Attempt to pick 1,000 straight horses who fail to win

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's a lot trickier than it looks -- especially doing it 24 hours and before scratches.

There have been scores of winners in the 40/1 to 90/1 range in different parts of the country almost every single day. Most of them you never hear about -- other than like that bomb at Calder who won with a Mine That Bird like move and was absurdly mentioned in the Louisville blog and in a thread here.

Today was a very slow day because it was Tuesday and not many tracks ran -- but you had an $88 winner and a $68 winner. You had one race where a 1/9 favorite broke down. You had another race where a horse won by 32 lengths at Finger Lakes. Last Tuesday, you had two 46/1 shots run 1st and 2nd in the same race. Strange stuff even happens on Tuesdays when almost no tracks run.

You see some weird stuff in that some of these bums are way overbet. The horse in the 5th race at Suffolk today went off at 23/1 odds and finished 6th of seven. Amazingly, a horse who looked far better in there went off at 45/1 and finished 3rd.

One thing I used to do pretty well was eliminate horses that I thought had little to no chance of winning. Like Big Brown in the Belmont, for instance.

Given sufficient time and motivation, and sticking to circuits I follow, I'd be able to do this.

[Calzone Lord]

Big Brown had a shoe come unhinged in the Belmont. That's why I believe he was beaten a pole by D' Tara and racing in extreme discomfort suddenly going into the 1st turn. I picked against Big Brown in my column and took Denis Of Cork in that race (who was 2nd and came out of it with an injury)

I was even mocked by several different posters on this board for knocking Big Brown's Preakness win and saying I felt Denis Of Cork might have beaten him had he run that day.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...2&postcount=32

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...5&postcount=12

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...3&postcount=22


Still, saying Big Brown had little or no chance of winning that race is silly. He was by far the best horse in the race and even though his Preakness was a massively overrated performance ... he had a magician like Dutrow Jr. training him and his Kentucky Derby performance was spectacular.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Big Brown had a shoe come unhinged in the Belmont. That's why I believe he was beaten a pole by D' Tara and racing in extreme discomfort suddenly going into the 1st turn. I picked against Big Brown in my column and took Denis Of Cork in that race (who was 2nd and came out of it with an injury)

I was even mocked by several different posters on this board for knocking Big Brown's Preakness win and saying I felt Denis Of Cork might have beaten him had he run that day.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...2&postcount=32

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...5&postcount=12

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...3&postcount=22


Still, saying Big Brown had little or no chance of winning that race is silly. He was by far the best horse in the race and even though his Preakness was a massively overrated performance ... he had a magician like Dutrow Jr. training him and his Kentucky Derby performance was spectacular.

If you recall, you chastised me mightily for my private take going into the Belmont, that I wouldn't have been surprised if he breaks down or DNF's in the Belmont.

You really think a thrown shoe caused that to happen, and I said that he looked like he was a very sore and unsound horse during the Preakness stretch run?

In fact, you called me an idiot for wanting to drop him from the TVG fantasy contest at that point. The only thing that stopped me from dropping him is that I had no idea who could possibly be used in his place, but I was completely convinced he couldn't win.

Maybe you can get Riot to post some article for you explaining how it was the shoe!

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

You really think a thrown shoe caused that to happen,

He didn't throw the shoe -- it remained on his foot and was unhinged throughout the race with what looks like a nail going into his foot with each stride.




It would be like trying to run a race with a pebble in your shoe causing you discomfort.

Big Brown was not seriously hurt -- he came right back and won the Haskell.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

He didn't throw the shoe -- it remained on his foot and was unhinged throughout the race with what looks like a nail going into his foot with each stride.




It would be like trying to run a race with a pebble in your shoe causing you discomfort.

Big Brown was not seriously hurt -- he came right back and won the Haskell.

A nail going into his foot with each stride? You mean the same nail that would have been there anyways?

