999 Three Ring- 19th
1995 Serena's Song- 16th (won Jim Beam against males)
1988 Winning Colors- 1st (won Santa Anita Derby)
1984 Life's Magic- 8th (ran 5th in Santa Anita Derby)
1984 Althea- 19th (won Arkansas Derby)
1982 Cupecoy's Joy- 10th
1980 Genuine Risk- 1st (third in Wood)
1959 Silver Spoon- 5th (won Santa Anita Derby)

So over half of them raced against the boys prior to the Derby anyway. The Preakness and Belmont aren't relevant as nothing has changed with them.

Again, I agree with you that the Oaks prep races should count, because I agree filly owners don't run fillies unless they feel they have a real chance and it's good for the sport's profile when fillies run in the Derby. I just don't think that the fillies' record in the Derby helps the argument as the two winners would have made it in under the current system anyway, and Eight Belles is perhaps not the ideal poster child for good fillies who would have been excluded( RIP).

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

I agree with you, Doug, that the filly races should have some weight toward the Derby since 3-year-olds are so lightly raced nowadays that, as you said, no one knew Dreaming of Julia was that good until her last race, but the list you offer up of the fillies that ran in the Derby doesn't help the argument. Of the list, the only one who hit the board and would have been excluded under the current system is Eight Belles.

2010 Devil May Care- 10th
2008 Eight Belles- 2nd
1999 Excellent Meeting- 5th
1999 Three Ring- 19th
1995 Serena's Song- 16th (won Jim Beam against males)
1988 Winning Colors- 1st (won Santa Anita Derby)
1984 Life's Magic- 8th (ran 5th in Santa Anita Derby)
1984 Althea- 19th (won Arkansas Derby)
1982 Cupecoy's Joy- 10th
1980 Genuine Risk- 1st (third in Wood)
1959 Silver Spoon- 5th (won Santa Anita Derby)

So over half of them raced against the boys prior to the Derby anyway. The Preakness and Belmont aren't relevant as nothing has changed with them.

Again, I agree with you that the Oaks prep races should count, because I agree filly owners don't run fillies unless they feel they have a real chance and it's good for the sport's profile when fillies run in the Derby. I just don't think that the fillies' record in the Derby helps the argument as the two winners would have made it in under the current system anyway, and Eight Belles is perhaps not the ideal poster child for good fillies who would have been excluded( RIP).

yeah, if the whole point of the system was to get the best in the race, they have to find a way to include the top fillies, if they wish to enter.
they have wildcard points, don't they? that should include some of the big filly races like the santa anita oaks for example.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

but the list you offer up of the fillies that ran in the Derby doesn't help the argument.

Yes it does. Horses are much less frequently raced than in the 1980's and before that:

Here are the 1981 Derby PP's: http://www.drf.com/row/pps/1981.pdf

The top fillies were far more likely to get tried in preps against males in the old days because horses raced a lot more frequently.

However ... the ENTIRE point of the list is that fillies were almost never entered against males when the system was based on Graded Earnings.

Since 1945, several thousand fillies could have entered and raced in the Kentucky Derby ... yet only 11 did.

So, why the need to make a point system designed to keep them out? Because Eight Belles broke down when she was pulling herself up on the gallop out after dusting 18 of the 19 males she faced?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Orb is obviously going to be the post time favorite in the Kentucky Derby, and he just ran 11 lengths slower than Dreaming of Julia on the same day and same distance.

She's excluded from entering in favor of Fear The Kitten, now that Tiz A Minsiter is out after his 3rd place finish in the Cal Bred stake last weekend.

You know, because she didn't "earn" her way in like they did.

I was under the impression they had no desire to run her in the Derby anyway. I guess if they could it might be a different story, but we'll never know.

Overall point taken, but if they weren't going to run anyway, it's hard to blame the point system.

It's like the people complaining about Departing getting "shut out" of the Derby. He could be running in it. The connections are choosing not to.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Orb is obviously going to be the post time favorite in the Kentucky Derby, and he just ran 11 lengths slower than Dreaming of Julia on the same day and same distance.

She's excluded from entering in favor of Fear The Kitten, now that Tiz A Minsiter is out after his 3rd place finish in the Cal Bred stake last weekend.

You know, because she didn't "earn" her way in like they did.

it's ridiculous.
they need to include points in some of the bigger filly races-if she got half credit for her wins she'd still be in, as she should be if they wanted to enter her.