Questing or My Miss Aurelia?

[Sightseek]

Who would get your vote for the 3 Year Old Filly Eclipse?

[blackthroatedwind]

I would give it to Contested before My Miss Aurelia.

[Calzone Lord]

Questing should get it.

The Asmussen horses rarely improve and often fail to hold form when he gives them a true layoff.

My Miss Aurelia's campaign was a great success compared to others who started in that barn and were strong 2yo's, like Hot Dixie Chick. She was a disaster at 3,

For a long time -- Asmussen's numbers were well below his par 1st off the layoff, 2nd off the layoff, and 3rd off the layoff ... no one keeps tracks of 4th off the layoff...but he works horses slowly and doesn't get them back.

Tiz Wonderful's 3yo campaign was an utter atrocity. I've never liked him bringing horses back when they're given a true layoff instead of just a freshening.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would give it to Contested before My Miss Aurelia.

I thought My Miss Aurelia ran an excellent race today and will likely take votes for having a victory over Questing (I personally consider only the Cotillion as a "win over" since Questing was vanned off in the Ladies Classic) and being second in the Ladies Classic. I get your point though, but it is no surprise that My Miss Aurelia is the leading contender for the reasons above and having more "popularity."

My vote would go to Questing.

[Calzone Lord]

Horses like Questing who are in great form but only for a short while, and go sour always seem to get the short end of the stick in the Eclipse Awards.

I posted this Asmussen stat right before he brought Rachel Alexandra back from her layoff during the week of her 4yo debut:

Here are Asmussen's stats with layoff horses since 2004:

96-for-643 (14.9% wins) $1.22 ROI - basically you lose 2.5 times more than the takeout - or 39% on every dollar bet.. and 643 races is a big sample.


Here are Asmussen's stats with layoff routers since 2004:

17-for-159 (10.7% wins) $0.65 ROI - you're losing 67.5% on every dollar bet. An unbelievable amount.


It's pretty obvious that Asmussen has very little talent with getting horses ready off of a layoff ... I guess just look at the silly choice of workmate he choose for RA's last work - and the curious comment he made about expecting her to go 1:12 .. she'd have needed like a 21 flat final quarter to do that.

The real bright spot for RA though - is that I believe these Asmussen layoff stats become undermined in her case because Asmussen is also downright terrible 2nd off the layoff and downright terrible 3rd off of the layoff.

He's an ultimate 'strike while the irons hot' kind of trainer .. but when his horses get hurt or go sour and need time .. you can almost forget them. In RA's case - there was no injury and was no going sour.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Horses like Questing who are in great form but only for a short while, and go sour always seem to get the short end of the stick in the Eclipse Awards.

I posted this Asmussen stat right before he brought Rachel Alexandra back from her layoff during the week of her 4yo debut:

I was looking over the PA Derby chart earlier, is Macho Macho injured?

Interestingly, the most productive out of that race has been the last place finisher.

[blackthroatedwind]

My Miss Aurelia winning the Eclipse over Questing would make absolutely no sense to me whatsoever. It would be a popularity contest for a horse that won an Eclipse last year.

Contested won two Grade 1s, the Acorn and Test. In my opinion, she did more on the track to earn an Eclipse than My Miss Aurelia. Questing ran two gigantic races in major Grade 1s as well. She won the Eclipse on the racetrack....though more and more this doesn't seem to be an overly important venue for some voters.

[Calzone Lord]

Yeah -- the flaw is with the voter.

Some of them might make the Cotillion out to be like a definitive head-to-head match-up. They will also award My Miss Aurelia a lot of extra credit for her result in the BC Distaff with no real regard for trip.

The great performances by Questing at Saratoga might be unrated by voters not able to discern the quality of the performance.

This one was a crazy year for the 3yo filly eclipse: http://test.drf.com/eclipse/2005/pps/3f.pdf

If you get a chance this week, see if the Le Prince race can be discovered and posted.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I was looking over the PA Derby chart earlier, is Macho Macho injured?

Interestingly, the most productive out of that race has been the last place finisher.

I don't know.

It looks like he's getting his first layoff ever, whether injury or freshening.

[KirisClown]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

This one was a crazy year for the 3yo filly eclipse: http://test.drf.com/eclipse/2005/pps/3f.pdf

The voters got it right with Smuggler.. I remember there being some insane calling for Indian Vale to win even though she had zero Grade I wins.

[Calzone Lord]

The most startling thing about looking at Indian Vale's past performances -- is seeing that Angel Cordero Jr, rode her.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The most startling thing about looking at Indian Vale's past performances -- is seeing that Angel Cordero Jr, rode her.

He was 62 at the time. 25% of his winnings were to go to Hurricane Katrina relief efforts. I am pretty sure he rode another horse that day, called "Yes Yes Yes"

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by robfla

He was 62 at the time. 25% of his winnings were to go to Hurricane Katrina relief efforts. I am pretty sure he rode another horse that day, called "Yes Yes Yes"

Yes Yes Yes must have scratched -- he ran the next day with JRV up

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

This one was a crazy year for the 3yo filly eclipse: http://test.drf.com/eclipse/2005/pps/3f.pdf

Dutrow really turned Sis City around after taking her from Asmussen for $50k.