How Selfish Can Omama Be

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by bigrun

SALON today..

Blue states of Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. On a conference call today David Axelrod promised to shave his moustache of 40 years if Obama lost any of those states, and while he wouldn’t quite go that far on the question of Virginia, he said he was “confident” the president would carry that swing state, too...


and i'll shave my beard if he loses...somebody loan me a straight razor?

From everything I'm seeing, I'm thinking Romney will win Florida, Virginia, and Colorado, but will probably lose Ohio. If he wins those 3 states but loses Ohio, will he have to win a few of the other swing states to win? I think Romney is a solid underdog in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota but I think there is a small chance he could win one of those.

I think he has a legitimate upset chance in Iowa.

Assuming Romney wins Florida, Virginia, and Colorado, which of the other states would he need to win to win the election? This question is for anyone who can answer this.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

From everything I'm seeing, I'm thinking Romney will win Florida, Virginia, and Colorado, but will probably lose Ohio. If he wins those 3 states but loses Ohio, will he have to win a few of the other swing states to win? I think Romney is a solid underdog in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota but I think there is a small chance he could win one of those.

I think he has a legitimate upset chance in Iowa.

Assuming Romney wins Florida, Virginia, and Colorado, which of the other states would he need to win to win the election? This question is for anyone who can answer this.

I posted the latest Rasmussen projections a few post back in this thread. Romney could lose OH and still win, but would have to carry NV, a state which he as never statistically had a lead in, but has always been within 2-3 points of with the same % of undecideds.
OH is critical at this point in that whoever carries it, will most likely take the EC.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I posted the latest Rasmussen projections a few post back in this thread. Romney could lose OH and still win, but would have to carry NV, a state which he as never statistically had a lead in, but has always been within 2-3 points of with the same % of undecideds.
OH is critical at this point in that whoever carries it, will most likely take the EC.

Exactly Elvis. it really comes down to Ohio. Plain and Simple.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Exactly Elvis. it really comes down to Ohio. Plain and Simple.

Actually, no - If Romney wins Ohio, he still has to virtually run the board in the eight swings to get to 270.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Riot

Actually, no - If Romney wins Ohio, he still has to virtually run the board in the eight swings to get to 270.

I think that is likely to happen. If Obama can't carry Ohio, I don't think its likely that he carries the other states. I thnk he carries Ohio and wins the election but if he can't, he is toast in my opinion.

In what scenario do you see obama losing ohio and winning?

[Riot]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I think that is likely to happen. If Obama can't carry Ohio, I don't think its likely that he carries the other states. I thnk he carries Ohio and wins the election but if he can't, he is toast in my opinion.

In what scenario do you see obama losing ohio and winning?

As of today, Obama is ahead in all the swing states but North Carolina. Look at Rupert's anonymous data, it even agrees - but unlike Nate Silver, it colors North Carolina as going blue for Obama. That means Obama would sweep all the swings, and the Ipsos/Reuters Obama electoral landslide would happen.

Obama only has to win 2 out of 3 of Ohio, Florida, Colorado to win. Romney could take all the rest of the swings, but Obama would still win.

Romney has to win all three of OH, FL, and Colorado, plus nearly run the table on the rest (the other 5)

Here is Nate Silvers aggregate of national and state polling as of midnight, tonight (including todays polling)

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Riot

As of today, Obama is ahead in all the swing states but North Carolina. Look at Rupert's anonymous data, it even agrees.

Obama only has to win 2 out of 3 of Ohio, Florida, Colorado to win. Romney has to win all three, plus nearly run the table on the rest.

Obama has lost any advantage in CO and FL and is losing both by your poll. OH is a toss up by every poll other than the 5 lefty polls that the NYT (the bastion of truth) guy "aggregates" ...lolololololol

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I think that is likely to happen. If Obama can't carry Ohio, I don't think its likely that he carries the other states. I thnk he carries Ohio and wins the election but if he can't, he is toast in my opinion.

In what scenario do you see obama losing ohio and winning?

The polls are still open when the exit polling and initial precinct data from OH will be released. NV will typically follow suit. You have it right - OH will sway the election.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

now Florida is trending solidly Obama based upon actual early voting results with massive Democratic turnout greater than 2008. Obama already is leading the early voting by 60%.
you are delusional..

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Exactly Elvis. it really comes down to Ohio. Plain and Simple.

Not according to Queen Aggregator. Obama doesn't even need to show up