Pure luck?

[DEES3]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Go through the DRF Archives and read about the sport when it was played at incredibly low takeout rates.

When you read about the people, successful in life and business, who lost incredible fortunes in the betting ring and ended up broke. It was almost always written that those people paid the best for and sought out "inside information"

The most successful guys like Pittsburgh Phil were true handicappers. He worked for $5 a week in a button factory in Pittsburgh and became a multi millionaire through betting when almost no one had that kind of money, and he was a tabloid sensation.

Pittsburgh Phil's don't exist anymore because of the dramatically higher takeout.

The super-rich successful businessman Mike Repole types don't blow fortunes betting horses anymore either. Because of the high takeout. That animal still exists when it comes to owning horses, but not so much in terms of betting on races.

Any competent handicapper who can read a toteboard can see when inside-info money is being bet. And the inside-info usually comes on the opinion of trainers, exercise riders, jockeys, and clockers

Spend some time talking to trainers, exercise riders, jockeys, and clockers...

If I could book the bets made by those four groups, even at a 5% takeout, it would be the happiest day of my life.

Sure, they might have an edge in rare situations (a first-time starter or layoff horse) ... but a lot of them are TERRIBLE at evaluating the other guys horse.

What percentage of bettors beat the take-out long term? I assume these numbers aren't made public by twinspires or other outlets.