3/22-24 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool 3)

[herkhorse]

how does a horse like Mr. Palmer make that field?

[Aly-Sheba]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

how does a horse like Mr. Palmer make that field?

And how does Super Ninety Nine not the make list? They are clueless!!

[herkhorse]

I think it was Jude Feld who said they should give a horse 10 points just for being included in the future pools. If they're not going to expand the list, I like that idea.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I think it was Jude Feld who said they should give a horse 10 points just for being included in the future pools. If they're not going to expand the list, I like that idea.

I heard him say that on air, and I can't see any logic behind it. I think it's silly that they don't have a real future book pool with all Derby-nominated horses as a separate betting interest. Having the future book committee play a role in determining who gets in the Derby field because Churchill is unwilling to have a real future book wager only compounds the problem.

[Kasept]

DRF FUTURE WAGER PP'S

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

how does a horse like Mr. Palmer make that field?

I think a Mr. Palmer is a great inclusion.. He may be a down the road type or completely ordinary but he's a speculative play that may be getting good at the right time too. You'll get him Sunday for 60-1 and if he jumps up and runs big in the Wood, you've got a fun puncher's chance safety ticket for Derby Day.

[goodcopy]

Distance?,Is he not a higher rated horse than Verrazano in the Pletcher Barn?
Per odds best bet on the 3rd pool board!

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I think a Mr. Palmer is a great inclusion.. He may be a down the road type or completely ordinary but he's a speculative play that may be getting good at the right time too. You'll get him Sunday for 60-1 and if he jumps up and runs big in the Wood, you've got a fun puncher's chance safety ticket for Derby Day.

I agree. His 88 Beyer in the Private Terms is accompanied by this trip line: "Brk slw,pinch,5-7w,drv". I haven't watched the Private Terms, but that sounds like 3+ lengths of trouble, which would bring his speed fig up into the low-mid 90's. Certainly competitive with most of the horses in the Future Wager.

With $100K in the Win Pool, he's 54-1.

--Dunbar

[herkhorse]

If I liked Mr. Palmer, I'd just bet him heavy in the Wood.

[Dunbar]

Here are will pays calculated from final pool amounts at KentuckyDerby.com. There's some kind of minor rounding off going on. The sum of the 24 individual amounts bet is $12 less than what the website is showing as the total win pool. So some of these Will-Pays may be off by 20 cents:

1 Code West $61.80
2 Den's Legacy $89.60
3 Falling Sky $192.40
4 Flashback $33.40
5 Goldencents $101.80
6 Hear the Ghost $33.00
7 Itsmyluckyday $23.80
8 Java's War $65.40
9 Mr Palmer $111.20
10 Noble Tune $102.40
11 Normandy Invasion $39.20
12 Orb $29.60
13 Overanalyze $101.60
14 Oxbow $44.80
15 Palace Malice $87.00
16 Revolutionary $27.80
17 Shakin It Up $74.80
18 Shanghai Bobby $38.80
19 Uncaptured $64.40
20 Verrazano $17.00
21 Vyjack $23.20
22 War Academy $39.80
23 Will Take Charge $41.80
24 All Other Three Ye $13.40


--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Here are the pays from DRF along with the previous Pool odds for each horse. (my pays were off by 20cents on 3 of the horses.)


POOL 3 FINAL ODDS

(No., Horse, Pool 1 odds, Pool 2 odds, Pool 3 odds)

1. Code West, 56-1, 28-1, 29-1, $61.80

2. Den’s Legacy, 77-1, 68-1, 43-1, $89.60

3. Falling Sky, 114-1, 79-1, 95-1, $192.40

4. Flashback, 12-1, 12-1, 15-1, $33.40

5. Goldencents, 20-1, 24-1, 49-1, $101.80

6. Hear the Ghost, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 15-1, $33

7. Itsmyluckyday, 13-1, 13-1, 10-1, $23.80

8. Java’s War, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 31-1, $65.40

9. Mr Palmer, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 54-1, $111.40

10. Noble Tune, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 50-1, $102.40

11. Normandy Invasion, 15-1, 17-1, 18-1, $39.20

12. Orb, 3-2(f), 12-1, 13-1, $29.60

13. Overanalyze, 33-1, 37-1, 49-1, $101.60

14. Oxbow, 26-1, 31-1, 21-1, $44.60

15. Palice Malice, 3-2(f), 40-1, 42-1, $87

16. Revolutionary, 13-1, 15-1, 12-1, $27.80

17. Shakin It Up, 3-2(f), 48-1, 36-1, $74.80

18. Shanghai Bobby, 14-1, 16-1, 18-1, $38.80

19. Uncaptured, 40-1, 35-1, 31-1, $64.40

20. Verrazano, 11-1, 9-1, 7-1, $17

21. Vyjack, 49-1, 11-1, 10-1, $23.20

22. War Academy, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 18-1, $39.80

23. Will Take Charge, 61-1, 3-1(f), 19-1, $41.80

24. Field (all others), 3-2, 3-1, 5-1, $13.40

(f) – Field entry in Pool 1 and/or 2.

[FATPIANO]

No respect for Shanhai Bobby, Champion 2yr old, undefeated as a two year old, in his first start at 3, runs his best race and comes in 2nd, in a track record performance, If he runs them into the ground in The Florida Derby, he might even be favored Derby Day, and here he is at 15-1 in the futures,