Fun Fact about the two Keeneland Kentucky Derby Prep Races

[Calzone Lord]

Since switching to Polytrack, the post time favorite is 0-for-12 in the Blue Grass and Lexington.

However, the longest shot on the board is 3-for-12 for a 25% win rate.

* All Squared Away won last years edition of the Lexington Stakes at 70/1 odds as the largest price on the board.

* Stately Victor romped home a 4+ length winner over Paddy O Prado and First Dude in the 2010 Blue Grass Stakes as the longest price on the board at 40/1.

* Slew's Tizzy won the 2007 Lexington Stakes by 3.5 lengths at 40/1 odds as the longest shot on the board. Starbase, the 36/1 second largest price on the board, finished 2nd to complete a $1,002.20 exacta.

There was also a few close calls...

For instance, in the 2011 Blue Grass Stakes, Brilliant Speed and Twinspired finished 1st and 2nd as the 10th and 11th largest prices on the board in the field of 12.

Favorites certainly have come close though ... the closet was Street Sense, who was beaten only a nose in the 2007 Blue Grass by Domincan. Street Sense returned from that nose defeat to win the Kentucky Derby next time out. Dominican raced 15 more times after winning the Blue Grass... his only victory coming in an allowance race over the Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs.

[Danzig]

so, based on that, what longshot(s) has a chance in the bluegrass? footbridge?

[Calzone Lord]

My point is basically that Polytrack has made these 3-year-old preps (The Blue Grass and Lexington) to be chaos. The stats, while of a limited sample size, point that out.

I prefer the rail horse with Rosario and Footbridge.

This years Blue Grass has an usually wide open look to it.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

My point is basically that Polytrack has made these 3-year-old preps (The Blue Grass and Lexington) to be chaos. The stats, while of a limited sample size, point that out.

I prefer the rail horse with Rosario and Footbridge.

This years Blue Grass has an usually wide open look to it.

oh, i got your point. i was just figuring you had a reason for mentioning it, with this years renewal being a crap shoot. i really think this is a good year for a high payout. it just seems a desperation play by many still trying to figure out a if a horse is good or not. i think the kitten horse not with pletcher has a shot. chad brown doesn't like balance the books draw, but he likes how the horse has been training there-but how much weight can you give a trainers comments? maybe his gate displeasure is an upfront excuse if the horse does poorly.
but of the longer shots, i like footbridge the best.
as for the shorter prices-i don't see anyone make a bridgejumpers bet, because i don't see a lower odd horse that screams guarantee to hit the board.