Week/Weekend Stakes Beyers

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by keithting

Steve:

Any Beyer on Incognito in Aqu 9th yesterday? That was an impressive run...

Maybe see him at Pimlico next?

Incognito 86

Had been rumored for IL Derby originally with Preakness on their minds before staying home for this..

[Alabama Stakes]

What did you think of the 2 big races yesterday Steve ?

[justindew]

Steve, when you consider the slow start and the fact that Java's War ran 52 feet more than the runner-up, is it reasonable to view that 89 a little more favorably? I ask because I don't really know much about the science/art behind how these figs are made.

JD

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by justindew

Steve, when you consider the slow start and the fact that Java's War ran 52 feet more than the runner-up, is it reasonable to view that 89 a little more favorably? I ask because I don't really know much about the science/art behind how these figs are made.

If you think the start cost Java War 2 lengths and that he ran an extra 7 lengths or so, you could reasonably add 14 pts to the 89 and use 103 when comparing to other horses's trouble-adjusted figs.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

If you think the start cost Java War 2 lengths and that he ran an extra 7 lengths or so, you could reasonably add 14 pts to the 89 and use 103 when comparing to other horses's trouble-adjusted figs.

Another way to look at it is how much EXTRA trouble did Java War experience, beyond what he can expect to experience on his next trip? If he is a chronically slow starter, and you have no reason to think they will fix that before the Derby, then you don't want to adjust his speed fig for that poor start when comparing it to other Derby horses. If he is a devoted come-from-behind-late horse, then you have to assume he will experience as much or more ground-loss when coming from behind in the Derby with 19 horses instead of 13 to deal with. Again, you don't want to adjust the speed fig upward. You might, in fact, be inclined to adjust it downward, on the assumption that passing 19 horses is likely going to be tougher than passing 13. Sure, he might find a route closer to the rail and pass the 19 horses that way, but the gain from that scenario is offset by the excellent chance that he will have the checked/steadied kind of trouble.

Unless you have good reason to think that Java War will have less trouble in the Ky Derby than in the Blue Grass, you're left with the original 89 as the best description of Java War's Blue Grass.

--Dunbar

[skippy3481]

very insightful post dunbar, thank you for posting your thoughts.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by justindew

Steve, when you consider the slow start and the fact that Java's War ran 52 feet more than the runner-up, is it reasonable to view that 89 a little more favorably? I ask because I don't really know much about the science/art behind how these figs are made.

JD

Dewwaditty!

Since the joint went to poly, the Blue Grass has regularly been a slow fig race with I think only General Quarters and Dullahan (98/99) approaching a 'fast' fig. Monba, Stately Victor, Dominican, Brilliant Speed were all in the low 90's. With a lot of Blue Grass exiters (Paddy O'Prado another example), you didn't have quality dirt efforts to fall back on. At least with Java's War you have some authentic dirt form in the Tampa Bay Derby placement (96 in 3yo seasonal debut) to reference as well as the come home time from Saturday.

I think Java's War is pretty good and is absolutely bred to relish added distance. As discussed yesterday on ATR, this Derby group isn't going to produce the typical frantic early pace, so Java's War likely isn't going to be closing into a collapsing scenario, but he'll be running at the end when others have packed it in.