Beyer on Rainbow 6

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by helicopter11

I doubt anyone of the people who hit the pick 6 today did it based off of 1 ten cent ticket. Then you can compare your parlay fact to that person who did.

Wow.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Wow.

There's a reason I have him on ignore.

[art vanderlay]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Did you take a look at the parlay?

It was over $400K for a dime.

I wasn't aware we where going to have a math test today. Sorry I usually play 2 10 cent tickets by making a zig zag pattern I figure thats enough of an investment.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by art vanderlay

I wasn't aware we were going to have a math test today. Sorry I usually play 2 10 cent tickets by making a zig zag pattern I figure thats enough of an investment.

and probably as sensible a way to play the bet before the mandatory payout as trying to handicap.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There's a reason I have him on ignore.

I realized my mistake above. I wasnt thinking it through. I suppose one could have played each one of thier combonations individually as a parlay (as opposed to the pick 6) and hit it for the aforementioned amount. I apologize.

[ateamstupid]

philcski, who doesn't post here anymore for some reason, brought this to my attention on Twitter. The Rainbow 6 has been routinely paying well above the parlay since the jackpot got into seven figures. So I ran the #'s for the last 3 weeks:

Jan. 24 - R6 pays $543 (parlay: $384)
Jan. 25 - R6 pays $1,147 (parlay: $785)
Jan. 26 - R6 pays $8,933 (parlay: $3,541)
Jan. 27 - R6 pays $464 (parlay: $255)
Jan. 30 - R6 pays $1,188 (parlay: $703)
Jan. 31 - R6 pays $10,276 (parlay: $2,152)
Feb. 1 - R6 pays $14,308 (parlay: $6,443)
Feb. 2 - R6 pays $1,053 (parlay: $306)
Feb. 3 - R6 pays $15,017 (parlay: $6,689)
Feb. 6 - R6 pays $111,535 (parlay: $408,887)
Feb. 7 - R6 pays $4,429 (parlay: $1,792)
Feb. 8 - R6 pays $3,521 (parlay: $706)
Feb. 9 - R6 pays $1,590 (parlay: $1,628)
Feb. 10 - R6 pays $18,246 (parlay: $15,117)

It's beaten the parlay 12 out of the last 14 cards and the only time it was a notably bad bet was that crazy day where bombs won every race. It's also been more than double the parlay on 7 of 14 cards. Something to think about at least. Logic says this would be a terrible bet except on mandatory payout day, but the recent numbers say otherwise.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

It's beaten the parlay 12 out of the last 14 cards and the only time it was a notably bad bet was that crazy day where bombs won every race. It's also been more than double the parlay on 7 of 14 cards. Something to think about at least. Logic says this would be a terrible bet except on mandatory payout day, but the recent numbers say otherwise.

Thanks for posting these figures. I think it makes some sense, due to the "jackpot" nature of the wager, and counterintuitive betting strategy needed to hit the jackpot. Little-hope longshots that would take almost no money in a conventional pic-6 pool likely get far more play in the Rainbow 6 pool (from those trying to hit the jackpot), thus increasing the "rainbow 6 odds" of more logical contenders.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Thanks for posting these figures. I think it makes some sense, due to the "jackpot" nature of the wager, and counterintuitive betting strategy needed to hit the jackpot. Little-hope longshots that would take almost no money in a conventional pic-6 pool likely get far more play in the Rainbow 6 pool (from those trying to hit the jackpot), thus increasing the "rainbow 6 odds" of more logical contenders.

I agree with this. Hopeless horses are getting included in races that you can probably narrow safely. I think the way to play it is smaller tickets looking for the daily payout which is somewhat inflated inspite of the takeout.

[Calzone Lord]

Any multi-win wager should trounce the parlay.

Assume the win takeout is 16% -- you're getting six separate bites of it over the course of the bet.

Where as, for instance, a pick 3 with a 20% takeout is a single bite, so obviously it figures to pay more than the parlay.

The popularity of these low minimum 12% and 15% takeout pick 5's is understandable because they are an extremely favorable bet and they always obliterate the parlay.

However, they're a perverted bet in a sense that the lower takeout would be much better for everyone if it came in the form of a wager that was high churn and easy to hit.

I've always believed that a track should experiment with like an 8% takeout in the place pool.

Leave the takeout rates the same for all other bets -- but make place bets 8%. I think you'll see the handle in the place pool soar dramatically (obviously) and it would also have a very positive impact on the handle of exotic wagers over time.

