AQU: An 'Inner' Preview

#1 11-17-2006, 08:32 AM

Steve I'm not so sure that the inner track will be "speed favoring" today.
The tight turns are most often mentioned when the discussion of speed on the inner dust come up but in reality the Aqueduct inner dirt is the answer to a great bar bet. The question on the bet is : Saratoga, Belmont, Aqueduct Main, and Aqueduct Inner, which one has the longest stretch? The answer is the Aqueduct inner dirt track. It has the longest stretch of the 4 NY dirt tracks.
The reason its often speed favoring is that the lime base firms up during the cold months and often leads to speed carrying. My observations over the years have been when there are warm temperatures or a thaw on the inner dirt that closers actually outperform the speed horses.
Its warm today, and I don't know that they worked it a whole lot yet because it wasn't scheduled for opening until two weeks from this past Wednesday.
I strongly suggest that those playing today watch the first few races and take a look at how the track is playing before dumping any serious coin into any plays.
Dreamin of Victory should air in the feature. I tried to buy him privately this past summer for someone but I felt they wanted too much money for him. Either they dropped the price or Parisella/Kupferberg were willing to pay what they wanted.
Hes had some less than ideal trips against much better horses and has faced better than these have. Also the race is completely and totally devoid of speed, one of the most paceless races that I have ever seen. Believe it or not, with his inside draw, he may very well set the pace or be right off it.
Send it in with both fists on this one.

Kasept · #2 11-17-2006, 08:38 AM

Mike,

Appreciate the added insights.. Thing about today is that they had no idea it was coming and the track has been sealed tight since Spring. No one has even worked over it. Contessa said they were going to unseal it with the equipment today, so I imagine it should be really tight. Will be pretty interesting.

I'm in the Capping Tourney at the Teletheater this weekend, and you have to play 6 races BOTH days at AQU as part of it... REALLY throws a wrench at things!

#3 11-17-2006, 08:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Mike,

Appreciate the added insights.. Thing about today is that they had no idea it was coming and the track has been sealed tight since Spring. No one has even worked over it. Contessa said they were going to unseal it with the equipment today, so I imagine it should be really tight. Will be pretty interesting.

I'm in the Capping Tourney at the Teletheater this weekend, and you have to play 6 races BOTH days at AQU as part of it... REALLY throws a wrench at things!

A friend and I are in the same tourney. Hes entering and playing for us with me adding in over the phone.
Was gonna go down but have a wicked head cold.
I have one more bit of info to pass along to Derby Trailers in the 4th race at Aqueduct.
Before her debut on October 21st Biogio's Bella was working sensationally up here at Oklahoma. She was working so well that we tried to buy her and came close but couldn't agree upon price.
Bet her in her debut and lost some cash. She took some money and ran poorly. Turns out she entrapped in that race so its a complete and total tossout, when they can't breathe they sure as hell can't run.
Bond has really heated up as of late, and hes 20% with 2nd time starters as compared to 2% with firsters(that was before yesterday when he won with his 2nd first time starter in 2 years, so lets call it 6%) and Prado sticks with her. Mott's filly is obviously well bred and has many works, so she ought to be fit. But Biogio's Bella was really working up a storm before her debut and with that excuse that is not apparent in the DRF, she may offer some value. Make sure you use her in your pik's and exotic wagers.