[Calzone Lord]

Bums for Thursday:

Arlington Race #1: Jacob's Lighthouse

Arlington Race #5: Rockin Afleet

Arlington Race #8: Reckless Moment

Canterbury Race #2: Hearts Don't Lie

Canterbury Race #3: Dangerous Peg

Canterbury Race #5: I Sir Frisk Me Now

Canterbury Race #6: Jayembro and Prince Raj

Canterbury Race #9: I'm the Gold

Calder Race #5: Mom's Wildcat

Charles Town Race #1: Mr Balboa

Del Mar Race #3: Bella Marino

Del Mar Race #9: Princethefifth

Evangeline Race #5: Springville

Evangeline Race #11: Talk About Good

Finger Lakes Race #5: Dear Marylou

Finger Lakes Race #7: Millennium Pride and Mom's Proof

Finger Lakes Race #9: My Wooddrow

Hoosier Race #1: Hav Lota Faith

Hoosier Race #2: C J Cherokee and Backstretch Babe

Hoosier Race #3: Virginia and Tonic

Hoosier Race #4: Jaydee

Monmouth Race #1: Jaz E Jaz

Monmouth Race #5: Six Shooter Kid

River Downs Race #1: Irene the Big One

River Downs Race #4: Mini Miss Tori

Saratoga Race #3: More Falling Stars

Saratoga Race #11: Touch Of Royalty

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Bums for Thursday:

Arlington Race #1: Jacob's Lighthouse

Arlington Race #5: Rockin Afleet

Arlington Race #8: Reckless Moment

Canterbury Race #2: Hearts Don't Lie

Canterbury Race #3: Dangerous Peg

Canterbury Race #5: I Sir Frisk Me Now

Canterbury Race #6: Jayembro and Prince Raj

Canterbury Race #9: I'm the Gold

Calder Race #5: Mom's Wildcat

Charles Town Race #1: Mr Balboa

Del Mar Race #3: Bella Marino

Del Mar Race #9: Princethefifth

Evangeline Race #5: Springville

Evangeline Race #11: Talk About Good

Finger Lakes Race #5: Dear Marylou

Finger Lakes Race #7: Millennium Pride and Mom's Proof

Finger Lakes Race #9: My Wooddrow

Hoosier Race #1: Hav Lota Faith

Hoosier Race #2: C J Cherokee and Backstretch Babe

Hoosier Race #3: Virginia and Tonic

Hoosier Race #4: Jaydee

Monmouth Race #1: Jaz E Jaz

Monmouth Race #5: Six Shooter Kid

River Downs Race #1: Irene the Big One

River Downs Race #4: Mini Miss Tori

Saratoga Race #3: More Falling Stars

Saratoga Race #11: Touch Of Royalty

Jacob's Lighthouse (off at 30-1) actually finished 2nd in a scratched decimated field where the show wagering was cancelled. A 10 horse race scratched down to 5.

CJ Cherokee finished 3rd at 50-1 in a 9 horse field.

Hearts Don't Lie (40-1) just got a nice ground saving trip by Wilfredo Arroyo. Finished 5th, but was maybe only 4 lengths off the winner.

Doug, I think like you said, the hardest part has to be doing this 24 hours in advance, pre-scratches.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by GPK

Jacob's Lighthouse (off at 30-1) actually finished 2nd in a scratched decimated field where the show wagering was cancelled. A 10 horse race scratched down to 5.

CJ Cherokee finished 3rd at 50-1 in a 9 horse field.

Hearts Don't Lie (40-1) just got a nice ground saving trip by Wilfredo Arroyo. Finished 5th, but was maybe only 4 lengths off the winner.

Doug, I think like you said, the hardest part has to be doing this 24 hours in advance, pre-scratches.

The record right now is 281 starts 0 wins 3 seconds 2 thirds and 3 fourths.

Yeah -- CJ Cherokee may have finished 3rd -- but she was beaten 15 lengths and never tried to win ... just grinded past the quitters.

Like you said, half of the field scratched at Arlington. You're left with 5 horses and one of the bums finishes 2nd in what became a real weak race.

One of the horses at Monmouth went off at 15/1 odds and got buried.

This is trickier to do than people think. Rock Hard Ten told me he was absolutely sure he could beat 100 straight morning line favorites -- he quit after just three -- two of them won and the other finished 2nd.

281 down, only 719 more to go.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Still, saying Big Brown had little or no chance of winning that race is silly. He was by far the best horse in the race and even though his Preakness was a massively overrated performance ... he had a magician like Dutrow Jr. training him and his Kentucky Derby performance was spectacular.

That's another thing, his performance drop from KY to the Preakness was huge.

Even without the obvious soreness he showed, he was a great bet against.