3/30 (GP): FL Derby (G1), GP Oaks (G2), 5 undercard stakes

[Conrad]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What race has she run that makes her competitive?

She will be, and should be, a LOT higher than 4:1.

She battled 3 wide in the Temtped thru very fast splits but couldn't get by a determined winner while 6 clear of the show horse. Yes, it was only a 4 horse field, but it was also her 2nd lifetime start and i say she performed very well.
I know - that was way back in Nov - but her barn is having a nice lil meet & can win off the bench.
What really intrigued me is her early pace (she can sit all over Live Lively) and her worktab, which seems like it's directed towards her getting a distance of ground. Two easy 6f works, a 1m work and a nice 5f bullet on Mar 23. I think Rosie will opt to stalk.
Clearly, a prep race woulda been nice. She's not the soundest gal around with two layoff lines in two lifetime starts, but she's a brawler (see her chart comments).
Faces two classy gals in LL and DOJ, both of whom can move forward 2nd off the shelf.
Still, she gets in light at 116lbs, has very good speed, and can be involved for a long way at hopefully 6-1 or better.

[Calzone Lord]

Pletcher horses who are making their 2nd start today since the Gulfstream Park meet started:

Gulfstream Race #2: Travelin Man (1st by 4 lengths at 2/1)

Gulfstream Race #8: Dreaming of Julia (1st by 21.75 lengths at 8/5)

Fair Grounds Race #7: Unlimited Budget (1st, beat Flashy Grey by 1.75 lengths)

3-for-3 and winning by a combined 27.5 lengths.


Yeah ... I'm not betting against Shanghai Bobby today. He's 5/2 with 5 minutes to post right now. I'm surprised he isn't getting pounded.

[Calzone Lord]

Orb got the job done in the Florida Derby. Shanghai Bobby simply couldn't rate and was very rank.

Normally, you'd say it was a comically terrible ride...but this was a final prep race, so the tactical buffoonery was expected and can be excused. Derby winners are usually one-time speed horses who thrive when attempting rating tactics.

I've not been a fan of Orb at all, but he is a better horse than I had thought.

Still, his final time was 11 lengths slower than Dreaming Of Julia freakish win at the same distance earlier today.

Do you really want a horse in the Kentucky Derby who just ran 11 lengths slower than a filly? I don't. At least not for 1st or 2nd. He has the right style to run 3rd or 4th if he gets pace.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Orb got the job done in the Florida Derby. Shanghai Bobby simply couldn't rate and was very rank.

Normally, you'd say it was a comically terrible ride...but this was a final prep race, so the tactical buffoonery was expected and can be excused. Derby winners are usually one-time speed horses who thrive when attempting rating tactics.

I've not been a fan of Orb at all, but he is a better horse than I had thought.

Still, his final time was 11 lengths slower than Dreaming Of Julia freakish win at the same distance earlier today.

Do you really want a horse in the Kentucky Derby who just ran 11 lengths slower than a filly? I don't. At least not for 1st or 2nd. He has the right style to run 3rd or 4th if he gets pace.

The BSF will be closer then the raw data would suggest

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by freddymo

The BSF will be closer then the raw data would suggest

No it won't, Freddy.

There doesn't appear to be any reason to split it...

Dreaming of Julia will get a figure about 17 points faster than Orb.

However, we both know she's not a likely candidate to repeat it as she leaves Pletcher's Playground and ships to a place he struggled at last year, Churchill Downs.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

No it won't, Freddy.

There doesn't appear to be any reason to split it...

Dreaming of Julia will get a figure about 17 points faster than Orb.

However, we both know she's not a likely candidate to repeat it as she leaves Pletcher's Playground and ships to a place he struggled at last year, Churchill Downs.

I would think when they get thru doing the math and mad science the fig for Orb will be 9 to 11 pts lower then the Pletcherized Filly.. You think the Orb race is a 97 and 114 for the filly? No chance

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I would think when they get thru doing the math and mad science the fig for Orb will be 9 to 11 pts lower then the Pletcherized Filly.. You think the Orb race is a 97 and 114 for the filly? No chance

Why not 97 and 114? The filly finished over 21 lengths ahead of the rest of the field. A 114 for the winner would put the 2nd place filly's BSF in the 80's, which hardly seems too high.

--Dunbar

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I would think when they get thru doing the math and mad science the fig for Orb will be 9 to 11 pts lower then the Pletcherized Filly.. You think the Orb race is a 97 and 114 for the filly? No chance

It's already up Freddy. 114 for Dreaming of Julia and 97 for Orb. Cigar Street and Cio Bella each with 104.

It's possible that those figs might be a touch on the high side...but I was horrendously wrong about Orb.

If he ran a 97 today, he did it without much setup. His 97 last time out was with the setup of a lifetime and I think he was in light at 116lbs as well.

He got absolutely no such help today...and if you believe he repeated that figure, Orb really took a monster step up today imo.

The two speeds, Merit Man from post 9 (29/1 and should have been 290/1) and Narveaz from extreme outside post 10 (103/1 and should been 1,003/1) -- they hung around to finish 3rd and 4th. Had Shangei Bobby not been strangled into submission and so rank, those 3rd and 4th place finishers would have been toast.

The real disappointment was It'smyluckyday... that was as big a clunker as when he laid an egg at Delta Downs in the Delta Jackpot with no apparent excuse.

Still, even though Orb had no help at all today, his believers needed a faster time.

In 2008: Big Brown won the FLA Derby from the 12-hole in 1:48.16 -- She's All Eltish took the Oaks by 7 lengths one race earlier in 1:51.80

On that day, the Derby went 3.64 seconds faster, on this day, the Oaks went 1.90 seconds faster.

The real news this day was the Rachel Alexandra like performance of Dreaming of Julia at Pletcher's Playground. She had the speed of Dream Rush, and the staying power of A. P. Indy on this day.