Paddy Power is already paying off Obama bets as winners

[Riot]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I genuinely don't understand the high degree of confidence in the outcome tonight. I don't understand it from this guy or from people in general.
In most of the key states, Obama has a very small lead in most of the polls.
That hardly makes it a sure thing.

It's that winning one state, even by 537 votes, gives you the electoral college, and thus a big lead.

Again: Obama has so many "sure" Dem states, that he only needs two out of three of Virginia, Ohio or Colorado to win easily. He's starting with a far higher electoral college vote base than Romney is. Romney would have to win virtually all swing states.

Check out the last Rasmussen polls:
General: Romney +1
Virginia: Romney +2
Colorado: Romney +3
Iowa: Romney +1
Ohio: Tie

Rasmussen is (as you've noted) a very "conservative" polling outfit, generally 4+ biased towards GOP, and doesn't poll cell phone owners. So what you are seeing above, is also present in other polling outfits (as you've noted), to a greater extent. For example, the other polls have Obama winning Ohio easily.

Here's a listing of all the national polls for yesterday, with analysis, giving Obama a 90% chance of winning with 313 electoral votes. Romney is only 9% chance of winning electoral college. Obama has had all the momentum for past two weeks.



I don't understand folks like Dick Morris on the right saying Romney is gonna landslide - it's just not there in the polls, no matter which candidate you support. And very, very misleading to say if you are a "national pundit"
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/