Del Mar 5 of 6 pays $145,187.40

[South Beach Luv]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

In yesterdays race -- he had the fields best early pace figure -- and no one was going to pressure him because any smart jockey just simply lets horses with forms like that go early on.

Good stuff as always.

I don't know how to read those figures though. I use Brisnet PPs and thought the 6 would make the lead and hopefully run the race the winner ran.

Victor Espinoza (rider of the 6) also rode the 1 in the race before that, and I thought he should have made the lead there too but didn't.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by South Beach Luv

Good stuff as always.

I don't know how to read those figures though. I use Brisnet PPs and thought the 6 would make the lead and hopefully run the race the winner ran.

Victor Espinoza (rider of the 6) also rode the 1 in the race before that, and I thought he should have made the lead there too but didn't.

Victor Espinoza's horse (#6) had the second fastest early pace fig in the race. He's too smart of a jockey to press that longshot eventual winner. The thing most good riders will do -- and he did -- was to just ignore the 60/1 shot who is a little quicker and let it have an easy lead all to itself. The assumption being that the horse will stop no matter how easy a lead it gets.

[Indian Charlie]

Actually, his last start, his only one at DMR, was not nearly as atrocious as his previous few starts.

[Travis Stone]

I didn't look at this race at all, but I once did a longshot study over the course of two months one summer. By far the biggest "angle" when it came to big prices winning was third-off the layoff with an improved figure in the second race back, just like this horse.

[Calzone Lord]

Penn National's 2nd race yesterday was another example of a horse improving dramatically when he finally was allowed to set an uncontested early lead.




Much like the horse at Del Mar who destroyed the field and paid $129.40 -- this one got loose by 1.5 lengths and remained unpressed. He finished 2nd beaten just a half length at 99/1 odds.


http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20120830&RN=2

I have no fear of any horse just because they're getting on a surface they do a little better on. I have no fear of any horse just because they're 3rd off the layoff and might be improving a little bit.

I do have fear of horses who time and time again fail to make a loose early lead -- and who now appear likely to get that free ride on the lead for the first time in a blue moon if not ever.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I didn't look at this race at all, but I once did a longshot study over the course of two months one summer. By far the biggest "angle" when it came to big prices winning was third-off the layoff with an improved figure in the second race back, just like this horse.

That is, by far, my favorite angle. With winners I like the horses to have better back numbers before the layoff that haven't been reached yet. With maidens, that doesn't matter.

[PatCummings]

For what it's worth, Vergara won the 4th race, the first leg of yesterday's pick six, which was his first win at the meet. This was his 2nd of the day, and thus, the meet.

[10 pnt move up]

bad horses win bad races....and when you get a horse who figures to get loose in a bad race, 60/1 is not that bad to "throw" in for a multi sequence.

the del mar track has definitely played much closer to HP than it has to Keeneland this meet, been pretty fair for polycrap.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by South Beach Luv

Good stuff as always.

I don't know how to read those figures though. I use Brisnet PPs and thought the 6 would make the lead and hopefully run the race the winner ran.

Victor Espinoza (rider of the 6) also rode the 1 in the race before that, and I thought he should have made the lead there too but didn't.

Yea and then got him buried on the rail.