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  #1  
Old 08-31-2012, 07:10 AM
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Indian Charlie Indian Charlie is offline
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Actually, his last start, his only one at DMR, was not nearly as atrocious as his previous few starts.
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  #2  
Old 08-31-2012, 07:43 AM
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Travis Stone Travis Stone is offline
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I didn't look at this race at all, but I once did a longshot study over the course of two months one summer. By far the biggest "angle" when it came to big prices winning was third-off the layoff with an improved figure in the second race back, just like this horse.
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  #3  
Old 08-31-2012, 08:06 AM
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Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
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Penn National's 2nd race yesterday was another example of a horse improving dramatically when he finally was allowed to set an uncontested early lead.




Much like the horse at Del Mar who destroyed the field and paid $129.40 -- this one got loose by 1.5 lengths and remained unpressed. He finished 2nd beaten just a half length at 99/1 odds.


http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20120830&RN=2

I have no fear of any horse just because they're getting on a surface they do a little better on. I have no fear of any horse just because they're 3rd off the layoff and might be improving a little bit.

I do have fear of horses who time and time again fail to make a loose early lead -- and who now appear likely to get that free ride on the lead for the first time in a blue moon if not ever.
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  #4  
Old 08-31-2012, 09:32 AM
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cmorioles cmorioles is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone View Post
I didn't look at this race at all, but I once did a longshot study over the course of two months one summer. By far the biggest "angle" when it came to big prices winning was third-off the layoff with an improved figure in the second race back, just like this horse.
That is, by far, my favorite angle. With winners I like the horses to have better back numbers before the layoff that haven't been reached yet. With maidens, that doesn't matter.
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  #5  
Old 08-31-2012, 10:52 AM
PatCummings PatCummings is offline
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For what it's worth, Vergara won the 4th race, the first leg of yesterday's pick six, which was his first win at the meet. This was his 2nd of the day, and thus, the meet.
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  #6  
Old 08-31-2012, 11:42 AM
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bad horses win bad races....and when you get a horse who figures to get loose in a bad race, 60/1 is not that bad to "throw" in for a multi sequence.

the del mar track has definitely played much closer to HP than it has to Keeneland this meet, been pretty fair for polycrap.
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  #7  
Old 08-31-2012, 07:24 PM
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Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
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Headed on the path for a 3rd straight carryover at Del Mar...

A $60 horse won the first leg of the pick 6. The second leg of the Pick 6 was won in dominant fashion by a 12/1 shot with an 18/1 shot second place finisher.
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  #8  
Old 08-31-2012, 08:25 PM
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198 tickets still live after 4 races. They need another price in the last 2 or this will be hit.
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