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#2
09-11-2012, 07:40 PM
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One of the bums just finished 7th beaten 52 lengths at 28/1. At least it wasn't the shortest price one of the day that knocked me out. 5/1 was the shortest price of any horse during this entire challenge. 
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#6
09-12-2012, 05:06 AM
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Doug.. (and ranger),
Great try. It was a fascinating endeavor and fun to watch. And ranger -- tabbing the dollar loss was an amazing sidebar. What can be gleaned from the exercise with 479 out of 480 hopeless looking horses losing? There must be common denominators... a tick list that eliminates longshots with no chance whatsoever from those with a shot...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#9
09-12-2012, 02:49 PM
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Like with anything else in wagering and investment -- it boils down to value. You never know what price a horse will go off at until betting has closed in pari-mutual wagering. In betting exchanges it is much more simple, because you're locked in at your price when you bet on or bet against a horse. Amazingly, some of these horses went off at relatively insanely low odds. The lowest went off at 5.4-to-1 odds -- but I think two or three others also went off at single digits. Quite a few of them went off at odds in the 11-to-1 to 20-to-1 odds range. An interesting challenge would be one called 'pick 480 horses who look like longshots and are competitive' Based on the two studies I did in this Contest folder -- my standout of the day won at 87.5% and my Bum List horses won at 0.21% From now on, when I make a value line for a race I intend to bet, if a horse looks like a major standout I will assign it no higher than an 88% chance of winning. If it looks like a Bum -- I will assign it a 0.20% chance. As always -- the odds you can get will dictate your decision.
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