New Zealand Racing, 2012-13

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No prizes for guessing who we look at next...

VALBUENA

3 g Darci Brahma - Vega Sicilia (G1-placed mare)
Breeder: Pencarrow Stud (P & P Vela)
Owner: Pencarrow Stud (P & P Vela)
Trainer: Bruce Wallace
Jockey: James McDonald?

6 starts
2 wins
0 seconds
0 thirds

Major races:
1st Avondale Guineas G2
Late-finishing 5th Wellington Stakes G3
Late-finishing 6th Great Northern Guineas G2

Best replay to watch:
Avondale Guineas, Ellerslie, 17 February
http://www.nzracing.co.nz/RaceInfo/4...ce-Detail.aspx

Derby odds: 6.00 (equal 2nd fav)

+ Sensational win in the Avondale Guineas yesterday
+ Pedigree suggests strong stamina, and that's backed up by that performance yesterday in his first attempt around two turns

- Fluke? Can he possibly do this again in the Derby?

This beautifully bred gelding has caught the eye with several of his performances - a big maiden win at Hastings in October and some strong late bids over unsuitably short distances since - and he's always looked like a good horse in the making. But no one could have expected him to do it so soon. At 35-1 and against the best field assembled so far on the Derby trail, Valbuena produced an explosive breakout performance to dent some big reputations and create one of his own. But can he do it twice in a row? Or is this Derby still going to come too soon for a horse who maybe still isn't quite the finished product?