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

philcski, who doesn't post here anymore for some reason, brought this to my attention on Twitter. The Rainbow 6 has been routinely paying well above the parlay since the jackpot got into seven figures. So I ran the #'s for the last 3 weeks:

Jan. 24 - R6 pays $543 (parlay: $384)
Jan. 25 - R6 pays $1,147 (parlay: $785)
Jan. 26 - R6 pays $8,933 (parlay: $3,541)
Jan. 27 - R6 pays $464 (parlay: $255)
Jan. 30 - R6 pays $1,188 (parlay: $703)
Jan. 31 - R6 pays $10,276 (parlay: $2,152)
Feb. 1 - R6 pays $14,308 (parlay: $6,443)
Feb. 2 - R6 pays $1,053 (parlay: $306)
Feb. 3 - R6 pays $15,017 (parlay: $6,689)
Feb. 6 - R6 pays $111,535 (parlay: $408,887)
Feb. 7 - R6 pays $4,429 (parlay: $1,792)
Feb. 8 - R6 pays $3,521 (parlay: $706)
Feb. 9 - R6 pays $1,590 (parlay: $1,628)
Feb. 10 - R6 pays $18,246 (parlay: $15,117)

It's beaten the parlay 12 out of the last 14 cards and the only time it was a notably bad bet was that crazy day where bombs won every race. It's also been more than double the parlay on 7 of 14 cards. Something to think about at least. Logic says this would be a terrible bet except on mandatory payout day, but the recent numbers say otherwise.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Any multi-win wager should trounce the parlay.

Exactly. Honestly, you guys are looking at this a little simplistically. Given a Pick-4 with a 25% takeout rates to pay about 38% over the parlay in a 16% win pool takeout, a 20% takeout ( the Rainbow-6 ) versus a 15% Win takeout rate figures to probably pay over 65% more than the parlay ( I would figure it out but I'm late for dinner ).

[Kasept]

Maury Wolff on ATR Wednesday 9:30 to provide his insights on the wager..

[GPK]

I hit 5 of 6 (ran 2nd with Bourbon Courage in the race I missed) this past Sat on a $12 ticket. I will continue to prob throw between $15-$20 a ticket for kicks and giggles to maybe catch a small payoff, but noway am I gonna throw a few hundred dollars at what is virtually now, an unhittable ticket.

[TheSpyder]

Yea, for me it's playing a ticket I would never even dreamed of player just for fun. It makes us players who are at a different levels get a chance.

[herkhorse]

If nothing else, it's great practice on playing a pic 6 with a 2.00 increment.

[geojr130]

The best way to play this bet is to hit the quick pick. or wait till April 5th

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Any multi-win wager should trounce the parlay.

Assume the win takeout is 16% -- you're getting six separate bites of it over the course of the bet.

Where as, for instance, a pick 3 with a 20% takeout is a single bite, so obviously it figures to pay more than the parlay.

Obviously. But unlike every other horizontal wager, this one only pays out 40% of the pool to the winners, so one would think the value relative to the parlay would be lower.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Obviously. But unlike every other horizontal wager, this one only pays out 40% of the pool to the winners, so one would think the value relative to the parlay would be lower.

the carryover is large enough now that it's mitigating the impact of the takeout.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by GPK

I hit 5 of 6 (ran 2nd with Bourbon Courage in the race I missed) this past Sat on a $12 ticket. I will continue to prob throw between $15-$20 a ticket for kicks and giggles to maybe catch a small payoff, but noway am I gonna throw a few hundred dollars at what is virtually now, an unhittable ticket.

That "small payoff" is now routinely at the point where it pays better then the Pick 4 which we have no problem throwing 75-100 at. Also am I the only one to think the "Parlay" in this respect is a mythical creature. Isn't the parlay plowing everything you won in the previous race into the next. Wouldn't that crush the odds by race 5 and 6. And to parlay would mean that you would have to hit six singles in a row to reach the "Parlay" payout .. Good luck with that. I'd be interested in hearing why I am way off base... Been there many times.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by jms62

That "small payoff" is now routinely at the point where it pays better then the Pick 4 which we have no problem throwing 75-100 at. Also am I the only one to think the "Parlay" in this respect is a mythical creature. Isn't the parlay plowing everything you won in the previous race into the next. Wouldn't that crush the odds by race 5 and 6. And to parlay would mean that you would have to hit six singles in a row to reach the "Parlay" payout .. Good luck with that. I'd be interested in hearing why I am way off base... Been there many times.

It is somewhat mythical and your points are correct. It's just used as a baseline because it's the bet that aligns best with multi-race wagers structurally.