8/18 (AP): Million, Bev D., Secretariat (G1's), St. Leger, Hatoof (2)

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by GBBob

What was she last time....4-1?? I hope to get that again, but it's Calabrese so who knows

She's 15/1 ML but yeah, I don't think there is any way a Calabrese horse, coming off a win in the Modesty, with a very good record at AP, who appears to be working just like she did before her last win goes off at that price against these horses.
Obviously Mystical Star, Marketing Mix and the Euros will take a lot of money, but I don't see them as being a lot more likely to win.

But then again it seems like every year I convince myself that some particular horse who ran well on Preview Day is going to win on Million Day....and it never works out.

[Fulla Sheets]

Isn't there some crazy stat about the winners of the Modesty not winning the Beverly D. the same year?

[Fulla Sheets]

I just looked it up. No Modesty winner has ever won the Beverly D. in the same year, but only 11 have tried. Of the 21 years when both races were run, only 4 Beverly D. winners ran in the Modesty.

[PatCummings]

Tentatively...

Jakkalberry w Bayrir/SilverMax w ALL w ALL w Crackerjack King

Then backup plays focusing on Kapitale/Joviality/I'mADreamer in the 4th leg

[Fulla Sheets]

While I'm at it, Arlington Handicap winners are 0 for 16 in the Arlington Million of the same year. Of the 29 years when both races were run, 0 Million winners ran in the Arlington Handicap. But 10 were Europeans and didn't prep in the US.

[dpkovalesky]

Am I crazy for thinking Upperline is going to run huge and have a shot in the Beverly D? I know stidham said before the modesty was a prep going in, or is she just a cut below these?

[hockey2315]

I probably complain about this too much, but how idiotic is the positioning of these races? Rather than put the Secretariat in the pk4, we get a $7500 claimer to close out the sequence. Nothing like going from a $1 million race to a $12,000 race.