National Presidential Election contest thread

[bigrun]

Obama just aced the election
Today's report on CNBC
Un-employment numbers down
Production numbers up
Housing numbers up
Auto sales up


Still time to change your number..

Also, yesterday the Donald made a humanitarian gesture to Obama, he extended the date of his offer to 5pm today....haha, you thought he gave the 5 mil to the Red Cross..

Also Colbert extended his offer of 1 mil to Trump to 5pm today...

[bigrun]

Oct. 31: Obama’s Electoral College ‘Firewall’ Holding in Polls.

Theories that the decline in Mr. Obama’s polls that followed the first presidential debate in Denver would somehow skip the swing states were not looking good — as dubious as the idea that tornadoes “skip” houses.

Instead, at that point, Mr. Obama’s position in the FiveThirtyEight forecast had declined for seven consecutive days. If he stopped the bleeding there, he might still be the Electoral College favorite, albeit a narrow one. But it wasn’t clear where the bottom was.

It turned out, however, that the worst was almost over for him. Mr. Obama had one more terrible day in the polls, on Friday, Oct. 12, when Mr. Romney’s chances of winning the Electoral College rose to almost 40 percent in the forecast. But that was when Mr. Romney’s momentum stopped.

Since then, Mr. Obama’s standing has rebounded slightly. His position in the national polls has stabilized; although the national polls continue to tell a different story about the race than the state polls do; it can no longer be said that they have Mr. Obama behind. Read more…

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[Rupert Pupkin]

For what it's worth, Obama is now given a 66% chance of winning at Intrade. Romney is actually now a pretty big favorite to win Florida. They give Romney a 72% chance of winning Florida. They give Obama a 68% chance to win Ohio.

[bigrun]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

For what it's worth, Obama is now given a 66% chance of winning at Intrade. Romney is actually now a pretty big favorite to win Florida. They give Romney a 72% chance of winning Florida. They give Obama a 68% chance to win Ohio.

Please don't let it come down to Fla again...those old people there don't know how to use those hanging chad ballots...Is Jeb Bush still gov there?

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

For what it's worth, Obama is now given a 66% chance of winning at Intrade. Romney is actually now a pretty big favorite to win Florida. They give Romney a 72% chance of winning Florida. They give Obama a 68% chance to win Ohio.

Or, a different opinion:

As always, these are the TPM poll composites, with all pollsters included, even the GOP ones like Rasmussen and Gravis.

Florida flipped back Red today after it was briefly Blue yesterday because of outfits Gravis and We Ask America.

But regardless, the credible pollsters see it as a one-point game one way or another. So whether it's a 0.5-point Obama or Romney edge, fact is Florida is being decided by GOTV.

Florida and Nevada have seen very little change since a week ago, proving to be the most stubbornly stable of the lot. North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio have edged up half a point or so, which may not seem like much, but it's Democratic direction and at the right time.

Romney and his allies are spending gazillions trying to drag Ohio and Wisconsin back into contention, but the numbers are going the opposite way.

As I noted yesterday, Romney's own support continues to fall.

He is now above 47 percent in just two states—Florida and North Carolina. Being stuck in the 44s to 46s won't get him anywhere near the White House.

State Obama Romney Margin Change from 10/24

National 47.4 46.1 1.3 +1.3

Colorado 48.9 46.3 2.6 +2.7

Florida 48.5 49 -0.5 -0.1

Iowa 48.9 45.2 3.7 +2.8

New Hampshire 48.3 45.2 3.1 +2.1

Nevada 50.3 46.1 4.2 +0.3

North Carolina 46.5 48 -1.5 +0.7

Ohio 49.2 46 3.2 +0.6

Virginia 48.9 46.4 2.5 +2.7

Wisconsin 49.4 46.1 3.3 +0.5

[Calzone Lord]

I see the election going 277-to-261 for Barack Hussein Obama.

Romney will pull off a few upsets. I think he wins New Hampshire. I think he wins Colorado even though most polls show him trailing there.

But, he falls just a bit short in the state of Ohio...and that costs him everything.

[bigrun]

Election 2012 State Polls


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...lls/president/

[Riot]

Okay- get entries in by Monday midnight: Pick the electoral college margin, without going over, of winning candidate. You don't have to name candidate.

In case of tie, getting the winning candidate correct will be the tiebreaker

So far:

311 Romney - joeydb
291 Obama - hi im god
288 Obama - Riot
287 Obama - Ocala Mike
281 Obama - dalakhani
278 Romney - Rupert Pumpkin
277 Obama - Calzone Lord
274 Romney - Dylbert
273 Romney - Rudeboyelvis
269 tie to Romney - clipclop